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FOLLOW U.S. ELECTION NIGHT WITH POLITICO: Track what’s happening across the country and what it means for the next two years at POLITICO.com and in our new mobile app. Then tune in at noon Canberra time, Wednesday Nov 4. for POLITICO Elections Live, where Alex Burns, Jonathan Martin and D.C. Playbook’s Dasha Burns, Adam Wren and Will Steakin break down the results in a show built for people who want the story beyond the numbers.
ESSENTIALS
— Melbourne Cup Day and interest rate decision day in Australia
— Midterm elections day in the U.S.
DRIVING THE DAY
RBA RATES FAIT ACCOMPLI
“A rate hike tomorrow would see more than half an average worker’s wage consumed just in serving their mortgage and hit harder than the 17% rates in the 1990s,” said Shadow Treasurer Tim Wilson.
In 1990, interest rates were 17% for the first few months of the year. That period is regularly cited as the most significant period of financial stress for Australian households. At the time, the average repayment on the average new home loan accounted for 42% of a full-time wage, and 32% of household income.
In the June quarter of 2026, interest rates were above 6%. They were ~6.15%. At the time, the average repayment on the average new home loan accounted for 49% of a full-time wage, and 35% of household income.
Catch-22: The government sees AI as key to fixing Australia’s productivity puzzle, but it’s also pointing out that the AI investment boom is fueling inflation. Rate hikes hit households — not external sources of inflation like petrol prices from a Middle East war or a well-financed AI data center boom.
“You’ve got people in the system who are trying to build God in a Box yesterday, and so they’re just uninterested in commercial realities,” Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis told Playbook. “So the fact that it is not only pushing up their own costs, but pushing up costs for others, is not going to affect their plans. A rate hike by the RBA is irrelevant [to them].”
Hammer time for everyone else? “When you’ve got the inflation pressures coming from sectors that are pretty much impervious to interest rates, you can still get inflation back to target by squeezing the interest-sensitive bits. It feels a bit unfair, but it can work,” Ellis said.
Fiscal screws: The alternative to higher rates is tighter fiscal policy. The Australian reports that analysis by the Coalition reveals that although the government’s claimed savings amount to AU$350 billion over 10 years, the budget bottom line is only AU$178 billion better off, a AU$172 billion difference that suggests Labor savings have been eaten by cost inflation in existing programs.
“Low rent politics”: ACCI chief Andrew McKellar wasn’t a fan of yesterday’s ACTU protest outside the RBA, telling unions to “put down the placards and pick up a mirror.”
“False protests or cheap jack protests, populist things like this — that’s not part of the solution,” he said.
REDDIT HIGH COURT CASE ON SOCIAL MEDIA AGE BAN
Communications Minister Anika Wells may have been named on TIMES100 Next 2026 list of up-and-comers, but perhaps it should have come with a significant asterisk: Australia’s world-leading under-16 social media age ban is yet to survive a High Court challenge.
The case, to be heard in Canberra on Tuesday and Wednesday, pits Reddit, the Digital Freedom Project and U.S.-based digital platforms represented by the Electronic Frontier Foundation against Australian governments, state and federal, which all want to keep the ban.
The plaintiffs argue the social media restrictions breach the freedom of political communication implied in the Australian Constitution.
But kids don’t vote! It doesn’t matter. The implied freedom protects speech about political matters that may help others’ decide their vote. In 2012, the High Court cited the implied freedom to strike down a ban on union and corporate donations – they don’t vote either.
Legit purpose: Reddit conceded in the agreed facts of the case that there is a credible risk social media is addictive. So that’s a handy headstart for the Commonwealth arguing the law has a legitimate purpose. The case will likely come down to whether an account ban is an appropriate and adapted way to achieve it.
Kids stream and not heard: The restrictions ban kids from having accounts, but they can still access social media. That could cut both ways: On the one hand, it means the restrictions aren’t that effective at preventing harms; on the other, it’s less of an imposition on their rights. Expect a reserved judgment and months-long wait. The right to post is a thorny one.
MIDTERMS MADNESS
IT’S ELECTION DAY ACROSS AMERICA: There are seven Senate races with global consequences stretching from end-to-end across North America.
While the Senate remains impossible to predict, the latest NYT / Siena poll (highly regarded) is brutal for Republicans, putting them behind in every key Senate race from Michigan to Texas and to Maine to Alaska. Those numbers may explain why Trump completed his last rally of the campaign in Kansas, which hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1930.
It’s now assumed across the board that Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives.
House control for Democrats = Blue Wave.
Senate control = Blue Tsunami.
Check out Nate Silver’s simulations for possible outcomes across House, Senate and governors’ races.
Democrat civil war in Michigan: About half of Michigan’s likely Democratic voters had already turned out when the loser of the state’s Democratic Senate primary, Rep. Haley Stevens, stunningly announced she was backing the Republican candidate. The Democratic candidate, Abdul El-Sayed, raised US$1.2 million in four hours after the flip.
Inside Trump’s midterms dogfight: Megan Messerly spoke to 20 campaign advisers, officials and donors across nine states. They insist early turnout data is better for them than assumed, including among less likely Trump voters.
