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ESSENTIALS

— Fines, and possibly worse, for $2.3 billion immigration detention contractor

— Tech bubble and mortgage stress in RBA stability review

— Shoe-in for Greens leadership

— Why your parliament pass may glitch

DRIVING THE DAY

HOME AFFAIRS LOOKS TO ICE $2.3B DETENTION CONTRACT

SCOOP: The Australian government has begun docking the pay of an ICE-linked private prison operator, recouping millions of dollars for its poor performance of a $2.3 billion Australian contract to run the country’s onshore immigration detention centers.

The Home Affairs Department is seeking advice from the Australian Government Solicitor on how to tear up Secure Journeys’ five-year contract before its December 2029 expiry. The department is also seeking options to strip the operator of some of its duties, according to two Home Affairs and AGS sources granted anonymity to discuss confidential internal matters.

Good old days of Serco: POLITICO Australia can reveal that after Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke hauled the president of Secure Journey’s parent company to a face-to-face meeting in September 2025 to express concern about poor performance, the department began issuing fines as soon as the contract allowed. This included a fine of between $5 million and $10 million in the first month, according to the Home Affairs Department source.

Since Secure Journeys began managing onshore detention in March 2025, there have been a string of incidents including fires, 12 escapes, a death at the Melbourne Immigration Detention Centre on July 10, 2026, and an alleged murder at Villawood in January 2026. Staff are now thinking the unthinkable — yearning for the good ol’ days of former operator, Serco.

Uplift in deportations ‘absolute bullshit’: The Home Affairs Department source warns that tearing up the Secure Journeys contract “would be chaos and expose the Commonwealth to huge health, safety and financial risks. The minister is talking about more community pick-ups of illegals and faster removals — you can’t do either in the short term if you’re bringing Serco back.”

“They’re not going to be able to stand that up [Melbourne quarantine] before July next year. Where will they go? Hotels. If Secure Journeys can’t even do its existing job, how can they accommodate an extra 250 in hotels … All this proposed uplift in removals is absolute bullshit.”

Detention center staff are on strike Thursday and Friday in support of United Workers Union claims for more pay and better staffing levels.

Read Paul Karp’s full story here.

TECH BUBBLE, MORTGAGE STRESS IN RBA REVIEW

Rate rises ahoy: If you had doubts that rates could keep rising — Wednesday’s inflation figures should quell them. When inflation has jumped back to 4%, and has never been within the RBA’s target range in the life of this government, something’s gotta give.

Given that the government will not be announcing massive spending cuts in an emergency federal budget, more rate rises are the thing that’s going to give.

Tech pullback: On Thursday the Reserve Bank is releasing its twice-yearly financial stability review. RBA Governor Michele Bullock said Tuesday it would discuss that “asset prices in some areas, equity markets particularly in technology areas, are quite elevated.”

“It will talk a little bit about the vulnerabilities of having some of these asset prices really high and the risks that might be associated with a pullback in the bond market if it happens quite in a disorderly fashion, what that might mean.”

Not so stressed: The review may also put in perspective the extent to which not all households are feeling mortgage stress. Bullock noted debt to disposable income “rose very sharply around till the mid-2000s, and then it sort of leveled off.” Many people with a mortgage have money stashed away in an offset. So debt to income ratios are not too bad, she suggested.

THE PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW

DEPUTY OMBO JULIE O’BRIEN — ON ‘INSTABILITY’ IN DETENTION

After a scathing report in March 2026 about the transition in management of immigration detention centers from Serco to Secure Journeys, Paul Karp spoke by phone to the Deputy Commonwealth Ombudsman Julie O’Brien.

Mandatory detention has been Australia’s policy for decades, have conditions worsened recently?

Yes. We monitored closely the transition of service provider that happened last year from Serco to Secure Journeys. What we observed is that the transition was managed poorly and it impacted the overall safety and security of the immigration detention network and the day-to-day lives of people in detention. Last year was a time of real uncertainty, instability and disjointed service provision. There was a series of very serious incidents around that time.

How was it managed poorly?

Across almost every site we visited, staffing was identified as a key area of concern: insufficient staffing levels, issues with recruitment and rostering which led to the disruption of service provision, so [fewer] programs and activities and less access to health care. We also heard concerns about a lack of communication around roles and responsibilities in the transition, inadequate training for staff and … critically low staffing levels compared to pre-transition levels.

Have concerns been addressed?

