Whatever the result of Tuesday’s US elections, Donald Trump will remain president and, most likely, will want to continue as he has, as if there are no checks on his actions. If the Democratic Party gains control of Congress, the question will be whether institutions that were unable to stand up to Trump will try to set limits on him and on future presidents, or whether today’s impunity will be curbed not by institutions but by events that will arise domestically and globally because of America’s current course.
If the Democrats gain a majority in the House of Representatives, they will be able to exert control over executive power, a responsibility that the Republicans abdicated by bending to Trump’s every whim. In that case, the Republicans will not be able to pass laws without Democrats’ support, and the House will be able to investigate Trump, his family and senior officials. The House will also be able to conduct in-depth probes into the contacts of dead sex-offender Jeffrey Epstein, the Iran war, and other issues.
If the Democrats control the Senate, they will be able to hold up the president’s picks for top administration officials, ambassadors and federal judges, including members of the Supreme Court. In other words, a Democratic win would allow legislative authority to try to regain its supervisory role.
Judges at all levels have opposed Trump in several instances. But the Supreme Court decision that the president enjoys immunity from prosecution for official acts has been a blank check for Trump. In very few cases has the court’s majority ruled against him. Perhaps Congress coming under Democratic Party control would focus the justices’ minds on the fact that they, too, are accountable (if only to history), and that the support they have provided Trump will not be something to brag about in future – neither for them, nor for the court. In that case, perhaps even the oligarchs who have invested so much in Trump will control themselves somewhat – if they come to believe that today’s situation may open them to dangers.
The “noninstitutional” factors that could curb Trump’s license could be instability in the economy, seeing as his government has dismantled almost all supervisory bodies; social unrest due to high prices and an ever-larger number of people being shut out of the health care system; the revelation of the limits of US military power, as the war on Iran has indicated. In other words, Trump losing Congress could avert serious dangers for the United States. What’s good for Trump may not be good for America.