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Democracy is under scrutiny from Lagos to Mexico City this week. Geopolitics continues to rumble through Europe, but maybe also the South Pole. And there’s good news from the largest organized trial of a four-day work week, if you’re keen on more flexibility in your office or factory schedule.
THE WEEK AHEAD
MONDAY
BREXIT DEAL, AGAIN: The European Union and U.K. government are in final talks today — in the English countryside in Berkshire — for . Expect a result from around 10 a.m ET / 3 p.m. local time.
NIGERIAN ELECTION: Presidential and parliamentary results are trickling in for the biggest African election — in the world’s fifth-largest democracy — where around . It’s not just the size of the youth voting bloc that’s unique: Nigeria’s young are deeply pessimistic: In the most recent , conducted by the Ichikowitz Foundation in 2022, 95 percent said their country is heading in the wrong direction.
Outsider candidate state, the region that includes the city of the same name. .
The election campaign featured the and a , and the final results will take several days to tally. The National Democratic Institute and International Republican Institute have deployed a joint election observation mission.
TUESDAY
Florida Gov, Ron DeSantis soft launches his bid for the White House with the publication of his book “The Courage to Be Free.” The book is published by HarperCollins, which is owned by Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp, which also published the first excerpt,
Former L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti finally gets his chance at Senate confirmation as U.S. Ambassador to India in .
FRIDAY
President Joe Biden will host German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the White House and discuss issues from Russian aggression to “working together on shared challenges posed by China and our cooperation in the Indo-Pacific.” There is no State Dinner for Scholz.
WHERE TO JOIN GLOBAL INSIDER TODAY: Ryan will be leading a conversation with the EU Ambassador to the U.S. Stavros Lambrinidis, Ukraine Ambassador Oksana Markarova and Swedish deputy head of mission Ingrid Ask on the EU’s promise to stand by Ukraine ”as long as it takes,” hosted by the Atlantic Council. .
GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS
DEMOCRACY — MASS PROTEST AGAINST MEXICAN ELECTORAL SHAKE-UP: Up to 100,000 people on Sunday in Mexico City— changes that President Andrés Manuel López Obrador says he will sign into law soon. The new law would “cut salaries, funding for local election offices and training for citizens who operate and oversee polling stations,” AP reported. The rules also reduce penalties for candidates who fail to report campaign spending.
DEMOCRACY — TIME TO INVESTIGATE CHINESE INFLUENCE ON CANADIAN ELECTIONS? Canada needs a into , according to the country’s former spymaster, Richard Fadden, after a from Global News's Sam Cooper that a sitting Liberal MP, Han Dong, was aided by China's Toronto consulate when he ran for the party nomination in 2019. .
ECONOMY — CORPORATE TAX GAINS, BY THE NUMBERS: With implementation underway on elements of a global corporate tax deal reached in late 2021, the nonpartisan Tax Foundation has on how additional tax they expect to collect from multinational companies under the new system.
The OECD is at the optimistic end of the range: predicting a 9 percent increase in overall receipts. National government estimates range from the Netherlands which is betting on just a 2 percent rise, to France with 12 percent. "Given the uncertainty of these estimates, policymakers should be cautious about sacrificing their country’s competitiveness" in their efforts to implement the new rules, said Daniel Bunn, president of the Tax Foundation.
ECONOMY — SUCCESS IN FOUR-DAY WORK WEEK: A four-day working week boosts revenue and makes staff happier according to last year.
By the numbers:
— 56 of the 61 participating organizations will retain their four-day system
— 71 percent of employees reported lower levels of burnout compared to the pre-trial period
— 65 percent reduction in sick days taken
— 57 percent drop in the number of staff leaving
TECH — FEAR OF FOREIGN AI INFLUENCE: reveals 70 percent of Americans are concerned about foreign powers’ potential use of AI against U.S. interests. That makes potential foreign AI influence the second-biggest concern of American online users, after privacy, which 74 percent worry is not adequately protected.
