A crowd-funded probe into the contentious AUKUS pact will be warned that Australia is not prepared for any potential nuclear accident at naval base HMAS Stirling, arguing a worst-case failure could trigger explosions, mass evacuation and long-term environmental contamination.

As scrutiny intensifies over the $368 billion defence program, former public health official Colin Hughes will set out a hypothetical chain of events at a public hearing in Perth on Monday, in which structural failure at a submarine support facility escalates from industrial fire to radiation emergency, overwhelming hospitals and forcing exclusion zones to expand across surrounding suburbs and waterways.

HMAS Stirling in Western Australia will host a rotating presence of US and UK nuclear-powered submarines.Trevor Collens

Hughes, a former head of Public Health East Perth and a member of activist group the Medical Association for the Prevention of War, argues Australia lacks a comprehensive nuclear emergency framework beyond limited spill-response planning, warning that even a non-weapons nuclear incident could have “multi-decade consequences” for communities and the environment.

In an emotive and descriptive submission, Hughes describes emergency crews initially treating a conventional disaster at the Perth base before radiation alarms begin sounding, prompting withdrawal, containment operations and large-scale decontamination as contamination spreads on prevailing winds.

“Twisted steel hangs from shattered structures,” his evidence says. “Fires burn in dozens of locations. Radiation alarms on emergency vehicles begin sounding. Some responders stare at the readings, unsure whether the instruments are malfunctioning. Commanders quickly realise this is not a normal fire.”

It further describes hospitals rapidly becoming overwhelmed, evacuation zones expanding across suburbs, and mass disruption as residents attempt to flee while emergency authorities order others to shelter indoors.

Critics of the nuclear submarine plan have claimed that the deal would eventually oblige Australia to take high-level radioactive waste from the US and Britain. Defence Minister Richard Marles has said that would not happen.

The federal government’s Australian Submarine Agency is developing a “comprehensive safety management system” for nuclear-powered submarines, drawing on US and UK expertise and Australia’s 70-year “unblemished track record” of operating nuclear facilities and conducting nuclear science activities.

Operational waste will initially be stored on Defence sites, with further technical work under way to identify potential interim and permanent disposal pathways, including within the Defence estate for intermediate and high-level waste.

It says while “defuelling” was not expected for decades, planning had begun for transport, storage and disposal systems requiring specialised facilities, trained personnel and community “social licence”.

The public inquiry, designed to air scepticism, has further exposed major divisions within the Labor movement over the deal, with former prime minister Paul Keating and retired Labor frontbenchers Gareth Evans, Kim Carr, Doug Cameron and Bob Carr criticising the party’s support.

Carmen Lawrence, former premier of Western Australia, also last week also criticised the lack of public information about potential nuclear risks linked to the project.

The inquiry is chaired by Peter Garrett, a former Labor environment minister, who defended the inquiry’s purpose after senator Raff Ciccone last week dismissed critics of AUKUS as relying on “nostalgia”. He said Australia must respond to the world “as it exists today, not as it existed in the past”.

Garrett told this masthead public scrutiny of AUKUS was being undermined by political dismissal rather than engagement with evidence.

“In choosing to deride those with the nerve to ask questions rather than actually debate the issue, Senator Ciccone illustrates perfectly why so many people are losing faith in the major parties,” Garrett said.

“It is not enough to assert confidence in a program of this scale. Australians are entitled to see the reasoning, the safeguards, the assumptions, and the risks tested in detail.”

Inquiry co-commissioner Karina Lester, a Yankunytjatjara woman and second-generation survivor of the British nuclear tests at Emu Field in South Australia, said nuclear debate must reflect Australia’s history.

“My father was blinded by a nuclear test in Australia,” she said. “I won’t apologise for asking questions.”

Former prime minister Scott Morrison – who created the AUKUS pact with his American and British counterparts in 2021 – has called on his successor, Anthony Albanese, to do more to explain the strategic rationale as a counterweight to China’s growing military might in Asia.

Home

‘Twisted steel, shattered structures’: AUKUS inquiry warned of nuclear disaster risk