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ESSENTIALS
— RBA to front estimates amid cup day rate rise fear
— New figures on Labor’s $2.6M campaign to oust Greens MPs
— Exit polls from Israel’s election will be announced at 7 a.m.
— ABC legal action over alleged Bluey copyright infringement in One Nation’s Please Explain cartoons
DRIVING THE DAY
BULLOCK TO FACE CUP DAY RATE RISE QUESTIONS
The Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled to attend Senate estimates at 11:15 a.m., when we expect governor Michele Bullock to be asked about whether there is any prospect of avoiding a Melbourne Cup day rate rise.
RBA assistant governor Sarah Hunter was asked on “60 Minutes” on Sunday if we haven’t done enough to fight inflation. Hunter replied: “It’s tricky. It is hard. Unfortunately, not quite yet. Obviously, the Board have put through four rate hikes this year to keep on tackling the challenge. So not quite yet, but we, I do think … higher rates will work.”
Can Bullock walk it back? Or is it all really as cut and dried as that made it sound? Health Services Union national secretary Dustin Halse told The Australian further rises would be “aggressive economic sadism.” That shows the strength of feeling the other way.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release inflation data at 11:30 a.m. Last month’s data showed the consumer price index rose 4% in the 12 months to July 2026. Trimmed inflation was steady at 3.6%.
EVERYDAY PEOPLE VS. THE 1% — SHOEBRIDGE MAKES ECONOMIC PITCH
David Shoebridge delivers his most significant address since taking the Greens leadership last month when he takes the National Press Club stage at 12:30 p.m. His pitch? Raising the income tax free threshold from 18,200 to 26,000 Australian dollars, handing workers an extra $1,000 — along with a $1,000 boost for Australians on income support, like pensioners and students, to spread the love around.
“We’re not leaving anyone behind,” Shoebridge will say. “No matter who you are, whether you’re working, studying, looking for work or on a pension, you’ll get more than $1000.”
Shoebridge wants to fund the $22 billion-per-year plan by going after the “rivers of gold” in the resources sector, including a gas export tax and a market-linked resource rent tax.
Us vs. the 1%: “It’s not everyday people, it’s not the mortgage holders and renters, who have cut their spending to the bone and are getting smashed by the RBA, who are driving inflation. They’ve already cut spending. Increasingly it’s corporate profits in the hands of the 1%,” Shoebridge will say.
Finn McHugh’s story on the Greens tax proposal is here.
EVERYONE AGREES: Australia’s tax system is overly dependent on income tax, rather than consumption and asset taxes.
No one agrees: On how to fix it.
Indexation nation: The Coalition and One Nation both want the tax brackets to be indexed to inflation. That’s costly, but would put an end bracket creep (people entering a higher tax bracket when their wages rise with inflation, meaning they lose a chunk of money).
Governments love bracket creep because it boosts revenue without forcing them to impose unpopular taxes.
Where’s Labor’s income tax plan? Treasurer Jim Chalmers has taken asset taxation head on with his overhaul of negative gearing and capital gains tax. But we’ve yet to see his full plan for income tax relief.
LABOR’S $1.3M CAMPAIGN TO GET MAX
Shoebridge is rattling Labor’s cage, saying he wants the Greens to replace, not reform, the major party. But he might want to take a look at what happened to fellow Green Max Chandler-Mather, Anthony Albanese’s bête noir in the last parliament.
Playbook can reveal that Labor spent 1.3 million Australian dollars to unseat Chandler-Mather in his seat of Griffith, and a further $1.3 million defeating Greens MP Stephen Bates in Brisbane. They’re eyebrow-raising figures, and more than the $800,000 cap that will apply from the next election.
The new statistics on Labor’s campaign spending are contained in the Commonwealth’s defense to two former independent parliamentarians’ legal challenge against spending and donation caps, obtained from the High Court by POLITICO Australia.
Perhaps Labor should have shelled out a bit more in neighbouring Ryan, with just $92,459 spent to unseat Elizabeth Watson-Brown. Watson-Brown retained the seat against the Liberal-National Party, but very nearly fell into third place behind Labor.