The Blacklash has arrived: Anger at Trump is driving new levels of turnout among Black voters in the American South, reports our top correspondent Jonathan Martin.
Texas hold ‘em — Gov. Greg Abbott’s empire is showing cracks: He should have been cruising to a fourth term, now his job is on the line.
NATO FEARS GROW: European allies fear a Republican Party defeat could spur President Donald Trump to dramatically step up his attacks on the alliance, according to NATO diplomats.
Iran provides another flashpoint: “The most immediate impact globally of a sweeping Democratic victory Tuesday would be over the fate of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and the Iran war,” said Martin. “The last time a wartime GOP president suffered catastrophic midterm defeat was in 2006 — and then-President Bush immediately sacked his Pentagon chief, Donald Rumsfeld.
“If President Trump doesn’t fire Hegseth he may have a mess on his hands. Congressional Democrats have made clear they’re open to impeaching the Defense secretary.”
“More broadly, Democrats taking control of Congress would hand them the power of the purse,” but that’s still subject to a presidential veto.
ELECTION INTERFERENCE: ABC’s Four Corners aired an investigation into how President Trump could interfere in midterm results if initial numbers look bad for Republicans. The network spoke to former U.S. spy chiefs and political advisers.
HOW TO WATCH THE MIDTERMS LIKE A PRO
Check out POLITICO’s live blog.
When will news happen? Most polls close Wednesday, 9 a.m., Australian Eastern Daylight Savings Time. The final booth closes at 4 p.m., in Alaska.
Here’s where you can convene in Canberra for live coverage:
— The University of Canberra is hosting a panel discussion from 11:30 a.m. to 12:30 p.m., followed by live coverage until 5 p.m. at UC Refectory. Registration.
— The National Press Club Lounge will air the latest election coverage live on the big screens from 11:00a.m. Reservations recommended for large groups.
For post-election analysis: Playbook’s Ryan Heath will talk through the results at a special event hosted with the United States Studies Centre on Thursday evening (in Sydney). POLITICO executive editor Carrie Budoff Brown is joining remotely to share her insights. Registration.
Did we miss any events? Let us know.
BY THE NUMBERS
DECLINING TRUST IN DEMOCRACY, MORE SUPPORT FOR VIOLENCE
28%: The number of Australian men aged 18-24 who say “extreme measures” like violence are sometimes justified, according to the latest McKinnon Index.
9%: The increase in that cohort in just a year.
31%: Trust in federal politicians nationally, down 5 percentage points since last year.
24%: Trust in political parties, down 5.4 percentage points.
51%: The share of Australians who are satisfied with the way democracy works.
49%: The number of non-university educated Australians who are “confident” in election outcomes, compared to 72% of university graduates.
CANBERRA MEETS WORLD
ALBO’S MESSAGE ON UK VISA EXEMPTIONS: BURN’EM
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese spent the past week urging parliament to pass his free trade agreement with the European Union. This week, he’s in Antigua for the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting attempting to convince UK PM Andy Burnham to tweak another.
The number of British backpackers has doubled to nearly 80,000 since the two countries signed an FTA in 2021 that waived requirements for stints working in regional and rural areas. Albanese will urge Burnham to accept a reintroduction of that requirement.
Yes, but: Waiving the requirement was a win for the UK in a deal that otherwise caused a lot of controversy in Britain. What incentive does Burnham have to give it away?
“Outsourcing it to Andy Burnham”: How Opposition leader Angus Taylor described Albanese’s cap-in-hand act. “We want more of them going to rural and regional areas,” Taylor said.
Numbers of Australians granted backpacker visas to the UK in recent years: Under 10,000 a year in 2023, 2024 and 2025. Running at about 2,000 per quarter in 2026.
I don’t like cricket: Not 24 hours before a rate rise, at least. The PM wisely decided to sit out of a leaders’ cricket match yesterday, which would’ve been a bad look if the RBA hits mortgage holders for six.
SIXTH EYE?: The Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security Chair Sen. Raff Ciccone, along with members Lib MP Andrew Wallace and Labor MP Tania Lawrence, are meeting Japanese officials in Tokyo this week. Japan is edging towards a long-term goal of joining the Five Eyes partnership.
Mutually assured construction: The Five Eyes partners and Japan all have a vested interest in deepening ties, given Tokyo’s on the frontline of China’s military rise and North Korean provocations. But joining Five Eyes would require it to modernize its intelligence system. Read more on that from the American Security Project here.
“Japan will design the system that suits Japan,” Ciccone said. “The PJCIS welcomes the opportunity to share what has worked for Australia and what we have learnt along the way.”
ACADEMICS PRESSURE ALBO AHEAD OF COP
A group of more than 500 academics has written to Albanese ahead of next week’s COP31 climate summit in Turkey warning that Australia’s credibility as president of negotiations “rests on consistency between what it asks of others and what it does itself.” The letter says championing Pacific access to finance “while approving decades of new coal and gas invites the charge of hypocrisy.”
