Abstract
For this first stage of the risk assessment project, I decided to look at Nigeria and Bangladesh. They are in different regions of the world, but both are facing major issues with rapid population growth, poverty, and environmental change. Nigeria, already Africa’s largest country by population, could double in size by 2050. This growth is happening while Lake Chad is shrinking and food insecurity is on the rise, which puts more pressure on its government and even its neighbors in the Lake Chad Basin. Bangladesh faces a different but equally tough situation. It is one of the most crowded countries on earth, and climate change is expected to make life even harder with sea-level rise, cyclones, and saltwater intrusion destroying farmland. Both cases show how population, poverty, resources, and environmental pressures overlap to create conflict risks, though the exact issues look different in each place.
Outline
I. Nigeria (West Africa)
A. Population
- Expected to reach around 400 million people by 2050 (United Nations 2022).
- Very young population — more than 40% are under 15.
- Big pressures in cities like Lagos and in the north.
B. Poverty
- About 40% of people live below the poverty line (World Bank 2023).
- Poverty is worst in the rural north, which fuels migration.
- Dependence on oil exports makes inequality worse.
C. Resources
- Lake Chad has lost about 90% of its size since the 1960s (UNEP 2018).
- Rising conflicts between farmers and herders.
- Cross-border tensions over water use with Niger, Cameroon, and Chad.
D. Environment
- Deforestation and desertification spreading in the north.
- Flooding and erosion are getting worse with climate change.
- Environmental decline linked to displacement and extremist activity.
II. Bangladesh (South Asia)
A. Population
- Likely to pass 200 million by 2050.
- One of the densest populations worldwide (~1,200 per sq. km).
- Migration from rural areas into Dhaka is straining services.
B. Poverty
- Poverty rates have gone down, but about 20% remain below the line (World Bank 2023).
- Coastal communities hit hardest by natural disasters.
- Migration patterns deepen inequality.
C. Resources
- Agriculture is vulnerable to flooding and saltwater intrusion.
- Long-running disputes with India over Ganges water allocation.
- Future concerns about Brahmaputra River management.
D. Environment
- Climate change is the biggest threat — sea-level rise could displace 13–20 million by 2050 (IPCC 2021).
- Cyclones and monsoon floods are frequent.
- Salinization is reducing the amount of usable farmland.
Bibliography
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United Nations. World Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results. New York: Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2022. https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf
UNEP. 2018. “The Tale of a Disappearing Lake.” UNEP News and Stories, February 28, 2018. https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/tale-disappearing-lake.
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