Question:
How does the shift toward renewable energy in regions like the Middle East and Latin America reshape traditional power structures tied to fossil fuels, and could this energy transition actually create new forms of environmental conflict?
Discussion:
Ole Jacob Sending, Indra Øverland, and Thomas Boe Hornburg (2020) point out that climate change now sits at the center of global politics, shaping how nations handle both security and the economy (p. 186). Instead of being a background issue, the environment has become an active force in diplomacy and strategy. This is easy to see in regions that have long relied on oil. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Venezuela are under growing pressure to diversify their economies, while newer energy players—Chile, with its solar potential, Morocco’s wind sector, and the UAE’s hydrogen investments—are beginning to gain influence. Gawdat Bahgat (2015) explains that for decades, political power in the Middle East was built around oil corridors and pipelines (p. 52). Now, that same dynamic is playing out around lithium, cobalt, and rare-earth minerals that feed the clean-energy economy.
This shift raises a significant question: will the transition to renewables ease global tensions or shift them elsewhere? Sending et al. (2020) caution that even as cooperation on climate goals expands, national interests still dominate decision-making. In the Middle East, subsidy cuts and shrinking oil-sector jobs are creating social pressure. In Latin America, countries like Chile and Bolivia view renewable resources as tools for independence—but also face protests when local communities feel left out of resource planning.
The Sahel region adds another warning sign. Buddhika Jayamaha, Jahara Matisek, William Reno, and Molly Jahn (2018) describe how drought and environmental stress in Nigeria worsened poverty and opened the door for Boko Haram to manipulate agricultural production (p. 72). Energy insecurity, whether from declining fossil fuels or unequal access to renewables, can trigger similar unrest when governments don’t adapt. Across different contexts, environmental stress and inequality keep reinforcing each other.
The geopolitics of energy transformation, then, are both a challenge and an opportunity. Countries that improve governance and make renewable planning inclusive could turn resource competition into long-term stability. Those who cling to old systems risk replacing one type of vulnerability with another. The hard part isn’t just switching from oil to solar—it’s updating the institutions and mindsets that manage them.
References
Bahgat, Gawdat. “Geopolitics of Energy: Iran, Turkey, and Europe.” Mediterranean Quarterly 26, no. 3 (September 1, 2015): 49–66. doi:10.1215/10474552-3145757
Jayamaha, Buddhika, Jahara Matisek, William Reno, and Molly Jahn. 2018. “Changing Weather Patterns, Climate Change and Civil War Dynamics.” Journal of Diplomacy and International Relations https://blogs.shu.edu/journalofdiplomacy/2019/03/changing-weather-patterns-climate-change-and-civil-war-dynamics-institutions-and-conflicts-in-the-sahel/
Sending, Ole Jacob, Indra Øverland, and Thomas Boe Hornburg. “Climate Change and International Relations: A Five-Pronged Research Agenda.” Journal of International Affairs 73, no. 1 (March 1, 2020): 183–93. https://research-ebsco-com.ezproxy.bellevue.edu/linkprocessor/plink?id=945491c2-b9c3-3394-9547-4ab8ee710a7a