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ESSENTIALS
— Helen Haines remains critical but stable
— EU tells POLITICO that trade deal negotiations will not be reopened. Tim Wilson defiant.
— Lobbying industry retools to cope with One Nation’s rise
DRIVING THE DAY
The latest on Haines’ condition: The member for Indi remains in a “critical but stable condition” after being attacked multiple times with a 4WD on Monday afternoon. Haines has lost one leg and may yet lose the other.
Details about the attack: Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke said Haines was moving items in the boot of her car on Monday afternoon when a 4WD did a sharp U-turn and targeted the MP. Haines was pinned against another vehicle before the 4WD reversed and struck her three times, per Cody Lepoidevin, one of the first to assist Haines. “You can’t unhear them,” he said of the screams.
EXTREMISM INQUIRY CONVENES IN WAKE OF HELEN HAINES ATTACK
The Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security will sit in Canberra from 10 a.m., two days after independent Haines was critically injured in an attack outside her Wangarratta electorate office. The hearing, which is looking into the driving forces of radicalization, was planned before the attack, but now has extra salience.
We’ll hear from:
- The eSafety commissioner
- ASIO and the AFP
- The Home Affairs Department
The Australian Federal Police submission to the inquiry notes the difficulty of categorizing ideological motivations. “Some individuals demonstrate ideological fluidity, moving between extremist belief systems, adopting elements from multiple ideologies, or espousing incoherent and rapidly evolving worldviews,” it said.
In such ambiguous environments there are “significant challenges as traditional indicators based on established ideological affiliations may be less reliable, also making prevention and disengagement efforts more complicated.”
POLICE SEARCH FOR MOTIVATION AMID MUDDLED VIEWS
The Daily Telegraph reported that Triple-0 first responders were initially warned not to approach the scene, where a man “does have a knife, one vehicle has been rammed, one patient is currently located under the vehicle with a severed leg [and] a tourniquet has been applied.”
“Very erratic and irrational”: How one witness who came to Haines’ aid described the alleged attacker to News24.
What we know about the suspect: A 43-year-old man, Brendan Nugent, was charged yesterday evening with dangerous driving causing serious injury, intentionally causing serious injury and the Commonwealth offense of causing harm to a Commonwealth public official. The Commonwealth offense carries a maximum penalty of 10 years jail. He will appear at Wangaratta Magistrates’ Court on Wednesday.
Nugent was not interviewed immediately after his Monday arrest — deemed to be impaired by alcohol and/or drugs. The motive remains unconfirmed and Nugent has undergone a mental health assessment.
Victoria Police revealed he lives in Tarrawingee, a town in Haines’ electorate roughly 12 kilometers from Wangaratta, where she was attacked.
Family connection: Nugent’s father Rod Nugent and his partner Christine Cunningham said in a statement that Haines “has been our friend for more than 20 years, and what happened to her yesterday is devastating and unfathomable.” Here’s a photo of Cunningham and Haines together last year.
The rabbit hole: Social media accounts linked to Nugent demonstrate a slide from environmentalism to conspiracy. The posts became less frequent in recent years, but got increasingly conspiratorial and fixated on geopolitics, especially the conflict in Gaza.
Haines and Nugent followed each other on the social platform X. Read the full article from ABC Verify.
WORDS MATTER, SECURITY AGENCY SAYS
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s decision to link the attack to increasingly violent political rhetoric prompted pushback from those lobbying against the government’s proposed digital duty of care (Drew Pavlou, Michael Shellenberger), who joined those dots themselves and claimed Albanese is using the tragedy to justify censorship.
But the central thrust of his argument — that words matter and can inspire violence — was backed by the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation Director-General Mike Burgess.
In a statement, Burgess said: “Elevated levels of grievance, intolerance and polarisation continue to create a permissive environment of violence. I have repeatedly put on the record my concern about the use of violent rhetoric in public discourse. Words matter.
“While political differences, debates and peaceful protests are essential parts of a healthy democracy, ASIO has seen direct correlations between inflamed language, inflamed tensions and acts of violence. Disagreement is okay but acts of violence and intimidation are not — especially against those democratically chosen to represent us.
