The Impact of Climate Change on National Security: A Case Study Approach

Introduction

Climate change has evolved from an environmental concern into one of the most pressing national security threats of the twenty-first century. Rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and resource scarcity are not only transforming ecosystems but also reshaping the strategic priorities of states. As White (2020) argues, climate change has redefined security planning by forcing governments to expand beyond traditional military frameworks toward resilience-based strategies. This paper explores the nexus between climate change and national security, examining how environmental instability exacerbates migration, economic disruption, and conflict. Using the United States, the Philippines, and Indonesia as case studies, this assessment examines how nations are adapting their policies to balance sovereignty, economic stability, and human security in an era of global climate risk.

Literature Review

The relationship between climate change and national security has gained increasing attention in both policy and academic circles. Early national security studies focused primarily on military threats and deterrence theory. However, the late twentieth century saw a broadening of security paradigms to include environmental and human dimensions (Hough 2019). Scholars now contend that the effects of climate change, food insecurity, displacement, and water scarcity serve as "threat multipliers," amplifying existing political and social tensions (Kavanagh 2020).

In the United States, climate change is officially recognized as a security threat. The Department of Defense (DoD) identifies rising sea levels, extreme weather, and supply chain disruptions as challenges that "shape the operating environment" (White 2020, 22). Kavanagh (2020) emphasizes that pandemics, migration, and climate-induced disasters are intertwined risks that undermine national and global resilience. In Southeast Asia, studies show that climate insecurity compounds poverty and governance challenges. The Philippines and Indonesia, both archipelagic nations, face rising sea levels that threaten urban populations and displace coastal communities (ADB 2023).

Scholars such as Trombetta (2008) and Dalby (2013) further argue that environmental security must be treated as both a cause and consequence of national instability. Climate change strains economic systems, drives migration, and weakens governance. Thus, the literature increasingly links adaptation policy, renewable energy investment, and disaster preparedness with national security priorities (Ronis 2011). Despite these insights, policy implementation remains uneven, often constrained by political will and short-term economic interests.

Analysis

Case Study 1: The United States

In the United States, climate change has shifted from a peripheral issue to a core element of strategic planning. The Department of Defense describes climate as a "threat multiplier" that intensifies natural disasters, humanitarian crises, and geopolitical competition (White 2020). Coastal military installations, such as Naval Station Norfolk and Eglin Air Force Base, face rising sea levels and flooding, which directly affect their readiness. The Biden administration's 2022 National Security Strategy explicitly connects environmental degradation to global instability, arguing that "climate security is national security."

Domestically, climate change has spurred migration within the U.S., particularly from regions vulnerable to wildfires, droughts, and hurricanes. FEMA reports that between 2017 and 2023, climate-related disasters displaced more than 3 million Americans (FEMA 2024). Economically, extreme weather has cost the U.S. over $165 billion annually (NOAA 2025). Kavanagh (2020) argues that these disruptions highlight the fragility of U.S. infrastructure, particularly in the energy and logistics sectors. The Pentagon's Climate Adaptation Plan incorporates these findings into its long-term readiness assessments, including the adoption of renewable energy and the development of resilient supply chains. However, political polarization and inconsistent funding continue to limit progress.

Case Study 2: The Philippines

The Philippines ranks among the world's most climate-vulnerable nations, experiencing an average of twenty typhoons per year (ADB, 2023). Beyond humanitarian costs, these events destabilize local economies, displace millions, and heighten conflict risks in regions like Mindanao, where poverty and armed insurgency already intersect. The Philippine government's National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) links disaster resilience to national defense, emphasizing risk-reduction strategies through interagency coordination (DENR 2022).

A major national security challenge is internal migration. Rural populations affected by floods and crop losses often migrate to cities like Manila and Cebu, straining infrastructure and public health systems. This internal displacement increases urban poverty and heightens tensions between local governments and displaced populations. Moreover, maritime disputes in the South China Sea intersect with environmental degradation: coral reef destruction and illegal fishing undermine both biodiversity and territorial claims (Beseng and Malcolm 2021).

Internationally, the Philippines relies on partnerships with the United States and Japan to strengthen disaster response and maritime surveillance. These collaborations reflect what Hough (2019) refers to as "ecological interdependence," in which environmental and strategic interests converge. However, as in many developing nations, the Philippine government faces limited resources and political turnover that impede long-term resilience planning.

Case Study 3: Indonesia

Indonesia, the world's largest archipelagic state, faces existential security risks stemming from climate change. Rising sea levels threaten to displace millions; Jakarta itself is sinking at a rate of 10 centimeters per year (World Bank, 2024). The Indonesian government has announced plans to relocate its capital to Nusantara, a $32 billion project aimed at mitigating the risks of urban flooding and congestion. While ambitious, critics argue that the plan diverts resources from broader climate adaptation and environmental protection (UNEP 2024).

Economically, Indonesia relies heavily on natural resource exports, particularly coal and palm oil, both of which contribute to deforestation and carbon emissions. This creates a policy paradox: the industries that sustain Indonesia's economy also exacerbate its environmental vulnerabilities. The 2019 haze crisis, caused by illegal slash-and-burn agriculture, affected air quality across Southeast Asia and strained diplomatic relations with Singapore and Malaysia.