Labor’s campaign to pick up Melbourne, taking out Greens leader Adam Bandt, was cheap as chips: just $115,821 in campaign spending. Defending Peter Khalil’s seat against the Greens in the lentil belt of Melbourne’s inner north cost $1.2 million.
Paul Karp’s report on the successful ‘Get Max’ campaign, and what independents spent in their seats is here.
THE PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW
ANNE RUSTON – ESTIMATES DEADLOCK AND AGED CARE ALGORITHMS
Shadow health minister, Anne Ruston, will be fronting Senate Estimates today. She says getting information out of public servants is getting harder. Speaking with Amanda Copp on the Canberra Playbook Podcast about aged care, Ruston says the government needs to scrap its Home Care algorithm entirely.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
It’s Senate Estimates week, is it getting harder to get information out of government departments and agencies?
I think ministers jump in and stop the bureaucrats from asking questions way more than they used to. That becomes incredibly frustrating if you’ve got a minister that constantly keeps giving you the political answer instead of the factual answer.
But I think we’re getting less information. Previously there was an unwritten rule that you tried to answer the question. Estimates should be about information gathering. It should be about transparency, and I do believe that there should be a requirement that they answer the question where they can.
Do you think the Coalition could be better at asking questions?
Of course we can always do better, and I would be the first one to admit that sometimes I get down a rabbit burrow and just keep asking questions, thinking, “No, get back to the real issue here.” But I think we used to see a lot more interchange where you’d ask a question, you’d get your information. The information that came back would enable you to flow into the next question. Whereas now you just keep bumping up against the same resistance the whole time, and it can be quite frustrating
This week, the Commonwealth Ombudsman has criticised the government’s aged care algorithm that currently determines how much Home Care support older people get. You’ve called for the algorithm to be scrapped entirely. What would you replace it with?
Put back the old system of human assessment in place. The Coalition doesn’t have a problem with using technology to assist in the process, but ultimately, the final decision needs to be with a human. So, if the algorithm is working well and providing a tool as part of the assessment, that’s fine. But right now, it’s clearly causing harm.
Won’t that risk making the assessment system less efficient?
An algorithm can make sure you’ve got a quick and streamlined process, clearly that’s good because it gets people their assessments more quickly. But if the process is fundamentally flawed and the assessments they’re getting are fundamentally wrong, that’s really bad. If you’re not getting a level of care because a computer’s telling you you can’t have it, then we’ve got a problem.
Do you think that we could have another Robodebt on our hands?
The ombudsman has made very scathing comments about the fact that the government seems to have failed to have learnt the lesson of Robodebt. It’s a pretty sad indictment on a government who was incredibly scathing of that process, and justifiably so, as it’s turned out from the Royal Commission, that they would knowingly and repeatedly go making a very similar mistake with this algorithm.
BY THE NUMBERS
180% — Increase in complaints to tax ombudsman over the past two years - The Mandarin reports
CANBERRA VS.
PM&C DUMPS KPMG AS AUDITOR — SERIOUS QUALITY CONCERNS
Deputy secretary Cameron Gifford told a Senate estimates hearing that KPMG had been dropped as the department’s internal auditor, while McGrathNicol was retained.
Gifford said separate allegations of unethical conduct were “certainly relevant to our considerations” to drop the firm, The Australian reported.
STATE OF THE NATION
PARLIAMENT NOT ALWAYS A ‘SAFE WORKPLACE’ FOR PUBLIC SERVANTS: GALLAGHER
Public Service Minister Katy Gallagher defended senior public servants in estimates Tuesday, as Shoebridge questioned a controversial Secretaries Board submission from September..
“I have seen public servants treated appallingly in these hearings by senators, I have seen public servants scared to attend hearings because of the way they’ve been treated, I have seen public servants essentially called liars,” Sen. Gallagher said.
“It’s not necessarily about secretaries, it’s about the people that they employ, and it’s about a safe workplace. And I don’t think this place offers a safe workplace at all times.”
PARTY ROOM
ALBANESE PROMISES MP SECURITY UPGRADES
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has promised the Labor caucus that the government will put together an urgent package of measures to address MPs’ security in the wake of the attack on independent MP Helen Haines.
Albanese cited threats online and damage to MPs’ electorate offices, recognizing a “growing concern” about the safety of MPs, staff and their family, which he said was “grounded in reality.”