Signatories include: Lesley Hughes, a former lead author of two IPCC reports; Bill Hare, CEO and senior scientist at Climate Analytics, also a former IPCC lead author; and Anne Poelina, chair of Indigenous Knowledges at the Nulungu Research Institute, University of Notre Dame.
The academics have demanded Australia end approvals for fossil fuel projects, including the Hunter Valley Operations continuation project and Beetaloo basin; legislate a binding phase-out timetable; and negotiate loss and damage provisions and adaptation finance at COP31.
STATE OF THE NATION
STARTER’S GUN: NSW has become the first state to implement the national gun buyback scheme introduced after the Bondi terror attack. But NSW Premier Chris Minns is friendless on the issue — only the ACT plans to follow suit, and NSW Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane has said owners may hold onto their guns (in case the Coalition is elected in March 2027).
THE GOOD OLD DAYS: NAPLAN tests for year 5 students will return to pen-and-paper from 2028 after state and territory education ministers met yesterday, Lucy Carroll reports for The Australian, and Playbook has independently confirmed.
INSPECTOR: NACC CONTROVERSY ‘UNFORTUNATELY’ DOMINATED
The Inspector of the National Anti-Corruption Commission’s 2025-26 annual report was tabled on Friday. Inspector Gail Furness already gave her reasons in July for her decision to discontinue investigations into the former NACC commissioner Paul Brereton, including a complaint in relation to his ongoing role with the Inspector-General of the Australian Defence Force. Tl;Dr — too costly to bother with, given he’d already quit.
In the report, Furness goes a little further: “This third year of the operation of the NACC and my role as Inspector was, unfortunately, dominated by complaints and public commentary about actual and perceived conflicts of interest by the then Commissioner.”
Complaints up: Furness said she had received 213 complaints in 2025-26, up from 75 the previous year (excluding robodebt). “This increase is largely due to 102 complaints I received about the former Commissioner’s handling of Defence-related matters,” she said.
Complaints about robodebt and the NACC’s (related) Operation Myrtleford investigation have decreased from 1,164 in 2023-24 to 142 in 2024-25 to 16 in 2025-26.
But their emails: The inspector’s report also reveals in February 2026 the commissioner referred that “a NACC officer had sent 161 emails from their NACC email address to their personal email address, including some which contained sensitive official information about referrals to the Commission.” This sparked a code of conduct investigation that was ongoing at the end of the financial year.
PARTY ROOM
CANAVAN RUNNING IN CAPRICORNIA, ASHBY RULES IT OUT:
Sen. Matt Canavan launched his campaign to be the Net Zero Hero of Central Queensland, seeking not so much to reverse the policy, but to smash it to pieces after reversing it.
The Nationals leader has confirmed Canberra’s worst-kept secret: He wants to switch to the lower house by running in Capricornia, vacated by outgoing MP Michelle Landry.
Canavan was eager to play up the risk he was taking, telling reporters: “I’m happy to put my political future on the line … My political career may die, but I’m not going to die wondering.”
Yes, but: The LNP currently holds Capricornia on a 2PP margin of 11%. That may make it a safer option for Canavan than its second Senate slot in Queensland, which could be under threat from One Nation if the LNP’s primary vote dips below 25% — an outside possibility.
Free run?: One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson and her right-hand man, One Nation national director James Ashby, put an end to long-running speculation by both confirming they won’t be challenging Canavan for the seat.
“Capricornia is a seat One Nation can win, so I intend to throw the resources and people behind a strong campaign,” Ashby said.
So where could Hanson run?: Most seats in Queensland, but her political story is wrapped up in Ipswich, where she ran a fish and chip shop. That’s in Blair, which Labor MP Shayne Neumann retained on an 11% margin last year.
Liberal frontbencher Andrew Hastie was quick to point out that Hanson would be “the oldest prime minister ever elected in this country.”
AGENDA ASSISTANT
NATIONAL PRESS CLUB: Midnight Oil frontman and former Labor frontbencher Peter Garrett and retired Admiral Chris Barrie will appear at the venue to discuss their concerns about the AUKUS nuclear submarine alliance with the U.S. and UK on Wednesday. You can get your tickets here.
FREQUENT FLYERS
Lucy Turnbull is headlining an event at the Australia Consulate in New York next Monday Nov. 9. “What Makes A City Tick?” is a panel discussion with Turnbull, former Lord Mayor of Sydney; Steven Fulop, former Mayor of Jersey City; and NYU’s Marc Norman. Register here
LOCAL CANBERRA
BUSH DANCE
The 42nd annual Canberra Bushdance, organised by Pink Tennis, Canberra’s Australia’s oldest LGBTIQ+ sports group, is on Nov. 14 at Yarralumla Woolshed. For those who haven’t been, it’s folk dancing to a live band in an iconic setting. Unusually for this close to the event, it is not (yet) sold out so get a ticket.
MOVES AND APPOINTMENTS
Elysse Halliday, senior adviser to Sen. Jane Hume, has taken unpaid leave to work on the Liberals’ Victorian state election campaign.
BIRTHDAYS
Former WA opposition leader Mia Davies, ACT Greens MLA Laura Nuttall, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo, Former American Vogue editor Anna Wintour.