I don’t want to seem too obsessive on the subject of the Mets signing/not signing Pete Alonso to a long-term contract, especially because my last two articles on that subject might appear to have been totally wrong-headed about Alonso’s future. Here https://authory.com/app/content/a7b7f7de76447491baf45cc62b7b0dd41 and here https://authory.com/app/content/af56cf7e3ba0b444591648e422b987d12 , I argued that the Mets would be wise to avoid a long-term, megabux deal with Alonso because of the serious downside to such a commitment, namely that the players most comparable to him have historically crashed and burnt to a crisp in the long run.

But, I hasten to remind you, they did okay in the short run, many of them continuing to slug in their very early 30s, as Alonso is doing (and then some) in 2025, the one year that they signed him up for in the end. Again in 2026 he will become a free agent, and again the question is being asked, “Should they sign him to a long term megabux deal?”

And again my answer is still “No.” Take the magnificent MVP-type year he is having, count your blessings, and let some other hapless team sign him in the unlikely hope that he will perform well into his late thirties.

Having him play out his career with the Mets has its attractive side, and that attraction is not all sentimental. If they offer him a 3- or 4-year deal, for let’s say 80 or 90 million dollars, a very generous offer, and he decides to play for the Mets for that period of time, Mets fans will be deliriously happy. And it’s a fair gamble for the team to take, hoping that Alonso will be productive into his mid-thirties. Odds are, he won’t be, but odds are that he’ll enjoy another productive season, maybe two, before time takes its toll on him. When he begins to decline somewhere in the middle of that contract, at age 34 or 35, the Mets may have the good sense to recognize his decline and cut back on his playing time, despite the enormous amounts of money they will be paying him to sit on the bench, pinch-hit occasionally, and put in a few games at DH.

They haven’t always recognized the sunk-cost fallacy with their other aging and declining superstars—as I’ve pointed before, they ignored this principle with Mike Piazza and it cost them dearly. But this is a different owner, so perhaps smarter heads will prevail. Signing Alonso to a medium-range deal isn’t the worst mistake they could make.

Problem is, there are all those other teams (I count six or seven of them) who will look at Alonso’s MVP-type 2025 and offer him the moon, roughly doubling those figures I pointed to above: an 8-year, 180-million dollar offer is within the realm of possibility for some hopeful, deep-pockets club willing to gamble on Alonso beating the odds and being productive all through his thirties, and the Mets would be foolish to match such an offer. (The Yankees are the most likely club to make such an offer: their current first baseman, Paul Goldschmidt, is on a one-year deal now, and very unlikely to be renewed, while the Yankees would enjoy signing Alonso for the frisson their fans would feel, outbidding the Mets precisely as the Mets outbid them this year for Juan Soto.) Alonso will be tempted to accept a long-term offer like that one, since at the end of four years, he’s very unlikely to get a repetition of that offer. Much better for him to take the longer-term, bigger-bux contract now than risk getting no offer at the end of the shorter-term, lesser bux deal.

My reasoning there is consistent with what I wrote about his comparables, the great majority of whom would have gotten no offer at all by their mid-thirties. They had all retired by then, or had put up such consistently awful numbers for several seasons that they remained on MLB rosters only because of the cost their teams had sunk into them. These comparable players, listed on baseball-reference.com six months ago when I wrote my first two Alonso-contract articles, seem not to have changed much today. I don’t know if this is because bb-ref doesn’t update their comparables-lists until the current season is in the books or because, despite Alonso’s recent spectacular numbers, his comparable players list is still essentially the same. Such stalwarts as the Davis triplets (Khris, Chris, and Glenn), Richie Sexson, Jim Gentile, Cecil Fielder, Nate Colbert, Tony Clark, Ryan Howard et al. still top the lists, all grossly oversized first-basemen like Alonso.

And all sluggers whose skills suddenly and precipitously diminished sharply in their mid-thirties.

So my advice still applies: sprint away from any contract that pays Alonso a star-slugger salary into his late thirties.

Instead, I would advise the Mets (after their decent offer of three or four more years fails, as it very well may) to allow Alonso to leave, and shore up their infield by moving their star shortstop to first base.

I know, I know, Francisco Lindor is still playing a stellar shortstop in his early thirties, but all things must end, and Lindor’s fielding abilities translate well into a move across the diamond. By moving him to first base, Lindor’s career as a hitter will resolve their first-base questions for much of the next decade. (Lindor is slightly older than Alonso, but they’ve already gambled on a bigbux contract for him through 2031, which is another reason not to keep two aging players in your daily lineup in their late thirties.) By moving Lindor to first base, that solves another “problem” the Mets are facing, of having too many good young middle infielders hungering for playing time.

You can’t, of course, actually have too many good young infielders, but it is a problem if you have five men on your roster who can play 2b, 3b, and SS full-time. Now the Mets have Lindor and Acuna and Mauricio who can all play shortstop (and very likely hit more than well enough to hit at the top of the batting order) plus Brett Baty and Jeff McNeil who can both play a decent third and second base. McNeil and Lindor are both in their thirties but still can play, and Mark Vientos is in his twenties and still has a lot of unfulfilled potential. That makes six men for three positions. The ideal arrangement, to my mind, is to start Lindor at first base, Acuna at second, Mauricio at shortstop and Baty at third, with McNeil continuing to back up at second and third (and play in the outfield as well) and Vientos backing up 3B and 1B while platooning with McNeil at DH. Their infield will be set for years to come, more than adequately and very affordably.

“Affordably”? Am I proposing this arrangement in order to save billionaire owner Steve Cohen a few pennies? As previously stated, that’s the least of my concerns. Assuming (correctly) there is some theoretical limit to Cohen’s spending, I’m suggesting that the money saved on Alonso’s next contract should be diverted to the Mets’ other needs. Centerfield, for example, is a position they have not spent a fortune on, but they need to. Instead of spending 150+ million on Alonso, they can probably find some solid centerfielder in his twenties who would turn one of their weaker positions into one of their stronger ones, with some assurance that centerfield will be manned more than adequately for the length of his contract. I haven’t explored the Free-Agent centerfielder options, but there are always good young outfielders available for the right price, either as Free Agents or in a deal, and Cohen should send his money in that direction rather than shoring up an already over-populated infield.

And while I’m on the subject, let me also apply this philosophy to the issue of the Mets’ closer. Edwin Diaz is in the same position as Alonso, facing a player-option after 2025. He will very likely test the FA market, and the Mets should allow him to test it and to leave. Diaz is in the position, like Alonso, of being able to field multiple long-term contract offers that will almost surely overpay him in the long run. Much wiser for Cohen to invest his billions in a long-term contract for some younger closer-type than to hope that Diaz will be able to maintain his skills into his late thirties. They currently have on their roster some young relievers who may be ready to move into the closer role, so they could either shore up their middle relief or invest in a new star closer, depending on the best young reliever available.

If the Mets lose Alonso and Diaz after this season, I suspect all will not be lost, as their fans may well bemoan. Losing them might be the smartest move Steve Cohen has ever made.

Steven Goldleaf

Alonso threedux