“This incident occurred in an environment where politically motivated violence is more likely than previous years. I genuinely believe the temperature of our security environment would be several degrees lower if we recommitted to conversing with civility, debating with respect and disagreeing with restraint.”
HOME AFFAIRS REVIEWED PARLIAMENTARIAN SECURITY IN 2024
The Home Affairs Department and the Australian Federal Police completed a review of security arrangements for parliamentarians in late 2024 — commissioned to “keep pace with the degrading security environment.” But the probe, mentioned as a priority in an incoming minister brief for Burke, has never been released for security reasons.
A Home Affairs spokesperson told Playbook it recommended “opportunities to improve service delivery and communications with parliamentarians” to protective security agencies. “Agencies have made substantial progress on the review’s recommendations and continue to collaborate on addressing remaining actions,” the spokesperson said.
We’ll have to take their word for it as there’s nothing to verify. A 2024 estimates brief said its scope included “the personal and physical protective security of parliamentarians and Australian High Office holders, which includes their offices, staff, residences, places of work and events and activities related to their work.”
The government in May promised $17 million over the next four years for electorate office security upgrades.
HANSON MEA CULPA ON CARTOON, BUT CONTINUES TO BLAME PM
One Nation Leader Pauline Hanson on Tuesday apologized for a cartoon mocking independent Sen. Jacqui Lambie’s medical condition, after telling Lambie to “get over it” hours before the Haines attack.
“The video went out without my actually seeing it,” Hanson admitted. “It wasn’t as tastefully done as it could have been, and I do apologize.” She went on to blame an assortment of groups — including the government, but not One Nation — for the current febrile atmosphere.
ACTUALLY TAKING THE TEMPERATURE DOWN: “I don’t think it’s a day to say this or that a political party’s to blame. We should all be reflecting on how we can be better stewards of democracy,” Liberal frontbencher Andrew Hastie told News24. “We all have a role to play, and it can’t just be finger pointing.”
— Taking the temperature down is an important sentiment, but it’s not a strategy for change, writes Licia Heath for AFR.
— The sister of murdered UK MP Jo Cox has called on Australia to see the Haines attack as a turning point, ABC reported.
THE PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW
TIM WILSON — ON EMBRACING RISK AND MAKING HIMSELF A BIG TARGET
Shadow Treasurer Tim Wilson reflects on political security in light of the attack on Helen Haines, as well as what’s needed to turn around Australia’s flailing productivity. He spoke with Amanda Copp about the unsung benefits of embracing risk to help the economy and his own party.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
Read the full transcript. Listen to the podcast version by clicking the image below.
Do you think aggression and threats to politicians have gotten worse?
As a benchmark, when I was last in office I had security very rarely. That was from 2016 to 2022, then I lost in 2022 and came back in 2025. I now regularly have AFP protection at public events because of the heightened security environment.
But I’m shocked, as everybody is, about the aggression that seems to have been shown towards her. Because she’s one of the most inoffensive members of parliament. It’s a reminder that sometimes a target isn’t just the most controversial people, it’s often those most accessible.
One of your own MPs, Angie Bell, said last week that Anne Aly should be “stoned in the square” during a debate in parliament. Do you think language like that is appropriate?
The short answer is no, and I don’t think Angie does either. She withdrew that at the time. I think she got caught up in a moment, and she immediately withdrew it.
The Coalition could reject the EU free trade agreement. How is that aligned with liberal values of free markets?
We haven’t committed to opposing it in a formal sense through parliament. We still have to go through parliamentary processes and our own internal processes. We haven’t even seen the legislation, and it still has to go through the Joint Standing Committee on Treaties.
Australia is a country that has largely unilaterally liberalized its trade, so most of the advantage we get is when other countries remove their barriers. This agreement doesn’t do much of that. What it does do is get European regulation and effectively through the free trade agreement tries to export it to Australia.
What is the hardest thing to convince voters to support when it comes to the economy?
I think a lot of people hear productivity as “working harder and getting less.” Actually, it’s about how do we improve living standards. But it requires a trade-off: We all have to adjust to changing economic conditions.