There are ongoing concerns. This year we visited Villawood and we continued to hear concerns around staffing. We made a recommendation in our March report for the department to work with Secure Journeys to increase staffing levels to more effectively manage the current security situation … The department did agree, in part, [that] there was a need to ensure workforce arrangements and staff capability are effective but they didn’t agree it should be through a [minimum] prescribed increase in staffing levels.

We hold really serious concerns about the safety and security of the Villawood facility … We’ve observed deterioration and damage to the building … And we’ve also observed the seemingly free movement of illicit substances, with people in detention reporting substance abuse is commonplace.

What is the solution here?

One solution is to not hold people in detention for such prolonged periods of time. Where people are in detention there needs to be a contractor providing minimum standards of care including health care. And it needs to be an environment that is safe, secure and fit for purpose.

PARTY ROOM

SHOE-IN AS FARUQI TEES OFF

Sen. David Shoebridge is the new Greens leader, declaring he’s here to “replace” Labor. He defeated colleagues Mehreen Faruqi and Sarah Hanson-Young in the race to replace Larissa Waters.

Sen. Steph Hodgins-May is the new deputy. Read our full recap.

ONE (NATION) TRACK MIND: Shoebridge quickly acknowledged One Nation’s supporters have “quite legitimate anger” but said the party’s only offering a “short-term sugar hit.” He now needs to work out how to woo ex-Labor voters in Pauline Hanson’s thrall.

Can the Greens halt Hanson’s momentum? No one else has been able to, so the chances are slim. Then again, no one else has been offered a full-frontal assault. Shoebridge now has that opportunity.

The Greens risk very little by going harder against One Nation. Labor and Liberal parliamentarians worry about shedding voters and elevating Hanson by attacking her too often. The Greens don’t have to make that triage calculation.

Fear and loathing: There’s long been bad blood between Shoebridge and Faruqi, with Greens sources fearing before the ballot that she’d hit out after defeat. Bingo! The firebrand senator immediately reiterated her calls for Greens members to elect their leader — which would have helped her out.

Fear or disdain: Whichever it is, Labor’s never been a fan of Shoebridge. But Treasurer Jim Chalmers now wants to work with him to defeat the common enemy: One Nation.

Always the bridesmaid: Vanessa Bleyer, who’s only been in parliament for six weeks, came second in the race for deputy leader and deputy whip (which went to Penny Allman-Payne).

Read Shoebridge’s interview with Playbook’s Finn McHugh from two weeks ago.

GOVERNMENT CENSORSHIP! The prime minister’s office seems to have airbrushed a testy exchange with a journalist, whose long-winded question irked him at yesterday’s press conference. “There’s a question in there somewhere,” the prime minister said, in comments that didn’t make the official transcript.

Nor did the end of the journalist’s question, which noted government spending had reached “the highest level in 40 years outside of the pandemic.”

The transcript was issued with the standard caveat E&OE — errors and omissions excepted. Receiver beware, do your own research.

BY THE NUMBERS

64%: The share of Australians who believe we are becoming more disconnected from each other, per new research from Essential as Mental Health Month begins today.

4%: The August inflation rate.

3.6%: Rent increases in the year to August.

5.7%: Total housing costs are up even more than rent, due to electricity and the cost of new dwellings.

102,000: First home buyers who have used the government’s 5% deposit scheme.

1: The number of “l” in the first name of Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock (mea culpa), and also her predecessor Philip Lowe. Maybe William Nordhaus will come out of retirement (he ran the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) for one last gig Down Under.

STATE OF THE NATION

KAISER FINDS HIS VOICE: The secretary of the Climate Change Department says public servants “should be more vocal in the public arena” on policy and misinformation.

“There’s a red line that you can’t cross as a public servant but it’s pretty bloody obvious where it is, it’s hard to cross it,” said Mike Kaiser, who once served a brief stint in Queensland politics.

The secretary spoke at an Institute of Public Administration Australia ACT event Wednesday, where he detailed plans for the department to play a more active role in tackling misinformation.

Read Miriam Webber’s report.

ELSEWHERE IN THE PUBLIC SERVICE: The IPAA NSW branch has dropped a white paper looking at how state bureaucrats can prepare for the future.

Also on their mind: Effective communication.

“Policies, decisions and outcomes must be explained in ways that are accessible and transparent,” the report reads.

“This includes communicating not only what decisions are made, but why they are made and the trade-oﬀs involved.”

