If you liked this piece, you should subscribe to my premium newsletter, and you can subscribe on the following links: $70 a year, $18 a quarter, or $7 a month. In return, you get a weekly premium newsletter that dives deep into the finances of the AI bubble. Over the past few months, I’ve published a two part guide to the world of AI debt, an analysis of the (dubious) impact of generative AI on the global economy, deep analyses of the biggest players in the AI infrastructure space like NVIDIA (

Ladies and gentlemen, we are in a glorious, splendiferous, outrageous era of crap!  Some call it “high-yield,” some call it “speculative-grade,” but to those of us living in the real world, we know them as junk bonds, the formerly-sleepy world of below-investment grade debt that’s exploded in the last six years.  Correction: the original copy here had data I pulled from Bloomberg which was incorrect, as it was based on me failing to include already-matured bonds, leaving out the vast majority

If you liked this piece, you should subscribe to my premium newsletter, and you can subscribe on the following links: $70 a year, $18 a quarter, or $7 a month. In return you get a weekly premium newsletter including vast, detailed analyses of NVIDIA, Anthropic and OpenAI’s finances, and the AI bubble writ large. It's a great way to support my free work, and you'll get full access to my massive archive of premium analyses of the tech and finance industry. I just did a two part Hater's Guide To A

This week, the Wall Street Journal ran an alarming illustration of AI’s potential share of GDP that I’d argue did more to muddy the waters than actually telling anyone anything, mostly because its measurement, for whatever reason, covered 2025 to 2032, meaning that six out of the eight years of the analysis were estimates of spending. To be fair, this analysis came from the Brookings Institution’s Stijn van Nieuwerburgh rather than the Journal itself, but I cannot express how profoundly unhelpf

If you liked this piece, you should subscribe to my premium newsletter, and you can subscribe on the following links: $70 a year, $18 a quarter, or $7 a month. In return you get a weekly premium newsletter including vast, detailed analyses of NVIDIA, Anthropic and OpenAI’s finances, and the AI bubble writ large. It's a great way to support my free work, and you'll get full access to my massive archive of premium analyses of the tech and finance industry. I just did a two part Hater's Guide To A

The year is 2026, and you are a hyperscaler CEO. You zip up your Patagonia Vest, type UDPATE CALENDER WHERE WHY to your Muse agent, and it tells you that your CFO has sent you an email about something called a “critical finance meeting,” and you roll your eyes.  You were up until 2AM talking to your 38 GPT-6 agents that were vibe coding a dashboard of “company efficiency wins,” and if anything it’s kind of rude that your CFO is interrupting your “mindfulness hour” where you listen to Andrew Hub

If you liked this piece, you should subscribe to my premium newsletter, and you can subscribe on the following links: $70 a year, $18 a quarter, or $7 a month. In return you get a weekly premium newsletter including vast, detailed analyses of NVIDIA, Anthropic and OpenAI’s finances, and the AI bubble writ large. It's a great way to support my free work, and you'll get full access to my massive archive of premium analyses of the tech and finance industry. On Friday, I’ll publish the second part

The year is 2026, and you are a hyperscaler CEO. You zip up your Patagonia vest, type UPDATE ME ON CALENDOR TOODAY into ChatGPT, and see that you have a meeting with your CFO. They tell you that while they love all those GPUs you’re buying for those data centers that will absolutely get built and totally agree that you should buy more, your company cannot actually afford to buy them at the current pace.  “But we’re one of the single-largest cash-generating companies in the world!” you scream so

If you liked this piece, you should subscribe to my premium newsletter, and you can subscribe on the following links: $70 a year, $18 a quarter, or $7 a month. In return you get a weekly newsletter that’s usually anywhere from 10,000 to 18,000 words, including vast, detailed analyses of NVIDIA, Anthropic and OpenAI’s finances, and the AI bubble writ large.  On Friday, I’ll publish The Hater’s Guide to AI Debt — or, how buzz surrounding OpenAI and Anthropic have created massive concentration ri

According to The Information, in early 2024, Broadcom CEO Hock Tan hosted a “coffee chat” with employees of the recently-acquired VMWare, and introduced them to his particular brand of management: At that time, VMware’s Palo Alto, Calif., campus sprawled over 18 buildings and 100 acres of delicately pruned gardens, an outdoor amphitheater and a turtle pond. Employees enjoyed nice HR perks, too, including child care, marital counseling and an annual $1,000 “wellbeing” allowance for anything from

