Happy Labour Day and welcome to the newsletter that makes you think harder.

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ESSENTIALS

— KPMG raking it in, despite ban on new work

— Surprise compliments for Chris Bowen

— One Nation and Liberal paths to power in Victoria

DRIVING THE DAY

KPMG’s $38.5 MILLION TRICKLE

Imagine you lose most of a massive federal government funding stream and you’re forced to make do with just $38.5M in new additional income over 3 months. That’s life at KPMG this quarter.

Yes: Tens of millions for contracts and amendments have flowed to KPMG — from six departments — while the firm has been banned from bidding for new federal government work.

Miriam Webber used Tendertrace and AusTender to analyze the $38.5 million of contracts and amendments. The Department of Defence shoveled nearly $30 million to KPMG.

Some of the deals were executed before the Jun. 16 ban but didn’t kick in until afterwards, the rest were amendments to existing contracts. These are all allowed under the terms of the ban and Finance says it isn’t aware of anyone breaking the rules.

It shows just how much the federal government currently relies on KPMG. The government has until Oct. 31 to figure out how to deal with procurement going forward.

A similar thing happened with PwC Australia, which was banned from federal government work for more than a year.

Yes, but: It had already sold off its government advisory business — which became Scyne Advisory, and was able to quickly take up at least some of the space left by PwC.

The Department of Finance in June told agencies to stop awarding work to the firm from June 16 to Sept. 30 — later extended until Oct. 31. Finance asked former senior public servant Ian Watt to investigate KPMG’s ethical soundness, after whistleblower allegations that it used confidential client information to win work.

Read Miriam’s full article.

SAVING(S) THE DAY: Treasurer Jim Chalmers told “Insiders” on Sunday that he’s working on a savings package to be unveiled in his Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook in December.

The tease comes as voters start to think more and more about economic management, which jumped seven percentage points as an issue of concern in the AFR’s latest RedBridge Group/Accent Research poll.

The cost of living is the number one issue of concern in the poll. Economic management has still not made the top five. In the same interview, Chalmers put the emphasis on savings — skirting around a question on extra cost-of-living relief by saying people will expect a “tight ship.”

THE PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW

EU COMMISSIONER WOPKE HOEKSTRA — “CHRIS BOWEN HAS DONE AN ABSOLUTELY INCREDIBLE JOB”

Hoekstra is flying above the Pacific as you read this, en route to Fiji for a major pre-COP negotiations summit, largely funded by Australia. Hoekstra serves as the European commissioner for climate, net zero and clean growth, representing the 27 EU governments in Fiji discussions (though some will send their own ministers). He spoke to Playbook’s Ryan Heath via video call over the weekend.

This transcript has been edited for length and clarity.

Pacific nation leaders see climate action is a matter of survival. This year’s COP is very much about practical action. What is Europe committing to?

For our friends and partners from the islands, both the Pacific and the Caribbean, one meter [of sea rise] is wet feet. Two meters means I need to move uphill. Three meters is drowning.

The essence of this COP is the whole topic of electrification: practical, high impact, and relatively non-controversial. If we, as a global community, manage to double down on solar, on on wind, on battery capacity, on grid investments, on nuclear, that is really going to be a game changer.

[Climate and Energy Minister Chris] Bowen is accused of not mobilizing enough leaders. How are you feeling about the seniority in Fiji?

If my cheat sheet is correct, European ministers’ participation at the pre-COP is higher than at UNGA [in New York], and I negotiate at the core on behalf of the EU 27. We are showing how committed we are to our exceptionally close partners in Australia and the Pacific.

Chris Bowen has done an absolutely incredible job in terms of proactive outreach, shaping the conversations, building bridges. I have been active in international politics for close to a decade as a finance minister, as a foreign minister, and as a [European] commissioner. So it’s grounded in experience when I’m saying that he is really doing a very, very good job in a hugely complicated geopolitical environment.

We’re deep into the energy transition: a massive solar transition, EVs lead the car sales now. How does that progress effect the politics of pushing forward? Does it make it inevitable?

It is clearly inevitable from a climate perspective, and from the perspective of competitiveness and independence.

Europe is importing more than 80% of its gas and more than 95% of its oil. That is a phenomenally large political liability. Those in Europe who have been at the forefront of electrification can now provide their citizens with far lower energy prices because they are far less dependent on oil and gas.

