If you want to know how an impeachment vote against President Joe Biden could go down in the House, the lawmakers to watch aren't conservative flamethrowers like Marjorie Taylor Greene or Matt Gaetz.

It's the 18 Republican House members who won races in districts that Biden won in 2020. Those are the ones who will be putting it all on the line.

It’s a no-win scenario for these Biden district Republicans. If these Republicans oppose the impeachment inquiry, they run the risk of drawing their party’s ire, encouraging a primary challenge from the right and invigorating the base against them. If they support it, they risk backing something Democrats have already branded a “purely partisan” endeavor and enraging an electorate that proved in 2020 that they would be willing to vote for Biden over former President Donald Trump, the frontrunner to win the party’s nomination again in 2024.

The Messenger interviewed most of these 18 members from purple districts. For now, McCarthy is getting the benefit of the doubt, with these members approving the impeachment inquiry moving forward and cautiously backing the probe. Few are cheering it on – that has been left to people like Greene and Gaetz – but the reserved support impeachment is getting from these vulnerable members means a great deal more than any celebrating on the right.

Democrats, however, have celebrated the tacit backing these lawmakers are giving McCarthy, believing that it will strengthen their base, improve their candidate’s fundraising, and further tie these vulnerable members to a Republican House majority being pulled to the right.

‘The inquiry was necessary’

Rep. Juan Ciscomani, who represents a Southeast Arizona district that Biden won by just .1 percentage point, said he was good with McCarthy’s call on getting an impeachment process rolling. “The inquiry was necessary and I support that decision,” he told The Messenger.

When asked if he anticipated taking any heat back home for this, the Arizona Republican insisted that “there shouldn’t be any backlash.”

“It's all about transparency and making sure that all the information is out there,” Ciscomani said of the stepped-up probing.

Arizona Rep. Dave Schweikert, who represents a Phoenix-area district that Biden won by 2 percentage points in 2020, said he's fine with leadership moving forward on impeachment "as long as we do it like professionals."

"Not like Democrats did, where it was hysteria," he said, harkening to the historic back-to-back Donald Trump impeachments. "The data and the facts will speak for themselves.”

And when asked Tuesday about the impeachment inquiry, New York Rep. Anthony D'Esposito said, as a former New York Police Department detective, he knows “ the value of seeking the truth through finding the facts, and I am eager to find out exactly what the truth is behind the allegations surrounding President Biden and his family.”

Avoiding the question

That cautious validation for McCarthy from members like Schweikert, Ciscomani, and D'Esposito is countered by the way other Republicans representing districts Biden won just flatly didn’t want to talk about impeachment.

A tight-lipped California Rep. Young Kim, who represents a Southern California district Biden won by 2 percentage points in 2020, raced through a gauntlet of reporters asking about impeachment.

The two-term lawmaker stared straight ahead and strutted defiantly as questions about whether she supported McCarthy’s rollout strategy — or at least appreciated that he’d spared her, so far, from having to take a bruising authorization vote — trailed behind her.

A series of these vulnerable Republicans have avoided commenting on the issue, including John Duarte, whose California Central Valley district backed Biden by over 10 percentage points; David Valado, whose similar district went for Biden by 13 percentage points; Mike Garcia, who represents a district Biden won by over 12 percentage points on the outskirts of Los Angeles; Tom Kean, whose Northern New Jersey district backed Biden by near 4 percentage points; and Brian Fitzpatrick, whose Philadelphia suburbs district went for Biden by over 4 percentage points.

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images; ROBYN BECK/AFP via Getty Images; Andrew Lichtenstein/Corbis via Getty Images

‘Impeachment should not be… a tit for tat’

It was clear, however, in conversations with some vulnerable members that there are concerns impeachment could take Republican focus away from issues that matter to voters.

“Impeachment should not be, and must never be, political in nature or a tit for tat revenge game, and should only be used if the facts and evidence warrant it. As of today, the House has not met the high bar of impeachment,” said Rep. Mike Lawler, a New York Republican whose Hudson Valley district backed Biden by over 10 percentage points.

He added: “While the investigation moves forward, and there are many questions still unanswered, it is imperative that Congress continue its efforts on behalf of the American people focused on addressing affordability, ensuring public safety, securing our border and fixing our broken immigration system, and increasing American production of energy.”

Rep. Jennifer Kiggans, a Republican who represents a Virginia tidewater district Biden won by 2 percentage points, emerged from Wednesday’s GOP conference meeting confident that leadership could dual-track her top priority and their swirling investigations.

“We need to make sure we're funding the government. That's why we were sent here,” she told reporters at the Capitol, stressing that a looming shutdown would stun benefits-dependent constituents like military veterans, Medicare and Social Security recipients, and unsuspecting people “who are just wanting to pay their bills.” “This is where my priority continues to be. How are we getting our economy back on track,” she added.

The first-term lawmaker offered guarded support for the impeachment inquiry McCarthy rolled out Sept. 12, but noted that it’s far from a done deal.

“I think there's enough information that's out there that wouldn't be out there if Republicans hadn’t asked questions initially,” she said of House investigators’ work to date. “But I think there’s some information that still needs to be found out.”

Rep. Nick LaLota, a New York Republican who represents a Long Island district Biden won by .2 percentage points in 2020, said it wasn’t his place to dictate impeachment strategy — ”It’s the speaker’s call, not mine,” he told The Messenger — but didn’t seem shaken by the looming fight.

Another New York Republican, Rep. Brandon Williams, was supportive of the inquiry. Williams represents a Central New York district that Biden won by over seven percentage points.

“Is Joe Biden a crook? The only way to know is to get the immediate and full cooperation of the DOJ, FBI, & Treasury. The American people want answers to these mounting allegations and eyewitness reports,” he said in a statement. “This inquiry will be held in full view of the public and not behind closed doors.”

And Rep. Marc Molinaro, a freshman lawmaker whose upstate New York district backed Biden by nearly 5 percentage points, said tangling with Biden wasn’t on his personal to-do list.

“I didn’t come here to impeach anybody. But the responsibility of Congress is to provide the appropriate oversight,” the New York Republican told reporters after the GOP’s first post-recess huddle. Molinaro said ignoring the “questions of impropriety” raised by House investigators would shirk their collective duty to serve as an “appropriate check and balance” to the executive branch.

“At the same time, we’ll be focused on a lot of issues facing the people that I represent,” he said of his preferred outcome.

‘Beholden to Trump’

Whether Republicans like Kiggans or others are eager to comment on the issue, Democrats are jumping at the chance to tie them to impeachment, believing polls that show voters in these 18 districts view impeachment of Biden as primarily a political tool for Republicans.

“This political stunt will doom vulnerable MAGA Republicans, particularly those representing districts won by President Biden in 2020, and House Majority PAC looks forward to defeating them in 2024,” said Abby Curran Horrell, the top operative at the top Democratic outside group focused on House races.

Courtney Rice, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said the impeachment announcement “makes clear that so-called moderate House Republicans and Kevin McCarthy are beholden to Trump and the extremes of their party, not the American people.”

"The split-screen of MAGA House Republicans pursuing a purely partisan agenda while House Democrats fight to rebuild our economy and create jobs will show voters once and for all that only one party is focused on the issues facing everyday Americans,” Rice added.

“We trust our members to make the judgements on their districts for themselves,” said a GOP strategist involved in House races that was granted anonymity to candidly discuss strategy. “To the extent that anybody is advising them from a political perspective is just, articulate your case.”

Lindsey McPherson contributed to this report.

Warren Rojas

These House Republicans Will Make or Break McCarthy’s Impeachment Inquiry