As cities across the country grapple with how to manage the influx of asylum seekers, House Republicans are leaning in on the issue ahead of this year’s election in districts thousands of miles away from the southern border, with New York state a prime example.

It was clear Republicans hope to capitalize on the migrant crisis when several dozen traveled to the border earlier this week alongside House Speaker Mike Johnson. But the group who traveled south notably included some of congressmen who represent competitive districts in New York, specifically districts where President Joe Biden won in 2020.

Currently, Republicans hold the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, but Democrats only need to net five additional seats in November’s election to flip the lower chamber. Many Democrats see the path to success through Biden-won districts, particularly in New York, a traditionally blue state.

One Republican strategist told The Messenger that there will “absolutely” be GOP ads focused on the migrant crisis nationwide, and ads “talking about how Democrats are to blame” and “the Biden administration is to blame for letting this border crisis get out of control.”

“I think it will absolutely be a tool wielded,” the strategist said.

Despite representing swing districts, New York Republicans in these seats are continuing to push for conservative immigration policies and heavily criticizing Democrats — including Biden — for what they say is a lack of action on the issue.

“A total collapse. That's what I saw at the southern border,” New York Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro wrote on the social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter.

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Similarly, New York Rep. Nick LaLota said in a statement that his trip to the border “revealed a crisis much worse than what is described by the Biden Administration or among most media.”

“The President must reinstate the Remain in Mexico policy, the Senate must pass the Secure the Border Act, and blue cities must end their sanctuary policies. The American people need their leaders to act,” he added.

The Messenger previously reported that the Republican House Caucus has been advocating for their immigration legislation — which passed in the House last year — but some hard-liners have gone as far as saying they won’t send Ukraine aid until the bill is passed.

Although these members often reluctantly have to toe the line on issues that could potentially hurt them with centrist voters, incumbent Republicans, particularly on Long Island, could benefit from the ongoing migrant crisis in New York, said Inside Elections Analyst and Reporter Jacob Rubashkin.

“They're in the media market, they're in the news environment, so they're getting all the headlines, they're getting all the stories, but they're not actually going into the city every day,” Rubashkin said. “They kind of exist in a sweet spot where crime and immigration are especially salient.”

“Republicans have been very adept at using immigration and crime as messaging tools in races in New York,” Rubashkin told The Messenger. “The proof is in the pudding there … especially in New York City, and to a much greater extent on Long Island, this has been winning territory for Republicans. Whether it continues to be I think is more of an open question.”

Additionally, one Republican strategist told The Messenger that for New York Republicans, there has to be more of a “clear delineation” between illegal immigration and legal immigration.

“Especially in a place like New York where it is home to Ellis Island … a clear delineation between the fact that we're talking about illegal immigration, and then there's legal immigration, I think … that's the line to watch for, just to get the semantics correct,” the strategist said.

Still, national Democrats seem to realize immigration and crime could be a weak spot for some candidates after the 2022 elections.

One example where this appears to already be happening is in New York’s third congressional district, where a special election is playing out to fill former Rep. George Santos’ vacant seat. It’s one of the districts in New York that Biden carried in 2020, but Santos flipped from blue to red in 2022, so many see it as a litmus test ahead of the November election.

The super PAC dedicated to electing Democrats to the House, House Majority PAC, earlier this week released a digital advertisement on Democratic nominee, former Rep. Tom Suozzi. The ad specifically highlights Suozzi’s work on immigration and crime.

“Working with both parties to strengthen border security and solve the migrant crisis. Strengthening local police and delivering record low crime rates,” the ad says of Suozzi, indicating that Democrats are on the offense about these two issues specifically.

According to Rubashkin, Suozzi is “one of the few Democrats, I think, who has managed to separate himself from the national and even the state party, sometimes in some drastic ways.”

“So, we'll see if that is enough to get him over the finish line in this special [election], if the record that he's amassed of being a little bit more moderate on immigration and on crime is salient for voters who have otherwise really rejected Democrats over the last couple of years,” Rubashkin said.

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House Republicans Bet on Immigration in New York Swing Districts