Adam Kleczkowski

Day: 3 February 2023

TL&DR: We are approaching a new Covid wave, driven by XBB.1.5. Not very good news for flu and RSV either, and Scarlet fever still at exceptionally high levels. So, a rather gloomy update, hence a nice picture above (Sunset over river Tay from Dundee…

Major infectious diseases in England – Week 3 update

TL&DR Major infectious diseases, RSV, flu, Strep A, and even Norovirus are back to their “normal” seasonal pattern, although numbers remain higher than pre-pandemic. COVID is going down, but I expect another wave to start in a couple of weeks’ time.…

January 2023

TL&DR Major infectious diseases, RSV, flu, Strep A, and even Norovirus are back to their “normal” seasonal pattern, although numbers remain higher than pre-pandemic. COVID is going down, but I expect another wave to start in a couple of weeks’ time.…

Day: 27 January 2023

TL&DR: My China COVID article is out in The Conversation, and I am quoted on Norovirus in The Times. COVID numbers are down, but expect a new wave starting soon. Post-pandemic, RSV, flu, Strep A, and even Norovirus are back to their “normal” seasonal…

Commentary: COVID-19 is running rampant in China - but herd immunity remains elusive

GLASGOW: After nearly three years of keeping COVID-19 under control, China is experiencing a massive new wave of COVID-19 infections. The official figures reporting 60,000 deaths between Dec 8, 2022 and Jan 12 are widely seen as underestimating the…

Why herd immunity will be so elusive in China

After nearly three years of keeping Covid under control, China is experiencing a massive new wave of Covid infections. The official figures reporting 60,000 deaths between December 8 and January 12 are widely seen as underestimating the impact of the…

COVID is running rampant in China – but herd immunity remains elusive

After nearly three years of keeping COVID under control, China is experiencing a massive new wave of COVID infections. The official figures reporting 60,000 deaths between December 8 and January 12 are widely seen as underestimating the impact of the…

COVID is running rampant in China—but herd immunity remains elusive

After nearly three years of keeping COVID under control, China is experiencing a massive new wave of COVID infections. The official figures reporting 60,000 deaths between December 8 and January 12 are widely seen as underestimating the impact of the…

Day: 19 January 2023

Another week, another update. TL&DR: all indicators are going down. We are not out of the woods yet, I think, but it is all good news for Covid, flu, RSV and even Scarlet fever. COVID-19 Admissions and cases are both going down. As described in a…

COVID deaths comparison

Since the COVID-19 epidemic started just over three years ago, a large number of people have died either directly from the disease or in combination with other factors. The exact number will never be known and will always be a matter of controversy…

Day: 17 January 2023

Since the beginning of December, the UK has been experiencing another COVID-19 wave. In my The Conversation article published on 13th December, I predicted: Predictions of a large COVID wave as we head into winter have so far not materialised. The…

Day: 6 January 2023

Covid wave has slowed down although it is expected that it will pick up later this winter. RSV has definitely peaked, with flu cases possibly unreported creating some uncertainty about the peak. Scarlet fever cases are very high. The data for major…

Week 52 – quick update

It is a festive season, and UKHSA is not providing updates on Covid numbers in England. Scotland is still publishing daily updates, so a quick look at where we are with Covid. The new wave is already in England and Scotland data, particularly in the…

Day: 24 December 2022

It has been another week, and new UK data are out. This is an update on where we are with the main viral infections. TL&DR: Good news: RSV wave turned out to be smaller than anticipated and hopefully is on the decline. Bad news: Flu is on the rise.…

China – a lesson from two epidemics

Two immediate observations. Firstly, China did not fail because it implemented a lockdown. They failed because they did not use the time bought by the lockdown to successfully build up protection – by vaccination, by strengthening the public health…

Our third Covid Christmas…

The UK is now approaching its third Christmas of the COVID pandemic. And this year feels different. So, how does the COVID outlook for this winter differ from the previous two? In my new article at The Conversation, I am looking at some key factors…

Our third COVID Christmas – here’s how things might play out

The UK is now approaching its third Christmas of the COVID pandemic. And this year feels different. There’s little question we’re in a better position compared with 2020 and 2021. In 2020, Christmas plans were significantly curtailed, with a range of…

8 December 2022

One of the strands of my research is to study the impact of climate change on plant and tree health. But this problem goes much wider. There are a lot of commodities that are heavily at risk due to climate change. Whether an individual, a government…

2 December 2022

TL&DR: Flu and RSV continue to be a threat, with an increasing number of cases and hospitalisation. Covid was still in decline last week, but that has now changed, and some age groups see an increase. Note this is week 47 data released in week 48.…

COVID, flu, RSV – week 46 update

As the UKHSA data are out today, here is a quick update. TL&DR: The main respiratory diseases (Covid, flu, RSV) are a bit quiet at the moment. It might be that this trend will continue, but more likely, they will pick up again as more wintery weather…