Adam Kleczkowski

8 December 2022

One of the strands of my research is to study the impact of climate change on plant and tree health. But this problem goes much wider. There are a lot of commodities that are heavily at risk due to climate change. Whether an individual, a government…

2 December 2022

TL&DR: Flu and RSV continue to be a threat, with an increasing number of cases and hospitalisation. Covid was still in decline last week, but that has now changed, and some age groups see an increase. Note this is week 47 data released in week 48.…

COVID, flu, RSV – week 46 update

As the UKHSA data are out today, here is a quick update. TL&DR: The main respiratory diseases (Covid, flu, RSV) are a bit quiet at the moment. It might be that this trend will continue, but more likely, they will pick up again as more wintery weather…

COVID version 2 – day 12

Finally, my second COVID infection is over. I was already feeling better over the weekend and tested negative this morning. I am now in the category of those with the re-infections. There are quite a few of us in this group, given how many infections…

COVID, flu, RSV – week 45 update

My recent The Conversation article on COVID, flu, RSV – how this triple threat of respiratory viruses could collide this winter was based on the UKHSA data from week 44 (covering weeks 1-43 of the year 2022). The data were updated yesterday, so I can…

Comments on “triple threat” article

I have been asked a question related to the COVID-19 data I included in my The Conversation article on COVID, flu and RSV: It is related to the first figure in my article: In this graph, the cases (“Pillar 1 episodes”) go down while the positivity…

On COVID, seasonal influenza, RSV and other viruses

COVID, flu, RSV – this triple threat of respiratory viruses could collide this winter. But how can we realistically expect the winter to play out? In this new piece for The Conversation, I look at COVID19, seasonal Influenza, RSV, other coronaviruses…

COVID, flu, RSV – how this triple threat of respiratory viruses could collide this winter

As the days get shorter and the weather colder in the northern hemisphere, health officials have warned of a perfect storm of infectious respiratory diseases over the winter months. Outbreaks of seasonal diseases like influenza and respiratory…

COVID-19 – version 2, day 0

I am afraid I got COVID-19 again. Members of my family tested positive on Tuesday and this morning, so I took a test as well – with a positive result. At the moment, it is just a sore throat and persistent cough. Just because it is pretty, here is a…

Coffee – one of the world’s most traded food commodities – under risk from climate change and diseases

Coffee – one of the world’s most traded food commodities – under risk from climate change and diseases Coffee is beloved by all. While that could be a generalisation, it can’t be that far off. Estimates are that 400 billion cups are consumed…

Statistically(in)significant Newsletter

I am starting a newsletter with topical news on statistics, mathematics, epidemics, and life. In my work and writing, I do a lot of Twitter and web research, and in the newsletter, there will be a section containing links to interesting posts, tweets…

The Rt Hon Rees-Mogg, MP, and the logarithmic scale

The Rt Hon Rees-Mogg, MP, and the logarithmic scale It is always interesting – and occasionally amusing – when politicians use mathematics in their speeches. The UK new business minister, Mr Jacob Rees-Mogg, MP, has just referred to logarithms in his…

Day: 21 September 2022

It has been a while since I posted on this blog, or indeed anywhere else. The COVID-19 pandemic is blending into the background (although not going away), monkeypox is disappearing almost entirely from the news and life (almost) as-it-used-to-be is…

Most people with covid-19 are still infectious after five days

A comprehensive study has revealed that two-thirds of people with covid-19 are still infectious five days after symptoms begin, calling into question self-isolation advice Two-thirds of people with covid-19 are still infectious five days after their…

More on excess data and Sweden’s response to the pandemic

A very interesting paper, important for understanding the role of excess deaths data in understanding the impact of #COVID19 and the non-pharmaceutical interventions: The most important consequence is that we must be very careful when interpreting…

How the monkeypox epidemic is likely to play out – in four graphs.

Possible outcomes of the current monkeypox epidemic under four different scenarios. The first case of monkeypox in a human was reported in 1970 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Since then, there have been many monkeypox outbreaks, but they…

July 2022

‘If we have allowed monkeypox to become an endemic virus in the U.S. … it will be among the most unfortunate public health failures in recent times.’Declan Garvey and Esther Eaton, The Dispatch As monkeypox continues to spread both within and between…

29 July 2022

‘If we have allowed monkeypox to become an endemic virus in the U.S. … it will be among the most unfortunate public health failures in recent times.’Declan Garvey and Esther Eaton, The Dispatch As monkeypox continues to spread both within and between…

Poorly Scotland facing deadliest year on record

This year is on course to be one of the deadliest of the century in Scotland with suicides up by at least a quarter and a big rise in fatal heart conditions. More than 31,000 deaths were registered in the first half of 2022, well above the annua

COVID-19: The new summer wave

Back in April 2022, I was talking to Mark McLaughlin @mark_mclaughlin about the future developments for the #COVID-19 epidemic in the UK. I made a prediction: Coronavirus hospital admissions have dropped sharply but waning immunity means that…