“This is particularly acute for women members, who often receive vile and misogynistic threats to their safety and increased hatred online, often of a vile and sexual nature. Women have to be able to do this job and do it safely …. We need to do more to combat these threats.”
“We recognize more investment needs to be made in safety and security for parliamentarians and their staff …. More can and should be done. I understand you want to feel safe in your community, and have better security at your office and your home.”
Here is the full story about the promised “swift” and “expedited” response.
“PIPELINE OF HATE”: AFP Commissioner Krissy Barrett told estimates last night that her agency received 785 protective security reports containing “adverse content” about federal MPs in the first half of the year. Those that don’t reach a criminal threshold are used to inform how police assess an MP’s safety.
Exactly half of threats were directed at male politicians, with 47% directed at female politicians (the rest were generic.) Women from culturally and linguistically diverse communities were more likely to receive frequent threats.
“The threats are instant and they’re voluminous, and they instantly shock and cause legitimate fear,” Barrett said.
I don’t spy the spies: ASIO avoided estimates after the program ran well overtime.
TAYLOR’S TAKE
Over in the Coalition joint party room, Opposition Leader Angus Taylor reiterated his view that robust debate shouldn’t be linked to an uptick in threats and violence towards politicians.
Taylor told the joint party room that Australia has avoided political violence “by having a robust parliamentary system.”
“The foundation of the Westminster system was to stop violence and wars. We will continue to hold this government to account.”
ONE NATION VS. ABC: The ABC will take legal action against One Nation for improper use of the Bluey character in its Please Explain cartoon series, which was used to run over Pauline Hanson’s political opponents. ABC Managing Director Hugh Marks told Senate Estimates: “It’s a breach of intellectual property” and “ a “shocking use of Australia’s most loved character.”
The options are a cease-and-desist letter, through to a request for damages.
TRUST US ON CHARITIES — COMMUNITY SECTOR TELLS GREENS
The Community Council for Australia, Philanthropy Australia and Justice Connect have written to Shoebridge, urging him to treat Labor’s discretionary trusts legislation as an opportunity to fix a “broken” deductible gift recipient system.
In a letter sent on Oct. 14, the community organisations called attention to an inequity created by Labor’s proposed exemptions from minimum tax on discretionary trusts.
“The practical implication will be that an individual owning a business through a discretionary trust will be able to use the trust to donate tax free to [deductible gift recipients], registered charities without DGR status, and other income tax-exempt not-for-profit organisations.
“Meanwhile, their employees will only be able to make tax deductible donations to DGRs.”
STEELE-JOHN COMPLAINANT HITS BACK: The woman accused by Greens Sen. Jordon Steele-John of sending hundreds of messages is dismayed by him going public with details about their relationship, James Massola and Hamish Hastie report for the SMH.
QUESTION TIME
Question time is still (a little) kinder and gentler than normal, but one gets the feeling it won’t last. The Coalition spent at least three questions asking why Albanese couldn’t admit he was wrong to have told parliament that federal funds given to the Inner West Council for the Marrickville golf course were for sewerage works.
Albanese explained that after federal Labor announced the election commitment but before finalizing the details of the grant in government, the NSW government had allocated money for the sewerage works. Eventually he accepted that the characterization of the federal money being for sewerage was therefore not correct.
PERFORMER OF THE DAY: Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke forcefully slapped down concerns raised by Angus Taylor (and The Australian newspaper) about criminal non-citizens being given their visa back by the Administrative Review Tribunal. Burke noted the reason they’d appealed is because of their visa being canceled in the first place. When the ART overturns that call, the minister then re-cancels the visa. Peter Khalil’s interjection “it was cancelled” earned his ejection by the speaker.
BOT OF THE DAY: Kristy McBain … so many stats, so many successes on emergency preparedness. So why can’t Playbook remember any of it?
GLOBAL HAPPENINGS
US — ANTHROPIC FILES FOR IPO AND WARNS OF POLITICAL BACKLASH: In a 300-page prospectus, the Silicon Valley company said its public positions could shape public narratives and regulators’ perceptions of its business in unfavorable ways. Anthropic warned it could face investigations, selective application of rules and adverse treatment in government procurement or visa decisions affecting its employees.