ENERGY BILLS POSTCODE LOTTERY: A new Energy Efficiency Council scoreboard compares how states and territories are helping households cut their energy bills. Read its full report here.

Why it matters: Around 70% of Australia’s 11 million homes were built before minimum energy efficiency standards were introduced. Improving a home from 3 to 5 stars could cut heating and cooling energy needs by around 40%.

ACT-ing fast: The capital territory leads the pack, after requiring all new builds to be electrified and incentivizing efficient energy. It helps that there are a lot of new homes in the territory!

Fossil fuel fiefdoms: The NT and Queensland rank at the bottom, based on what the report calls “major gaps” in electrification and energy efficiency.

TEMPORARY DISASTER ROAMING: Switches on today. Telstra, Optus and TPG will automatically connect users to other networks when their own is disrupted by a natural disaster.

It’s a win for regional independent Helen Haines, but she warned Playbook: “The bushfire season will be an important test of how quickly this system can be activated.”

EMBASSY ROW

BRAT IN ACTION: In his first official act, Ambassador David Brat paid tribute to Australian service members by laying a wreath at the Australian War Memorial, reflecting “Australia has been our closest ally and friend for generations. It’s an honor to visit such an awe-inspiring tribute.”

NEXT UP: Appointments by U.K. and Canada.

LOCAL CANBERRA

NIGHTFEST RETURNS: Tim Finn will headline the first night of Floriade’s after-dark events, which run tonight through to Sunday. NightFest includes live music, events and illuminations at Commonwealth Park.

AGENDA ASSISTANT

Parliament’s Joint Standing Committee on Treaties will hold hearings on the Fiji-Australia Vuvale Union and the Ocean of Peace Alliance.

Cheek Media’s Hannah Ferguson will be live at the Canberra Theatre Centre tonight.

(Not) on the agenda: Greens Sen. Sarah Hanson-Young’s inquiry into AI and data centers.

Hanson-Young had been demanding the CEOs of OpenAI and Anthropic attend a Thursday hearing of the committee she chairs. The companies are instead planning to send representatives to front a separate committee, while the Greens-led inquiry isn’t planning another hearing until November.

COMMUNITY CORNER

PASS IT ON

A warning from our friends at APH security — pass holders at Parliament House should expect occasional glitches when swiping into carparks and security access points due to some upgrades going on in the back end this week.

So give that person blocking up the Senate carpark entrance some grace. It could happen to any of us!

Speaking of: One month left to apply for the new lobbyist passes. Write in with any updates on that.

PARLIAMENT SQUASH COMP GRAND FINAL TIME: After more than a month of group stage and knockout matches, the advanced group grand final will feature Brock Taylor (Environment minister Murray Watt’s spokesperson) vs. DPS’ Muhammed Amer today at 1 p.m.

The intermediate final is between DPS’ Adrian Salgado and Playbook’s Ryan Heath.

The beginner group features a DPS rumble: Lucy Tedder faces off against Justin Cross, Friday 2 p.m.

BOGONG MOTHS BOUNCE BACK

The capital’s favorite moths are returning after nearing complete population wipe-out. Drought saw their numbers drop by more than 99% around 2019, sending them straight to the “endangered” list.

But this year they’re back. Scientists and fans of the fuzzy creatures have been delighted by what appears to be a population resurgence. Thousands of sightings are being reported across Australia’s southeast on citizen science project Bogong Watch, as the moths make their seasonal migration to cooler alpine regions for their annual estivation (like hibernation, but in summer not winter).

CANBERRA CONNECTION: The name “Canberra” originates from Indigenous words meaning “meeting place,” and it was bogong moths that brought different Aboriginal nations to the Canberra region each year to feast on the high-protein, roasted delicacies.

In years past, when Bogong populations were much higher, moths would routinely invade Parliament House during migration season. Residents of the press gallery report needing to sweep dozens off their desks each morning.

BIRTHDAYS

Liberal frontbencher Tony Pasin, Mamamia co-founder Mia Freedman, former U.K. prime minister Theresa May, Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley.

Belated birthday wishes to POLITICO alum and AAP reporter Catherine Bouris, for Wednesday.

MOVES AND APPOINTMENTS

Nicole Seils has joined ASPI as a senior fellow, from Amazon Web Services ANZ.

RETIRING: ABC finance journalist Alan Kohler to retire after three decades at the network.

HIRING: Applications for expeditioner roles with the Australian Antarctic Division open today and close on Nov. 1.

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Australia’s $2.3B immigration detention deal on thin ice