This transition is accepted across the political spectrum in places like Finland and Denmark, because it is cheaper, and the business community is actually asking for more of it.

You can always have a debate that needs to be fact-based on how to make sure you do this transition in the most cost-effective way. You need to be in the mindset to never be dogmatic and to always learn.

For all the discussions around a sovereign Europe — security, artificial intelligence, etc. — the sovereignty is actually coming in more practical forms through the energy transition.

Exactly, exactly. In the Benelux [Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg] and northern countries, the penetration rate of newly sold electric vehicles is far higher than 50%.

The Finnish — and they did it because they wanted to never ever have a dependency on Russia — have doubled down on renewables and on nuclear and have the best grid network maybe in the world. They have energy abundance. They have the lowest prices across Europe.

STATE OF THE NATION

DO YOU KNOW SOMEONE SUFFERING ALBO DERANGEMENT REFLEX? That’s the label Nick Dyrenfurth, John Curtin Research Centre executive director, gives to “the Australian cousin of that much-abused American expression, Trump Derangement Syndrome, or TDS. Its defining symptom is not disagreement with Albanese, but rather the inability to interpret anything he does except through a preexisting conviction that he is uniquely contemptible.”

Read the very non-medical explanation of this condition.

THE RESILIENCE MAP BEHIND ONE NATION’S RISE

Australia’s capacity to absorb a shock is uneven, and that makes it harder for politicians to manage voter frustrations, according to a new effort to map Australian financial, social and health resilience (as distinct from security and emergency-based resilience).

“A single disadvantage score would put Cessnock and Cabramatta in the same bucket. The index does not and that is a critical distinction,” said RedBridge’s Kos Samaras.

Australia’s first neighborhood-level resilience index, based on research, by Zurich, Mandala and RedBridge and Accent Research, found that:

— Regional communities are most exposed on health.

— Many outer and middle suburban communities are more exposed on finances and social connection.

— Adelaide’s north and parts of outer Brisbane face pressure across all three pillars.

STARK PATTERNS

— Nearly 4 million Australians aged 15 to 69 live in communities rated as having low or very low resilience, with roughly the same number having high or very high resilience.

— The national average conceals exceptional gaps: Community scores range from 12.3 in East Arnhem to 78.9 in Cottesloe. The ACT average is highest, at 52.0, more than 8 points above the national average of 43.5. The report says no ACT community is rated low or very low.

— Regional health is the sharpest national divide: Roughly 2 in 3 regional Australians lack health resilience, compared to 1 in 10 in major cities.

— The politics of belonging: 46% of people feel like a stranger in their own country. The measure peaks at 61% in Lingiari, home to large indigenous communities.

— Housing stress cuts across the resilience map: 1 in 3 Australians is in housing stress, no matter how rich your neighborhood. High resilience communities cope with it better, naturally.

— Some places face strain across the board. Spence, in Adelaide’s outer northern suburbs, is the report’s lowest-scoring electorate, and its hub Elizabeth, 27% are reported to lack access to emergency funds, 38% of adults smoke and 18% report a mental health condition.

— Gender gap concentrated in midlife. Women score 41.3 nationally, compared with 45.7 for men. Women aged 35 to 49 are the lowest-scoring group at 40.3; 1 in 3 is in a low or very low resilience community, compared with 1 in 8 men of the same age.

— Tasmania devil in the details: Tasmania has the weakest health resilience score, while its social resilience is the strongest of any state.

POLITICO TAKEAWAYS FOR UPCOMING ELECTIONS

— One Nation’s path to power is now wider: One Nation has multiple political openings — it’s no longer confined to playing a race card or reaching out to those feeling left behind by globalization.

— Singular cost-of-living messages will probably fail: Parties will need to show they understand the specific local pressure voters are reacting to.

— Who is most exposed to an anti-incumbent swing? In cities, its MPs in outer Brisbane, including Blair, Longman and Forde, and Adelaide’s north. In regional Australia, it’s every MP.

VICTORIAN ELECTION — ONE NATION SET FOR BALANCE OF POWER

As One Nation vowed to jail former Premiers Jacinta Allan and Dan Andrews and federal opposition frontbencher Tim Wilson branded Labor “an organised crime cartel.” ABC’s chief elections and data analyst Casey Briggs maps out the Liberals’ path to power.