We’ve operated in this model, which is — the government’s job and the regulator’s job is to minimize risk — rather than saying you have to manage risk as part of a pathway towards growth.
You’re the only Liberal to win back a Teal seat. How do you do that now, when your party’s biggest threat is from One Nation?
Well, I don’t see them as radically different political forces, which will surprise a lot of people. On an ideological spectrum they’re quite divergent, but I think they have similar core equities which is a perception around trust.
The old political model has been this kind of pendulum where it swings from Labor to Liberal. I don’t think it works that way now. I think we now have multiple axes, and you don’t have the luxury of being a small target. You need to be a big target, wanting to decide the nation’s future.
What is the biggest threat to the survival of the Liberal Party at the moment?
I think it’s a lack of confidence within ourselves. I have a very strong view about where we need to go and why we need to go there, and we need to be the biggest, boldest Liberals that the country compels us to be right now.
The era of just doling out money is gone. That will only stoke inflation and make the problem worse. We actually need an attitudinal shift in government, in commerce, and the extent to which people have an appetite for risk.
CANBERRA MEETS WORLD
SCOOP — EU TO AUSTRALIA: ‘ONCE NEGOTIATIONS ARE DONE, THEY’RE DONE’
The EU has ruled out reopening its free trade agreement with Australia, with its trade spokesperson telling POLITICO the trade deal with Australia is settled — regardless of new Coalition concerns.
“The EU has the world’s largest network of free trade agreements. We invest years in getting these deals right, ensuring they are balanced, ambitious and offer benefits for both us and our partners,” Commission trade spokesperson Olof Gill told us. “Once negotiations are done, they are done.”
Gill said the Commission aims to propose the agreement for signature and conclusion in early 2027, and dismissed Coalition concerns that the deal would tie Australia’s hands on future energy and climate policy: “The agreement is balanced and has been agreed by both sides.”
Shadow Treasurer Tim Wilson, one of the Coalition MPs who went public with concerns about the deal last week, told Canberra Playbook Podcast that while the opposition had not taken a “formal” position, “the problem is I don’t really see how we massively win out of this trade agreement right now.”
“I’m happy for it to be proven to the Parliament,” he said, “but we aren’t really seeing that at the moment.”
A looming risk for Trade Minister Don Farrell is that Wilson believes the deal has not substantially improved since Farrell walked out of the talks in 2023.
Read the full report from Ryan Heath, Amanda Copp and Camille Gijs in Brussels.
GREENS OFFER LABOR A PATHWAY ON EU FTA: Greens trade spokesperson Sarah Hanson-Young weighed in for the first time: “There is a lot to consider in the Australia–EU trade deal, but it could be a positive step if it delivers genuine benefits for people, workers and the environment.”
The statement is subject to seeing the final translated text and a Greens party room debate — and indicates the party hasn’t yet paid much attention to the deal. Still, it’s a slightly positive sign for Farrell. Hanson-Young said she “will be kicking the tires on the Agreement’s climate and environmental commitments to see what they actually deliver.”
Hanson-Young said the Coalition is “all over the shop because they are letting One Nation lead them by the nose. They are so obsessed with any mention of climate change that they seem incapable of having a sensible conversation about trade policy. That is not a serious way to approach an agreement with one of Australia’s major economic partners.”
AUSTRALIA LIKELY TO OPEN NEW LEGAL FRONT IN BATTLES WITH TECH PLATFORMS: Bloomberg reported that Communications Minister Anika Wells expects legal action targeting platform noncompliance with teen social media safety rules. “It’s not my decision, but I would expect it,” she told Angus Whitley.
STATE OF THE NATION
LOBBYISTS ARE REBRANDING IN RESPONSE TO ONE NATION SURGE
The major party focus of Australia’s lobbying industry is shifting, as Australia’s political influencers bet that a three-way political system could be emerging, reports Miriam Webber. “They’re already having an influence,” because of their headline-grabbing ability, said Simon Banks, CEO of the Labor-aligned firm Hawker Britton.