If you liked this piece, you should subscribe to my premium newsletter. It’s $70 a year, $18 a quarter, or $7 a month, and in return you get a weekly newsletter that’s usually anywhere from 10,000 to 18,000 words, including vast, detailed analyses of NVIDIA, Anthropic and OpenAI’s finances, and the AI bubble writ large. My Hater's Guides To the SaaSpocalypse, Private Credit and Private Equity are essential to understanding our current financial system, and my guide to how OpenAI Kills Oracle pai

You know, sometimes it’s kind of hard to explain the “circular” part of circular financing to people, in the sense that some of the agreements are kind of clunky. NVIDIA funds OpenAI, who then spends that money to rent back NVIDIA GPUs from Microsoft, Google, Amazon, or CoreWeave, and then that money is used…to buy servers from Taiwanese ODMs (original design manufacturers) that build their servers, who then buy GPUs from NVIDIA to put in them. The reason it’s clunky is that people will, even i

If you liked this piece, you should subscribe to my premium newsletter. It’s $70 a year, $18 a quarter, or $7 a month, and in return you get a weekly newsletter that’s usually anywhere from 10,000 to 18,000 words, including vast, detailed analyses of NVIDIA, Anthropic and OpenAI’s finances, and the AI bubble writ large.  My Hater's Guides To the SaaSpocalypse, Private Credit and Private Equity are essential to understanding our current financial system, and my guide to how OpenAI Kills Oracle p

[NVIDIA Company Meeting, the present day, YMCA playing] JENSEN HUANG: We love NVIDIA, don’t we folks? We’re the biggest, most-beautiful semiconductor company, we make the biggest, hottest GPUs for Clammy Sammy and Wario Amodei’s huge, beautiful AI labs, but they can’t afford them because they’re losing so much money! [crowd booing] It’s okay! It’s okay! Big strong men, the biggest muscles, big, beautiful, strong men like Satya Nadella are calling me, begging — they’re begging, can you believe

If you liked this piece, you should subscribe to my premium newsletter. It’s $70 a year, $17 a quarter, or $7 a month, and in return you get a weekly newsletter that’s usually anywhere from 10,000 to 18,000 words, including vast, detailed analyses of NVIDIA, Anthropic and OpenAI’s finances, and the AI bubble writ large.  My Hater's Guides To the SaaSpocalypse, Private Credit and Private Equity are essential to understanding our current financial system, and my guide to how OpenAI Kills Oracle p

If you liked this piece, you should subscribe to my premium newsletter. It's $70 a year, $18 a quarter, or $7 a month, and in return you get a weekly newsletter that’s usually anywhere from 10,000 to 18,000 words, including vast, detailed analyses of NVIDIA, Anthropic and OpenAI’s finances, and the AI bubble writ large.  My Hater's Guides To the SaaSpocalypse, Private Credit and Private Equity are essential to understanding our current financial system, and my guide to how OpenAI Kills Oracle

Guardian investigation finds apparent discrepancy between what tech company has said about its AI capacity – and the number of advanced chips it has in operation

I’ve heard from people in the past that my articles are too long, and I wanted to start by saying that, for the most part, they’re going to stay long, because I feel like the only way for me to make my arguments is to be as specific and detailed as possible about the things I’m talking about.  Then again, sometimes it’s just because I imagine arguments against my work in my head and want to pre-empt them. Something about the AI bubble has made the boosters genuinely insane. They see these othe

If you liked this piece, you should subscribe to my premium newsletter. It’s $70 a year, or $7 a month, and in return you get a weekly newsletter that’s usually anywhere from 5,000 to 18,000 words, including vast, detailed analyses of NVIDIA, Anthropic and OpenAI’s finances, and the AI bubble writ large. My Hater's Guides To the SaaSpocalypse, Private Credit and Private Equity are essential to understanding our current financial system, and my guide to how OpenAI Kills Oracle pairs nicely with m

For a little under a year, everyone — myself included — has compared NVIDIA to Enron, largely because NVIDIA insisted, in detail, that it was nothing like Enron, WorldCom, or Lucent, a potent example of the Streisand Effect that would be much funnier if NVIDIA wasn’t holding up more than 7% of the value of the NASDAQ.  And as I covered in the first part of the Hater’s Guide To NVIDIA last year, there are material concerns about how the company makes money today and will continue to do so in the