McCarthy’s decision to leave Congress altogether also launched an unexpected race for his seat

The House Republican Conference is entering into the highly competitive 2024 election cycle without one of its most vital members from the last 15 years: former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, whose resignation from Congress becomes effective on Dec. 31.

After just a handful of Republican members voted to oust McCarthy as speaker, the entire party waded into uncharted territory as they struggled to agree on a replacement. And in just a few short days, for the first time in nearly two decades, they will be without McCarthy in any official congressional role at all.

It’s yet to be seen what kind of void McCarthy’s absence will leave as Republicans try to maintain their narrow House majority. But political experts who spoke with The Messenger agreed he was an instrumental part of the GOP’s success during the past several cycles and his natural political prowess will be difficult to recreate.

“He has been the most important field general for House Republicans for the last decade and a half,” said Rob Stutzman, a Republican strategist based in California.

“As soon as he got to Congress, he immersed himself in candidate recruitment, understanding districts where there were opportunities to flip districts, and developing a fundraising network. There may be people ready to step into that void, but I’d be surprised if there’s anyone who will replicate … that political effort,” Stutzman added. “I don't know if that strategic insight and the money to act on that strategic insight will be there again.”

According to David Wasserman, senior editor and election analyst for the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, McCarthy was the “most politically tenacious speaker Republicans have ever had.”

“McCarthy was pretty purely about growing the Republican majority through any means necessary, including recruiting candidates who didn't fit the traditional Republican mold,” Wasserman said.

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Jim Brulte, former chairman of the California Republican Party told The Messenger that it’s “almost impossible” to replace someone like McCarthy, adding that national Republicans are going to “miss his ability to identify great-quality congressional candidates, and recruit those candidates, and elect those candidates.”

Republicans currently hold the majority in the lower chamber, but only by a slim margin. Going into next year’s election cycle, Republicans have emphasized that their focus is on growing the majority, as Democrats currently only need to net five seats to flip the House.

“There's no question that control of the House is very much on the table a year from now,” said Darry Sragow, a longtime California political strategist, adding that McCarthy’s departure is “viewed as a loss for the Republican Party's efforts to retain control of the House.”

Stutzman said that he expects the House to continue to come down to single-digits majorities for the next decade, “so, the margin for error is very small.”

“If Republicans lose the majority, I don't know how Matt Gaetz ever shakes that off,” Stutzman said, referring to the Florida congressman who initially moved to oust McCarthy from his speakership.

“I think there'll be a real perception — and arguably accurate — that he was responsible for it,” Stutzman said.

“Driving McCarthy out of the conference and out of the House will inhibit the Republicans ability to optimize those narrow margins,” he said, telling The Messenger that he doesn’t think this will impact incumbents in competitive districts, who will likely already be well-funded.

Instead, Stutzman said he expects it to particularly affect Republicans’ “stretch goals.”

“Winning open seats, even taking out some incumbents. I think that's where Republicans will suffer from lacking Kevin's abilities,” Stutzman said.

Kevin McCarthy — Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images

Another Republican strategist who was granted anonymity because of their role working on House races noted that although McCarthy has “large shoes to fill,” Speaker Mike Johnson, who was elected after McCarthy was forced out of the speakership, “has done a really good job so far” The strategist noted that the new Republican House leader has been diligent in introducing himself to donors, and has largely left McCarthy’s infrastructures in place.

“Once he was ousted, I think it was a safe assumption to make that he probably wouldn't spend the remainder of Congress as a rank-and-file,” the Republican strategist added about McCarthy’s departure.

McCarthy’s move to leave Congress altogether not only complicated the Republican Party’s strategy heading into next year’s election cycle, but it also launched an unexpected race for his seat.

“His district is symbolic of the dysfunction surrounding his departure in several ways,” said Wasserman. “He didn't even leave enough time for his political allies to get their ducks in a row to succeed him.”

Currently, a battle is playing out in California’s 20th congressional district over ballot access, after California’s secretary of State disqualified one of the candidates, State Assemblyman Vince Fong, from running for the Congressional seat since he had already filed to run for reelection in the California state legislature.

“State law prohibits any candidate from filing nomination papers for more than one office at the same election,” the California secretary of State’s office said in a statement.

Fong, according to Wasserman, would have “easily waltzed into the seat” had he known that McCarthy was leaving and another member of the California legislature was declining to run.

Now, the campaign has announced its intention to litigate the issue.

“Voters in the 20th Congressional District have a right to choose the candidate of their choice to represent them in Congress. I will fight the Secretary of State's misguided decision and do whatever it takes to give voters in our community a real choice in this election because the voters choose our elected officials, not Sacramento,” Fong said in a statement posted to social media.

According to Wasserman, “It's unclear whether Fox is going to make the ballot. As of now it looks unlikely that he will be able to get a spot on the ballot, even though he's suing for it.”

“Now, the seat to go to a considerably more conservative Republican than McCarthy,” Wasserman added.

Several individuals have announced their intentions to run for the seat, including Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux and small business owner David Giglio, who touts endorsements from far-right figures Roger Stone and Mike Flynn on his social media profile.

Giglio’s campaign also said it would take legal action if Fong is permitted on the ballot.

“If the California Secretary of State and Kern County Recorder are willing to disregard existing election laws due to what they are now claiming to be ‘unusual circumstances,’ we will take legal action against both parties to force them to adhere to the law,” the campaign’s attorney said in a statement.

“David Giglio is an ultra-MAGA candidate, who's very much not in the McCarthy orbit, but could now be considered a contender for this seat, and the Tulare County Sheriff Mike Bourdreaux could also be in contention,” Wasserman said. “But we’ll see who’s certified on the ballot.”

Still, despite the uncertainty surrounding both who might replace McCarthy — both in his role as a major player for the Republican Party and in his district — Sragow noted that it’s “important not to not to exaggerate” McCarthy’s departure’s impact on the Republican Party adding that “there's a lot of other players,” including ones who look like they could potentially fill some of the void left by McCarthy.

Plus, “Who knows what Kevin's got up his sleeve in terms of the next act,” Sragow said.

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McCarthy’s Departure Leaves Republicans Without Critical Leader Heading Into 2024 Election