At the security level, the Indonesian National Armed Forces (TNI) has integrated disaster relief into its operational doctrine. This mirrors the shift from traditional defense to humanitarian response, reflecting the human-security framework outlined by Kavanagh (2020). International collaboration through ASEAN has also strengthened Indonesia's ability to address maritime pollution, illegal fishing, and piracy—issues that increasingly overlap with environmental degradation.

Comparative Analysis

Across the three case studies, climate change reveals a common theme: national security cannot be separated from environmental stewardship. In the United States, economic and infrastructure resilience define preparedness. In the Philippines, climate adaptation is often equated with national survival. In Indonesia, environmental management intersects with sovereignty and regional diplomacy.

These countries illustrate how climate-induced threats transcend borders. Rising sea levels in Southeast Asia contribute to regional migration and resource conflicts, which, in turn, affect global trade routes and U.S. strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific. As Dalby (2013) notes, "climate change reconfigures security politics," forcing alliances to evolve beyond military cooperation toward shared adaptation goals.

Policy integration remains the key challenge. While the U.S. embeds climate considerations into defense planning, developing nations struggle with capacity gaps. Financial mechanisms, such as the Green Climate Fund and bilateral partnerships, can help close this divide; however, implementation often lags due to governance limitations. Kavanagh (2020) and White (2020) both argue that addressing climate change requires not just technology but institutional reform—aligning environmental resilience with economic and social policy.

Ultimately, the convergence of environmental and security agendas reflects what Ronis (2011) refers to as "the neglected dimension of national security." Climate resilience strengthens deterrence by reducing domestic vulnerability and fostering international credibility. In this sense, investing in sustainability is not merely altruistic: it is strategic.

Conclusion

Climate change has reshaped the global understanding of national security, transforming it from a primarily military concept into one centered on resilience and interdependence. The experiences of the United States, the Philippines, and Indonesia demonstrate how environmental degradation magnifies migration, economic instability, and geopolitical competition. For the United States, climate adaptation is essential to defense readiness. For the Philippines and Indonesia, survival and sovereignty depend on effective environmental governance.

Future national-security strategies must prioritize climate mitigation as a core function of defense and diplomacy. As Kavanagh (2020) asserts, ending pandemics and addressing climate impacts require the same international cooperation and foresight. White (2020) reinforces this view, emphasizing that redefining threats in terms of environmental risk will determine the legitimacy and capacity of governments in the decades to come. Protecting national security now means protecting the planet.

References

Asian Development Bank (ADB). 2023. Philippines: Country Partnership Strategy (2024–2028). Manila: ADB.

Beseng, Maurice, and James A. Malcolm. 2021. "Maritime Security and the Securitisation of Fisheries in the Gulf of Guinea: Experiences from Cameroon." Conflict, Security & Development 21 (5): 517–539.

Dalby, Simon. 2013. "Climate Change." The RUSI Journal 158 (3): 34–43.

Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR). 2022. National Climate Change Action Plan. Manila: Government of the Philippines.

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). 2024. Annual Disaster Displacement Report. Washington, DC: Department of Homeland Security.

Hough, Peter. 2019. "Back to the Future: Environmental Security in Nineteenth-Century Global Politics." Global Security: Health, Science and Policy 4 (1): 1–12.

Kavanagh, Matthew M., Harsha Thirumurthy, Rebecca Katz, Kristie L. Ebi, Chris Beyrer, Jamila Headley, Charles B. Holmes, Chris Collins, and Lawrence O. Gostin. "Ending Pandemics: U.S. Foreign Policy to Mitigate Today's Major Killers, Tomorrow's Outbreaks, and the Health Impacts of Climate Change." Journal of International Affairs 73, no. 1 (March 1, 2020): 49–68. https://research-ebsco-com.ezproxy.bellevue.edu/linkprocessor/plink?id=05302c9a-e6d0-3cac-98ca-56881e830584.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 2025. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters Report. Washington, DC: Department of Commerce.

Ronis, Sheila R., ed. 2011. Economic Security: Neglected Dimension of National Security. Washington, DC: NDU Press.

Trombetta, Maria Julia. 2008. "Environmental Security and Climate Change: Analysing the Discourse." Cambridge Review of International Affairs 21 (4): 585–602.

United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). 2024. Indonesia: Climate Adaptation Profile. Geneva: UNEP.

White, Daniel. "The National Security Implications of Climate Change: Redefining Threats, Bolstering Budgets, and Mobilizing the Arctic." Journal of International Affairs 73, no. 1 (March 1, 2020): 321–29. https://research-ebsco-com.ezproxy.bellevue.edu/linkprocessor/plink?id=edd04f98-d11e-3b37-80b7-648d970480ce.

World Bank. 2024. Indonesia Country Climate and Development Report. Washington, DC: World Bank.

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Research Paper 3 - The Impact of Climate Change on National Security-A Case Study Approach