For Democrats, the stakes of next month’s special election to fill a congressional seat in New York extend far beyond Long Island.

Democrats have already spent millions supporting former Rep. Tom Suozzi, who relinquished this seat to run for governor ahead of the 2022 election but lost to Gov. Kathy Hochul. Various Democratic failures in New York paved the way for Republican George Santos to win the seat, which set off a series of calamities for the fabulist congressman — including revelations that Santos made up large swaths of his resume, a criminal indictment, and, eventually, his ouster from Congress.

The major investment, however, is about more than just replacing Santos with Suozzi, according to multiple top Democratic operatives in New York and Washington, D.C. Democrats are hoping to notch a win early in 2024 to continue the party’s string of success in special elections, provide the party momentum headed into what will undoubtedly be a hard-fought 2024 cycle and, in the eyes of some operatives, take the seat off the Republican board in November with a win a few months beforehand.

A win in Long Island next month could also provide a path towards flipping a series of New York House seats that Republicans won two years earlier.

That is why, according to a range of Democratic groups, the party has already spent millions on touting Suozzi and attacking Republican nominee Mazi Melesa Pilip, and has plans to spend millions more in the coming month.

Late last month, House Majority PAC announced they planned to spend nearly $6 million in their initial ad buy for the race, a figure that could increase in the coming weeks. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's independent expenditure also has plans for $1 million in anti-Pilip expenditures.

The money is also an acknowledgment that, while Democratic President Joe Biden carried the district handily in 2020, it has shifted toward the right in recent years, most clearly exhibited by Santos’ win in 2022.

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“If we win this, it shows momentum, it shows donors that there’s a real viable chance of … flipping back some seats that have been trending red,” said a Democrat working on House races. “If we can win this back, that's a pretty great start of 2024 for us.”

The operative added: “If we can win this seat now, it is non-competitive for Republicans in November. … Let’s mark this one off the board early. … It’s just one less headache down the road if we can.”

Republicans know that they need to hold onto the Long Island seat. Democrats currently only need to win five seats to flip the House, and Republicans’ margin has already narrowed — most notably by former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy leaving Congress at the end of last year, in addition to other early retirements. A Republican loss in February will make current House Speaker Mike Johnson’s job even more difficult.

“Democrats know that their policies are hurting New Yorkers and causing voters to seek relief,” Savannah Viar, said spokeswoman for the campaign arm of the House Republican conference. “No amount of money can undo the disastrous Biden-Suozzi agenda of open borders and rising crime.”

However, Republicans have yet to invest in a major way in the district, and according to one Democratic strategist, that could be a major misstep given the short time leading up to the special election.

“I think it's smart that Democrats are … laying down what they're going to spend and spending it early because this is a very short race,” New York Democratic Strategist Matt McNally said.

But on Wednesday, the National Republican Congressional Committee came out with an attack ad against Suozzi — criticizing the Democratic candidate for his immigration and crime policies.

In addition to Suozzi’s viability as a candidate in a winnable district for Democrats, it’s no secret that the media market, situated right outside New York City, is one of the most expensive in the country. If Democrats can flip the seat now, they are also potentially getting a better deal on ads when the market is less saturated.

“These are just pricey media markets,” the Democratic strategist who spoke on background said.

And while Biden has yet to play a direct role in the race, there are implications for him in the contest, too.

Biden and his campaign have touted Democrats' ability to win special and off-year elections by running on many of the same accomplishments he notched in his first years as president. A win in February would be another data point for that argument, providing Democrats with a counter to questions about the president’s popularity and standing in swing state polls.

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Democrats Count on the Race to Replace George Santos to Set Tone for 2024