Geoffrey Skelley

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — As a whole, incumbents won renomination in U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and gubernatorial nomination contests at a typical rate in 2018. In all, 100% of senators, 99% of representatives, and 95% of governors who sought renomination in Democratic or Republican primaries/conventions won renomination this cycle. — Just four members […]

Governors: The Last Frontier’s three-cornered fight favors the Republicans On Tuesday, an important deadline came and went in Alaska’s gubernatorial race: the final day that a candidate could officially withdraw and not appear on the November ballot. Since former Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK) entered the race on June 1, the final day to file as […]

We’ve been starting Crystal Ball pieces with a few “key points” summing up the article. As we head into Labor Day weekend and the start of the sprint to Election Day, we thought we’d do something different. Instead of key points from this article, here are some key points about this election so far: Pluses […]

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — As of Wednesday afternoon, Gov. Jeff Colyer (R-KS) trailed Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R) 40.6%-40.5% in Kansas’ gubernatorial primary. If Colyer’s deficit holds, it would mark the first primary loss for an incumbent governor in 2018. — If the final outcome is similar to the current vote, […]

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — From 1914 to 2016, presidential cycles featured a higher rate of straight-ticket outcomes than midterm elections, with 74% of presidential-Senate results going for the same party in presidential years. Midterm cycles showed more splits, with just 61% of presidential-Senate results won by the same party. In 21 of 25 […]

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) is once again a small favorite in our ratings, moving from Toss-up to Leans Democratic in his race against state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R). — That ratings change leaves six Toss-ups on the Crystal Ball Senate map: Democrats are defending seats held by incumbents […]

KEY POINT FROM THIS ARTICLE — The Crystal Ball has three ratings changes in gubernatorial contests, all shifts in the Democrats’ direction: Arizona moves from Likely Republican to Leans Republican, Illinois moves from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic, and Iowa moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up. New ratings in Arizona, Illinois, and Iowa Arizona and […]

Editor’s Note: The Crystal Ball will be off for the Fourth of July. We’ll be back on Thursday, July 12. An already turbulent national political environment was rocked by another major development Wednesday afternoon: Justice Anthony Kennedy, the closest thing there is to a swing vote on the Supreme Court, decided to retire. President Donald […]

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Although he lost in West Virginia’s Republican primary for U.S. Senate, Don Blankenship (R) is actively seeking to run in the general election as the Constitution Party’s nominee. His attempt to run in November will likely involve a legal challenge to “sore loser” election rules that prevent a losing […]

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The Crystal Ball has new ratings in the Pennsylvania and Wisconsin U.S. Senate contests, both in Democrats’ direction. In Pennsylvania, Sen. Bob Casey’s (D) reelection bid moves from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic, while in Wisconsin, Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D) race goes from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic. — […]

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE: — Maine became the first state in modern U.S. history to use ranked-choice voting (also known as instant-runoff voting) in a statewide election. But this was not the first time that a state used a form of ranked voting or preferential voting. In the early 1900s, a number of states […]

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Republican primary voters avoided a self-inflicted wound in West Virginia when disgraced coal baron Don Blankenship (R) finished third in the GOP Senate primary. — Much else went as expected Tuesday night. — Five ratings changes this week affect races for Senate, governor, and House, but most importantly broaden […]

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The “Cal 3” initiative is the latest in a long line of proposals to divide California into multiple states. This plan aims to carve up the Golden State into three new states. — While the proposal has little chance of success, hypothetically the fragmentation of California would have notable […]

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE: — As he seeks a third term, Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) is favored to win renomination in what could be a high-profile primary against actress and activist Cynthia Nixon (D). — However, Cuomo often has upset the left and there may be a path for a challenger. That path likely […]

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — The partisan structure of the races for governorships and Senate seats are now exact mirror opposites. — Sen. Angus King (I-ME) and Gov. Tom Wolf (D-PA) get ratings upgrades. — Rep. Elizabeth Esty’s (D, CT-5) retirement gives Republicans an upset opportunity and is another example of how #MeToo is […]

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — By multiple measures — such as retirements, “pure” retirements, and open seats that must be defended — this cycle’s GOP has one of the highest levels of exposure in the U.S. House of any presidential party dating back to 1974. — Republicans already have more retirements than any presidential […]

Gov. Bruce Rauner (R-IL) endured a difficult night on Tuesday. Although he won his party’s primary to earn a reelection shot in November, the contest in some ways confirmed his overall weakness as the most endangered incumbent Republican governor facing the voters in 2018. As such, the Crystal Ball is moving the Illinois gubernatorial contest […]

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Based on the two-party vote, Trump won PA-18 by 20.3 points in 2016 while losing the national popular vote by 2.2 percentage points, meaning the district’s lean was 22.5 points to the right of the nation as a whole. Conor Lamb’s (D) apparent victory margin of 0.3 points in […]

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Missouri independent candidate Craig O’Dear is running for U.S. Senate in 2018 but faces long odds of winning. — Independent and third-party candidates tend to do poorly in most partisan elections, but they have a particularly poor track record in Senate contests. Only 11 candidates in 14 elections have […]

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE — Assuming that a new court-drawn U.S. House map stands, Democrats should be able to cut into the Keystone State’s currently 13-5 Republican House majority. — The new map created one easy Democratic pickup, three Republican-held Toss-ups, and two other GOP seats that might be Democratic targets. — With an […]