Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers addresses the National Press Club in the Great Hall on May 13, 2026, in Canberra, Australia. | Hilary Wardhaugh/Getty Images

To counter One Nation, Treasurer Jim Chalmers is adopting more muscular messaging, in the style of U.K. Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

CANBERRA — Sensing danger in the electorate’s sustained flirtation with One Nation, Treasurer Jim Chalmers is sharpening attacks on what he sees as the right-wing nationalist party’s remaining weakness: doubts that it’s competent to govern.

Chalmers made that case Tuesday night to an Australia Institute audience at Canberra’s Shine Dome — the sort of left-wing crowd of Labor, Green and nonaligned progressives who tend to offer only lukewarm support for the Albanese Labor government.

“Hoping the far right goes away or implodes again is not actually a strategy,” Chalmers said.

His promise: that he’ll act with “courage and ambition” in the style of former Treasury Secretary and Reserve Bank Governor Bernie Fraser, who was in the audience.

Chalmers is attempting to pull off a complicated twin-track message ahead of back-to-back international trips, including to the International Monetary Fund’s annual off-site meeting for finance ministers, starting Friday, where the chief topic will be how to keep a lid on bond yields and interest rates.

The IMF made that messaging effort harder Tuesday, writing in its new World Economic Outlook recommending “fiscal consolidation” for “countries with above-target inflation or elevated underlying inflationary pressures,” such as Australia. The IMF also cut the country’s growth outlook to 1.9% this year and 1.6% in 2027.

On one hand, Chalmers said, One Nation voters have legitimate grievances about the state of the economy — and these need to be addressed through government policy.

And yet the fundamentals of Australia’s economy — which include 4% inflation, rising interest rates and stalled productivity growth — are not that bad, in the treasurer’s view.

Instead, he said, it is “endless negativity” and “algorithmic rage bait” that is creating a “self-fulfilling prophecy” in public debate and could push Australia into recession.

“The far right strategy is to divide people and it’s working; their goal is to talk down our economy,” Chalmers said.

Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock blames a mix of factors for rising inflation, including the Iran war and data center investment, but critics accuse the RBA of going quiet on the role of government spending.

The Coalition Opposition argues Chalmers is seeking excuses for inflation instead of making bigger savings. Chris Minns, the Labor Premier of New South Wales, also regularly contrasts the fiscal discipline of his state Labor government from federal counterparts.

The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry argues that much of Australia’s inflation is homegrown, with the nontradable component of inflation including housing and education, sitting at 4.5%.

“The government has the ability to address this homegrown inflation problem by reducing government spending and addressing the regulatory and red tape burdens that are driving up costs,” said CEO Andrew McKellar.

Chalmers rejects the criticism that he’s not doing enough to cut spending or reduce inflation.

First, the treasurer’s now familiar refrain is federal “budgets aren’t the primary driver of prices in our economy,” because they make up only about 1 in 4 dollars spent across the economy.

Second, he said the Coalition has blocked Labor’s savings efforts while failing to find offsets for their own policies including higher defense spending.

Finally, his team cited 180 billion Australian dollars in savings since coming to government in 2022, in an emailed statement.

That is true only in the context of a federal budget deficit, which grew year over year.

The underlying cash deficit rose from AU$10 billion in 2024–25 to AU$22.3 billion in 2025–26 and is expected to rise to AU$31.5 billion in 2026–27. As a share of GDP, it increased from 0.4% to 0.8%.

But the treasurer admits that the facts — to the extent they are on his side — are not helping his case.

“We have all the facts to push back on this, but facts don’t beat feelings. Feelings are as real as facts,” he said.

With One Nation’s polling support doubling in 2026, and growing fourfold since the May 2025 federal election — to an average 28%, putting them level with the Labor government — the feelings are only growing more powerful.

If you can’t beat ‘em, Burnham

Part of the answer, Chalmers thinks, is to speak more plainly about the challenges he juggles. Case in point: “The war in the Middle East has been an absolute disaster for the cost of living, and its end can’t come soon enough,” he said.

Chalmers rationalizes One Nation’s appeal as anchored in nostalgia: “The past will always feel safe and familiar and desirable because by definition we understand it better than we understand the future.”

But he warned this progressive audience not to: “scold those who see appeal in that message,” or “cancel them or talk down to them.”

Instead, he warned “parties of the left” not to “inadvertently become the party of the status quo” and to keep in constant motion.

He said he is keenly aware that a “combination of near-term pressure and transformational change” in the form of artificial intelligence is making voters uneasy. These forces have “shifted the ground under people, made them feel more disconnected from opportunity, even disregarded.”

But the bit that really angers Chalmers is the role of “algorithmic rage bait” in our daily information diet.

Chalmers holds out hope that there will be better news on inflation and real wages in 2027, but knows voter patience is thin and many events are out of his hands: “So much of the next year will be hostage to decisions taken in Washington, on Wall Street, in Tehran,” he warned.

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Australia's Chalmers takes aim at One Nation’s weak spot: Governing