Country Chosen: The Philippines
Claims and Interests
Manila's claim rests on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling confirmed that China's nine-dash line has no legal basis, and that none of the Spratly features qualify as "islands" capable of generating a 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ) ("South China Sea Arbitration Award," 2016). The tribunal also found that China had violated the Philippines' sovereign rights at Reed Bank (Recto Bank) by obstructing exploration.
Energy security underscores the urgency: the Malampaya gas field, which supplies roughly a quarter of Luzon's power, is in decline (U.S. Department of Commerce 2024). Reed Bank (SC 72) is the most viable replacement, with U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates placing the region's potential at 5.4 billion barrels of oil and 55 trillion cubic feet of gas (ABS-CBN 2016). Developing it could reduce the Philippines' dependence on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Challenging China's Claim
Beijing's assertion of historic rights, enforced through coastguard blockades and militia incidents, contradicts UNCLOS principles and the 2016 award (AP News, 2024; Reuters, 2024). History alone cannot override treaty-based EEZ entitlements, and the construction of artificial islands creates no new rights ("South China Sea Arbitration Award," 2016).
Proposed Security Solution (Environment + Region + Globe)
Drawing on Diehl and Gleditsch's (2001, Ch. 10) argument that institutions reduce scarcity-driven conflict and McCormick's (2018, Chs. 8–9) discussion of participatory environmental governance, a three-pillar framework could balance energy development with ecological and regional stability:
- Joint Development Zone (JDZ) at Reed Bank — Structured like the Malaysia–Thailand Joint Development Area (Thao 1999), the JDZ would allow resource sharing without prejudice to sovereignty, require environmental impact assessments, and guarantee transparent revenue division.
- Marine Peace Park and Reef Moratorium — Ban dredging, land reclamation, and blast fishing around key reefs; joint patrols and scientific monitoring would help preserve biodiversity and reduce fishery-based tensions.
- Incident-Prevention and Transparency Mechanisms — Establish hotlines, CUES-style protocols, and public environmental dashboards. Tie JDZ profits to compliance so states have incentives to uphold rules.
Why This Matters
The approach separates resource use from sovereignty, aligning economic interests with environmental responsibility and regional peace. It also reflects Diehl and Gleditsch's (2001) insight that conflict prevention is strongest when transparency and shared management replace zero-sum competition.
Bibliography
Diehl, Paul. 2001. Environmental Conflict: An Anthology. Boulder, Colo: Routledge. https://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=nlebk&AN=200605&site=eds-live.
Gomez, Jim. 2025. "Chinese coast guard rams and damages a Philippine vessel off an island in the South China Sea." Associated Press, October 12, 2025. https://apnews.com/article/south-china-sea-thitu-island-philippines-7dfa0e6533236d442271176695039a6d.
McCormick, John. 2017. Environmental Politics and Policy. Environmental Politics and Policy. London: Bloomsbury Publishing.
Permanent Court of Arbitration. The South China Sea Arbitration (Philippines v. China): Award — Key Findings. The Hague: PCA, 2016. https://worldcourts.com/pca/eng/decisions/2015.10.29_Philippine_v_China.pdf
Reuters. 2025. "US Backs Philippine Ally After China Warns Over Vessel Clash." U.S. News & World Report, October 13, 2025. https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2025-10-13/china-tells-the-philippines-to-stop-provocations-after-south-china-sea-vessel-clash
Thao, Nguyen Hong. "Joint Development in the Gulf of Thailand." In Asian Yearbook of International Law, Volume 8 1998–1999, edited by B.S. Chimni, Sik Ko Swan, Masahiro Miyoshi, M.C.W. Pinto, and Surya Subedi. Asian Yearbook of International Law, Volume 8 1998-1999. Vol. 00008. Leiden: Brill | Nijhoff, 2003. https://research-ebsco-com.ezproxy.bellevue.edu/linkprocessor/plink?id=3e13c603-d6a9-3ac3-bc94-8dd207b463f2.
U.S. Department of Commerce. 2024. "Philippines – Energy." International Trade Administration. https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/philippines-energy.
U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). 2023. "South China Sea Energy Overview." U.S. EIA. https://www.eia.gov/international/content/analysis/regions_of_interest/South_China_Sea/south_china_sea.pdf