With only two weeks left until the New Hampshire primary, it’s still not clear whether the Jan. 23 contest will be a nail-biter or a total snooze.

A pair of new GOP polls released on Tuesday told two very different stories of the first-in-the-nation primary. The race could be down to the single digits with Donald Trump only 8 percentage points ahead of Nikki Haley, according to a University of New Hampshire/CNN survey.

But Trump would cruise to victory with a nearly 20-point lead over Haley in another poll conducted by Suffolk University, the Boston Globe and USA Today around the same time.

“I don't know which is right. I know one of them is wrong,” said Dave Carney, a veteran Republican strategist in New Hampshire. “Can’t be both.”

The dueling polls, both conducted during the first week of January, led some political watchers to split the difference on Tuesday. The surveys also illustrated the hurdles Haley may face against the former president in New Hampshire despite her upward momentum there.

“Haley's probably in a better spot than what the Boston survey says and maybe not quite as strong as what UNH suggests,” said Jim Merrill, a New Hampshire Republican strategist. “The basic point remains the same: Two weeks out, she's in striking distance.”

The dynamics in New Hampshire will remain in flux until Iowa holds its first-in-the-nation caucuses next week. If Trump has a decisive victory there, he could ride the momentum to New Hampshire and upend the historical trend of Iowa and New Hampshire selecting different winners. Haley could also see a Granite State boost if she outperforms expectations in the Hawkeye State.

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“A lot of this is all going to be based on momentum because of a lack of ground game, except for Trump on the ground,” Carney said. “If someone does better in Iowa than expected, it helps in New Hampshire. They underperform, it hurts them.”

Part of the discrepancy between the two New Hampshire polls could be the nature of the sample each survey used. Forty-five percent of respondents in the University of New Hampshire poll, which showed a closer race between Trump and Haley, were independents. Only 39% of the sample was made up of independent voters in the Suffolk survey.

“You can see two polls conducted at the same time come up with different results for a variety of different reasons,” said UNH pollster Andy Smith, noting that is especially true for primary polls. “There's a lot of variability in methodologies, how people are reached.”

Haley performed better in the poll with more independents, and she is counting on unregistered voters and Democrats to cross over and support her in the Republican primary. That task is easier said than done, especially because Chris Christie is competing for those same voters. A new super PAC has cropped up to help Haley pull it off.

“It is a Republican primary, after all. Cloak and dagger methodologies just don't stand up when you look at exit polls every four years,” said Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos, whose poll had the smaller sample of unregistered voters. “Basically three to one, Haley beats Trump among independents, but not by enough to offset.”

The former South Carolina governor may also grow her support if opponents like Christie or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis drop out of the race before primary day, but neither have indicated that they’ll do so. Plus, DeSantis’s supporters could vote for Trump over Haley in a whittled-down field if he were to drop out. Christie has also questioned whether his supporters would vote for Haley if he left the race.

Trump led both New Hampshire polls but is on track for a much closer race than in Iowa. The gold standard poll there showed him with 51% of support among likely GOP caucus goers in December and 32 points ahead of the second place DeSantis. The setup is a reversal for the former president, who lost the Iowa caucuses in 2016 and went on to notch his first big victory in the New Hampshire primary days later.

“So many polls had President Trump ahead by so much for so long. That surprised me because we know things generally tighten up towards the end,” said New Hampshire state Republican Party Chairman Chris Ager, who is neutral in the primary. “That’s just a natural part of what's happening. Things tighten up.”

Haley’s campaign was eager to highlight the UNH poll that shows a closer race in the state. New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, who endorsed Haley, called the UNH poll “very accurate” during a radio interview and repeated his call for Christie to drop out.

"This poll is more proof of what we already knew: this is a two-person race. Nikki Haley is surging, Donald Trump is dropping, and the DeSantis campaign obituary is being written," Haley campaign spokeswoman Olivia Perez-Cubas said.

For his part, Trump ignored the UNH survey on his Truth Social platform, where he shared more than a dozen posts about other polls on Monday and Tuesday. But the UNH data could prompt Trump to hit Haley even harder over the next two weeks.

Earlier this week, a pro-Trump super PAC went on the air with a $1.3 million TV ad campaign slamming Haley on immigration in New Hampshire. MAGA Inc. repeated those attacks in a statement to The Messenger on Tuesday.

“President Trump is the only candidate who will secure our border — Nikki Haley doesn't even think illegals are criminals. Every American who wants to secure the border, reignite our economy, and restore peace around the world must get out and vote for President Trump in their state primary!” said spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt.

“I bet they're freaking out,” said Smith, the UNH pollster. "What you're gonna see, which has already started, is they're gonna start campaigning hard — and negatively — against Haley.”

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Dueling New Hampshire Polls Present Confusing Snapshot of State of Trump’s Primary Lead