Jess Wilson will find it nearly impossible to become premier without One Nation support, including because nine Nationals seats are at risk of One Nation takeover. But the prospect of handing victory to Labor seems unappealing to three-quarters of voters (they’ve been in power 33 of the past 44 years).

Reality checks:

— Hanson can’t jail anyone by Christmas, including because of, er, rule of law.

— Liberal Party hasn’t won a Melbourne seat north or west of the Yarra this century.

QUEENSLAND DATA CENTER HYPOCRISY ALERT: The QLD government, which insisted on flexibility for itself at National Cabinet on how to power data centers, is refusing to give local councils any flexibility on approving proposed facilities. The Queensland government will take the planning and assessment of data center applications away from local councils under a new system, ABC reported.

ABOUT THAT CREDIT CARD SURCHARGE BAN: It’s become a wildly mishandled policy change — a supposed win for consumers that has mostly left small businesses furious and many consumers paying more for their coffee. (Was Playbook the only one facing weird prices on the weekend? Ryan’s iced flat white was suddenly $6.51, a transaction fee added to the bill.)

Playbook asked the ACCC for its views on the policy change, to be directed back to its August 2025 submission to the RBA.

The TL;DR: ACCC broadly supported the RBA’s package, including because the old system left debit card users subsidizing the higher costs and loyalty rewards programs of high-end credit cards.

Crucially, the ACCC wanted the government to legislate a surcharge ban with a transition period included — and neither happened.

CANBERRA MEETS WORLD

THE OTHER SHOE DROPS — GREENS OPPOSE WEAPONS FOR UKRAINE: New Greens leader David Shoebridge told SMH’s Matthew Knott that Australia shouldn’t provide military support for Ukraine, and called for the United States to be evicted from prized Australian defense facilities, including the Pine Gap surveillance base.

FLYDUBAI PILOT SPENT TWO YEARS IN AUSTRALIA: Australian security agencies have launched an investigation into the circumstances of a Flydubai co-pilot who allegedly tried to hijack an Israel-bound flight, after spending about two years here as an engineering student.

NZ ELECTION — ONE MONTH OUT: Of 600,000 New Zealanders living in Australia — now including former PM Jacinda Ardern — less than 100,000 are registered to vote in the country’s Nov. 7 election.

Why it matters: New Zealand has only one house of parliament, with 50% of members elected by proportional representation. Analysts expect overseas voters to lean toward minor parties at greater rates than those living in NZ, making them critical to the overall seats those minor parties could gain. That now included a Teal-like party known as TOP (The Opportunity Party). Registration details available at Elections NZ.

What’s happening? Elections NZ is running an ASMR enrollment ad. The enrollment deadline is Oct. 25.

SOLOMONS PATRONAGE FUNDING: As part of a nearly $1 billion package from Australian to the Solomon Islands, about 10% of that money — $93 million would go the “development priorities” of each individual MP, handed out between now and the end of the 2028. That’s over $1.8 million per electorate (which range from just over 3,000 voters to 16,000). Mary-Louise O’Callaghan analyzes the risks around that funding.

No word yet on whether it will be a closed grants program or a competitive process.

PARTY ROOM

THE GREENS — MAX EXPOSURE

Former federal MP Max Chandler-Mather has been circulating an open letter calling for the federal Greens to ensure the next vote for leader is cast by the members of the party. He made the call ahead of the Greens party-room vote that saw David Shoebridge elected as leader.

“We say we want to build a movement. That we want to take on billionaires and big corporations,” his letter dated Sept. 29 reads. “But if we’re serious about that it means putting real power and trust in the hands of ordinary people - and trusting they will make the right choice.”

He’s gaining some traction — state members including WA’s Sophie McNeill, Kobi Shetty in NSW and Aiv Puglielli from Victoria — have added their names to a copy seen by Playbook.

LIBERAL — LOUISE CLEGG UNFILTERED: The Spectator columnist and political spouse opened up over an hour with Peter Lewis and Damian Damjanovski in their “What’s Your Poison” podcast.

Clegg covers a lot of ground, from her “Joh for PM” father to her husband Angus Taylor and her professional love for “awesome” High Court Chief Justice Stephen Gageler, a Labor appointee. She also covers why she sees ICAC is a kangaroo court, her views on the U.K. is a legal “basket case,” and why she’s still open to an Indigenous constitutional amendment.