While the party is still in scale-up mode, that’s a major opportunity for lobbyists to influence. Delta Advisory founder Sally Mackenzie said she’d noticed lobbying firms making changes, with the old mode of “employing a red person and a blue person” going out of fashion.
Former Liberal adviser David Gazard, who runs DPG Advisory, has leaned into media coverage of his decision to hire Hollie Hughes — a former Liberal senator who became a One Nation party member earlier this year.
Longtime political lobbyist Michael Kauter, who established one of Canberra’s first crossbench government relations firms back in 2014, says of One Nation: “They’re open to meeting with people from all sorts of backgrounds and political persuasions, including those who haven’t always agreed with them. But, Kauter warned, “getting a meeting is one thing. Building a lasting professional relationship is quite another.”
COMMUNITY INDEPENDENTS, A BETTER WAY FOR FRUSTRATION
Independent Sen. David Pocock will address the National Press Club today, paying tribute to Haines and discussing the role of vested interests in voter disenchantment.
Haines said in her 2019 first speech to parliament: “Disengagement from politics is being exploited into fear and polarization. In Indi there is a different story. Division and polarization are not the inevitable outcome of disengagement — it can be channeled productively.”
Four different Voices Of groups will attend the Pocock speech, offshoots of the community independents’ organizing model first developed by former member for Indi Cathy McGowan, who was succeeded by Haines in the 2019 election — the first time an independent has succeeded an independent in a federal seat.
Pocock will argue that One Nation is not the only destination for a protest vote. Independents are often underrated by pollsters because unless a candidate is selected and named they are not included in polls this far out from the election, he will say.
One Nation’s strong primary vote, if replicated at an election, would create opportunities for independents: fracturing the major party vote and possibly resulting in voters opting for an independent as their second preference.
TWO BIG BANANAS IN SEARCH OF SOLUTIONS
Sen. Matt Canavan will be photo-opping outside The Big Banana today in Coffs Harbour to hammer Coles for withdrawing local bananas from the region’s supermarket shelves in favor of Northern QLD suppliers. That’s his way into complaining that the banana industry nationally “faces a potential wipe out with imports from the Philippines still under consideration by the Albanese Government.”
What does he mean? The Department of Agriculture is conducting a biosecurity import risk analysis at the request of the Philippines government, which hopes for new quarantine protocols for importing fresh Cavendish bananas from the Philippines.
Not so big banana industry: Today, virtually none of the hills around Coffs Harbour are banana farms. Coffs Harbour produced 80% of Australia’s bananas by the mid-1960s when the Big Banana opened. Since the 1980s the production shifted to QLD, and as the local Sikh population moved from working to owning local farms they shifted many of them to higher margin and easier-to-work blueberry farms. Others were subdivided to house a growing tourism workforce.
AGENDA ASSISTANT
Pork-barreling claims centering on the Marrickville Golf Club grants will be revived when the Rural and Regional Affairs and Transport Committee sits from 10 a.m. today. It’ll hear from constitutional law expert Anne Twomey,
Federal department bosses will gather in Canberra for the monthly Secretaries Board meeting.
Assistant Treasurer Daniel Mulino will speak at the Business Council of Co-operatives and Mutuals Leaders’ Summit in Sydney this morning.
REQUIRED READING
Take a minute to read this 2022 profile of Helen Haines, by Bronwyn Adcock for The Monthly.
LOCAL CANBERRA
WHAT WOULD IT TAKE TO OUST ACT LABOR: Funnily enough, it’s the Liberal Party finally becoming a credible opposition, former chief minister Garry Humphries tells the ABC’s Monte Bovill.
MOVES AND APPOINTMENTS
Former Prime Minister Julia Gillard has joined the international advisory board of London-based Hakluyt, which “advises decision-makers on the opportunities and risks facing their businesses.”
BIRTHDAYS
We hope these pairs are celebrating together today:
SMH national correspondent Rob Harris and billionaire entrepreneur Kim Kardashian.
Former Liberal MP Jenny Ware and former Trump White House communications director Hope Hicks,
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and disgraced former British Minister and European Commissioner Peter Mandelson,