By: Sophie Tatum

Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert built her brand on shock value. From her first days in office, she vowed to carry her “Glock to Congress,” and joined fellow hard-line Republicans who purported federal election fraud over the 2020 presidential election results.

But Boebert's surprise decision last month to run for the vacant seat in the state's 4th Congressional District instead of for re-election to her current seat is being interpreted as a major sign that she fears voters may be tiring of all the drama. And Boebert made unwanted headlines again this past weekend with an alleged altercation with her ex-husband.

"It clearly indicates that she was not confident in her ability to win the Third District and that she felt her chances were better in a district she had not run in or represented before,” said Inside Elections Deputy Editor Jacob Rubashkin. “I think it also probably means it's less likely that we see her as a member of Congress next year.”

"It speaks to her unique vulnerabilities," Rubashkin added. "And the poor trend line. ... It's not just that she is vulnerable, we know that, it's that nothing she's doing, nothing that's happened is shoring up her position in any sort of meaningful way."

Police in Colorado are investigating an incident involving Boebert and her ex-husband, Jayson Boebert, while they were at a restaurant on Saturday night, a police department official told CNN.

“This is a sad situation for all that keeps escalating and another reason I’m moving. I didn’t punch Jayson in the face and no one was arrested,” Lauren Boebert said in a statement to CNN on Monday. “I will be consulting with my lawyer about the false claims he made against me and evaluate all of my legal options.”

The incident comes on the heels of the infamous video of her and a date at a Denver performance of Beetlejuice, The Musical (she has since apologized). “It seems like one thing after another … perhaps not only was her political life falling apart, which resulted in this sudden switch to congressional district four but, … there are also probably personal components of this as well. And that does not accrue to her benefit,“ said Eric Sondermann, a Colorado political analyst.

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Still, Colorado political watchers were shocked by her decision to switch districts. “I don't get surprised by much in politics, but that did surprise me,” Patrick Davis, a political strategist based in Colorado Springs, Colorado, told The Messenger.

Even the Colorado Republican Party had choice words about her decision, including state party Chairman Dave Williams, who said the party didn’t “think it was the best move.”

Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) walks down the House steps at the U.S. Capitol on March 11, 2021 in Washington, DC. U.S.

“We felt that she was best suited for Congressional District 3 and that she was in the best position to win reelection and retain that for Republicans.” Williams reportedly told CNN’s Brianna Keilar after the announcement.

But it’s no secret that Boebert faced a tough re-election campaign in CO-03, where she was looking at a potential rematch with Democratic challenger Adam Frisch. The 2022 election between Boebert and Frisch came down to less than 1,000 votes, and Frisch was already vastly outraising Boebert this cycle.

Democrats also had their eyes on Boebert's seat as a target district to potentially flip this cycle. Currently, Republicans hold the majority, but Democrats only need to net five additional seats to win the lower chamber, and The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates the race as “Lean R.”

Still, 2024 is a presidential election year, and former President Donald Trump carried the 3rd district by roughly 8 points — which could have worked in Boebert’s favor. Meanwhile, he carried the 4th district by 18 points, according to Daily Kos' breakdown of presidential election margins by congressional districts.

And her new seat isn’t definite, even if it might be considered a more Republican district. She’s entering into a crowded primary, where the headlines are still relevant to voters.

“I do think that Lauren Boebert has a better shot in the Fourth Congressional District because she has more money in the bank than anybody else running and … she's essentially an incumbent — she has more name ID than anybody else running,” Davis said.

“Now had she done this, three, four months from now, then those other candidates would have had an opportunity to build up their war chest, build up their name ID, get out on the campaign trail a little bit more introducing themselves to voters, but she's a household name in Colorado, and she's definitely a household name in the Fourth Congressional District,” he added.

But it’s still not a sure thing, according to Seth Masket, director of the Center on American Politics at the University of Denver: “A lot of it is just a roll of the dice, just to see what can happen in a crowded field.”

Sondermann echoed Masket's sentiment: "I think the odds are somewhat ... stacked against her even though there's no legal requirement that you need to live in the district. I think politically it's tough to get tagged as the carpetbagger."

But, there does still seem to be a path, Masket said.

“There's all sorts of things working against her for this, but, just being one of the biggest and best-connected names and in a sea of a dozen candidates that works to her advantage,” he said.

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She’s Running in a New District — But Are Voters Tiring of Lauren Boebert’s Drama?