TECH — POLITICO’s Tom Bristow and Annabelle Dickson take you into the working of Britain’s newly minted Department for Science, Innovation and Technology — created from a string of other departments and agencies to better coordinate U.K. digital investments and regulations, which include a proposed Data Protection and Digital Information Bill, and online content moderation rules. The new department somewhat mirrors the , which dates back to 1976.
The U.K. Conservative government also recently created the Advanced Research and Invention Agency, with a budget of just under $1 billion — as the country’s answer to DARPA, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency — with a promise to focus on developing “transformative” technologies.
POLITICO Power List:.
COVID — ANOTHER U.S. AGENCY CONCLUDES IT WAS A LAB LEAK IN CHINA:
The U.S. Energy Department has joined the FBI in concluding that the most likely arose from a laboratory leak, The . That still leaves the department in the minority: Four other U.S. government agencies, along with a national intelligence panel, believe was the cause.
UKRAINE — DID YOU KNOW? Reactions to Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine includes a novel approach to continuing education for Ukrainian university students. The , delivered by the , is a set of mega courses offered to students from 30 Ukrainian education institutions. .
GEOPOLITICS — GREAT POWER COMPETITION HEADS TO SOUTH POLE: Earlier this month Beijing announced plans to construct new satellite ground stations around China’s Zhongshan Antarctic research facility. They’re an example of dual use technology: that which have legitimate research functions, but which can easily be repurposed for military applications. Daniel Runde and Henry Ziemer of CSIS argue .
While the Arctic region has long been part of geopolitical debate — it’s inhabited, home to shipping interests and calls the world’s biggest military powers its neighbors — Antarctica has long been off-limits for politics.
The southern polar region is the subject of a preventing military and mining action — but that’s due for renewal in 2059, and any discovery of new mineral deposits or new technologies that lower the cost of mining in inhospitable places could change the dynamic.
Context:
— are party to the Antarctic Treaty, and 30 countries maintain 82 research stations
— All five of the official are in democracies: Cape Town in South Africa, Christchurch in New Zealand, Hobart in Australia, Punta Arenas in Chile, and Ushuaia in Argentina.
GLOBETROTTERS
BRITISH SLAVE-OWNING FAMILY SETS UP REPARATION FUND: The has launched a Reparations Research Fund at the University of the West Indies in an effort to atone for its slave-owning past. In 1835 the family received the equivalent of $3.2 million as compensation for abolishing its part-ownership of 1,004 slaves — and its today adding around $100,000 to the research fund, which will be launched by the Hilary Beckles, chair of the .
CLEAR EXPANDS INTERNATIONALLY: The system elite travelers use to cut the security line at , is now operating in four European airports. The “ lane” is now at Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Berlin and Rome airports.
GRANT SHAPPS AND HIS UKRAINIAN REFUGEE FAMILY: The British minister in charge of energy security has hosted three Ukrainian refugees in his family home since March 2022. He reflects with them on .
MOVES
AJAY BANGA NOMINATED TO WORLD BANK: , and Americans have held the position throughout the 77-year history of the bank. The nomination deadline is March 29, which should lead to Banga’s confirmation by May.
Educated in India, Banga was CEO at Mastercard for 11 years until 2021, and is now , a New York private equity firm.
Elly Schlein, a Swiss-born 37-year-old radical candidate to take over Italy’s traditionally center-left Democratic Party, has won the party’s open primary in a . The favorite was Stefano Bonaccini, governor of Emilia-Romagna.
Ya-Ting Liu has been appointed as — part of a $375 million effort to improve public spaces in the city.
BRAIN FOOD
, by Miles Yu for Hudson Institute.
By Matthew Kaminski
The NATO weapons challenge: Francis Tusa, editor of Defence Analysis, says NATO’s European members probably have for the early stages of a war in Europe.
Thanks to editor Heidi Vogt, Sue Allan and producer Sophie Gardner.
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