On Taylor: “He’s very nerdy. … He’s not dancing on the table. … He would do better if he was more narcissistic.”

WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING

WILL GERMANY AND SPAIN GO TO EARLY ELECTIONS? The prospect of an early general election in Spain is growing — Pedro Sánchez’s minority government suffered a double parliamentary defeat over the weekend.

POLITICO’s Madrid Playbook launches next week — sign up free.

HOW A FAILED ATTACK IN GERMANY REVEALED RUSSIA’S CAMPAIGN HAND: On Aug. 4, a drone struck the wing of a Ukrainian aircraft at Germany’s Leipzig Airport and fell onto the tarmac. Strapped beneath it was a tin can packed with explosives. The device remained intact.

That gave investigators something unusually valuable: the bomb itself. The can was sealed with a metal plate stamped with seven circular indentations, according to an investigative file from German federal police reviewed by the Axel Springer Global Reporters Network.

LATVIA’S PRO-UKRAINE PM WINS ELECTION: Andris Kulbergs’ United List won the country’s parliamentary election by a wide margin, putting the pro-Ukraine leader in a strong position to remain in power.

WIDDECOMBE MURDER SUSPECT CHARGED WITH TERRORISM, ATTACK PLANNED AGAINST FARAGE: Shabana Mahmood, the U.K. home secretary, said on X that the charges were “extremely concerning” and that “an attack on anyone in politics is an attack on us all. This case raises serious questions about the security of those in public life.”

BY THE NUMBERS

1817: The number of delegates at Chris Bowen’s Pre-COP negotiations meeting in Nadi, Fiji, this week.

Playbook Feedback

The “Committee for a Strong and Corruption Free CFMEU NSW Branch” — a group of union members and supporters who don’t like the criminal direction that union has sometimes taken — has its own views on Michael Crosby, the union’s federal government-appointed administrator, and thought Playbook was too positive about Crosby’s work in Friday’s Playbook (while acknowledging its value).

The group thinks that Crosby should allow the CFMEU to move to elections soon and rejects suggestions that the union must have 20,000 members before credible elections are possible. “Why is Crosby pushing so hard against the democratic control he told everyone he supported when he came on the scene 15 months ago?” the committee asked in an internal note seen by Playbook.

REQUIRED READING

Inside the raid that sparked a workers’ uprising at Nine’s jewel — Will Glasgow’s behind the scenes look at the week that rocked the Fin Review.

AGENDA ASSISTANT

Anika Wells is heading along to the Brisbane event that was intended to unveil the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic emblems (before the Games’ own YouTube channel leaked them). Event starts at 12 p.m.

LOCAL CANBERRA

LOOKING FOR A NEW GIG?: ACT Chief Engineer and Infrastructure Canberra boss Gillian Geraghty has resigned, marking the second senior departure at the territory level in a matter of days, Peter Jean reports.

Top ACT public servant Kathy Leigh announced plans to retire last week, too. It comes as redundancies hit territory directorates as part of a cost-cutting drive.

MONSTER-A PLANT EVENT: A three-day plant sale kicks off at Capital Brewing in Fyshwick from Friday evening. Capital has teamed up with The Jungle Collective for the plantfest.

WET, WET, WET: Saturday was the wettest October day since 1976 in Canberra, Bureau of Meteorology senior meteorologist Johnathan How told The Canberra Times.

COMMUNITY CORNER

SPOTTED: Albo, Chris Minns, David Crisafulli, Greg Norman, David Brat in the NRL grand final VIP suite. h/t John Buckley.

MOVES AND APPOINTMENTS

Simon Draper starts his five-year term as secretary of the Department of Industry, Science and Resources this week.

Chris Gambian is the new campaign director for Murray-Darling Conservation Alliance.

ACCI is looking for a Memberships and Events Coordinator to join its Canberra team.

IN MEMORIAM: Hilary McPhee and Bruce Baird.

BIRTHDAYS

Anne Stanley MP (ALP); former Sinn Féin President Gerry Adams; DFAT’s James Buttigieg.

Belated wishes for The Australian’s Canberra bureau chief Richard Ferguson, who celebrated Friday.

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$38M from federal government to KPMG during ban