WHILE YOU WERE SLEEPING
US — TRUMP FAILED TO STOP INFLATION, AND IT’S HURTING HIM IN MIDTERMS:
The yard signs were brilliant in 2024: “Trump = Lower Prices. Kamala = Higher Prices.”
But, as so often happens with this American president, by making himself the center of the story, Trump is now stuck with a serious problem: persistent inflation he not only failed to stop, but actively fueled by declaring war against Iran.
This year fuel prices are up 30%, inflation is outpacing pay rises and, yes, the eggs are still expensive. Voters are increasingly blaming Trump, and that’s been a key driver putting the Senate in play for Democrats, who are also favored for a 20-seat majority in the House.
In the end, Republican defections and apathy will drive the result: Compared to a typical Republican loyalty rate in the high 80s for Trump, across eight national survey waves released between Oct. 6 and Oct. 20, Trump’s approval among Republican subgroups was down to between 71% and 80%
America’s Gen Z is broke and fed up with politics, reports POLITICO’s Catherine Kim.
ISRAEL — NETANYAHU’S LEGACY ON THE LINE IN ELECTION: Israelis voted overnight. Benjamin Netanyahu’s opponents, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, see Tuesday as a day of reckoning.
Exit polls are expected at 7 a.m. this morning, Canberra time.
ONLY IN AUSTRALIA
MURDERER DENIED VEGEMITE IN PRISON: A murderer serving a life sentence in Australia has lost his bid to overturn a ban on prisoners consuming Vegemite, the divisive and iconic Australian spread. Andre McKechnie argued that the ban, in place since 2006, denied him the right to “enjoy his culture as an Australian.” Victorian authorities say the spread is sometimes used to disguise contraband substances or to brew alcohol behind bars.
AGENDA ASSISTANT
Community Affairs: The Aged Care Quality and Safety Commission and Health. Read the full schedule.
Economics: Treasury, the RBA and the ATO. Schedule.
Education and Employment: Employment and Workplace Relations and the Fair Work Commission. Schedule.
Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade: DFAT. Schedule.
Follow all the hearings live on YouTube.
AFTER HOURS
Playbook attended the launch of Fit to Print — the second edition of a book that selects 150 images from the 18,000 image Fairfax Photographic Archive gifted to the National Library of Australia. The work is curated by photographer Mike Bowers, who Albanese rightly described as a national treasurer at the launch.
Albanese reflected on Bowers’ work photographing the day of his wedding to Jodie Haydon, and described his photos as demonstrating “care and compassion.”
In conversation with Michaela Kalowski, Bowers revealed early tricks of the trade of photography in 1890s-to-1940s Australia, from a posed photo with a billy cart apparently hurtling down a hill that was in fact propped in place with stones to the logistics of lugging around glass plates to take just 12 photos a day to Herbert Fishwick’s innovation of sport photography with a 1.2-meter lens to capture the cricket.
COMMUNITY CORNER
YES — THAT’S A 27-METER MOBILE LUNG SCREENING TRUCK YOU JUST DROVE PAST: The 50-tonne vehicle parked just behind Old Parliament House will be there until Oct. 30. It’s in town to raise awareness about lung scarring (pulmonary fibrosis), which is often linked to workplace chemical exposure. Read the report on the incurable condition that’s killing 11 Australians a day.
NEW BOOK: From Playbook reader Liz Buchanan. “Trenches to Tiktok” — on generational rupture on war — is now available for pre-order.
MOVES AND APPOINTMENTS
Cade Smith, media advisor to independent Kate Chaney, is in Parliament for his final day before joining Foodbank. Chaney told Playbook that Smith had “brought energy, humor and wisdom” to her office.
Jacinda Ardern is now a professor of practice at Sydney University, where she will deliver lectures on social cohesion and empathetic leadership.
Meghan, the Duchess of Sussex, will co-host Junior MasterChef Australia, filmed in Melbourne early next year.
BIRTHDAYS
Former opposition leader John Hewson turns 80, former Liberal minister (and Kate Chaney’s uncle) Fred Chaney, former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad turns 70, Microsoft founder Bill Gates.