Iraqi security officers flash victory signs while riding military vehicles decorated with national flags during a convoy celebrating the complete withdrawal of US troops from Iraq, in Baghdad, Iraq, on 30 September 2026. [Ceerwan Aziz/EPA]

Without pomp or ceremony, almost in secret, the last US soldiers withdrew from Iraq on Wednesday, September 30, closing a circle that had opened in 2003 with the invasion and occupation ordered by president George W. Bush.

It is significant that the withdrawal was completed at an air base at Erbil, Iraqi Kurdistan. The Americans allied themselves with the Kurds in 1991, at the end of the Gulf War, leading a broad coalition of countries that raced to help the Kurds as they faced brutal reprisals from Saddam Hussein for rebelling against his dictatorship. Later, the Americans joined forces with the Kurds of Syria, and together they managed to stop the rampage of the so-called Islamic State, which had taken over large parts of Syria and Iraq after 2014. In both Iraq in the 1990s and Syria more recently, the Americans left the Kurds to their fate. But they have always trusted the Kurds more than any other force in the region. This is underlined by the fact that their final withdrawal was completed on territory controlled by the Kurds.

Erbil is also loaded with symbolism. It is the site of ancient Arbela, near the plain of Gaugamela, where, almost to the day (October 1) in 331 BC, Alexander the Great gained a decisive victory over the Persian King Darius III, conquering the Persian Empire, changing the course of history.

Today, Darius’ descendants are celebrating. The American withdrawal, in the middle of the current US-Iran war, strengthens the hand of the already strong pro-Iranian militias in Iraq that have been attacking US targets in Saudi Arabia and Jordan. It is difficult to see the US withdrawal (albeit planned) as anything other than a defeat. In the 23 years since the US invasion, some 300,000 Iraqis and 4,500 American soldiers have died, with seven of the 18 killed in the war against Iran dying in Iraq.

No one can tell what comes next. Iraq’s people – Kurds included – must deal with the empowered pro-Iranian militias, with Islamic State cells that may emerge from their hiding places, with an always interventionist Turkey. History’s millstones grind onward.

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A Persian win at Gaugamela