With Texas politics receiving national attention – relentless ad blitzes, a constant stream of online reels and ceaseless news cycles – many El Pasoans may be heading to the polls knowing more about state races than the campaigns of their local politicians.
Driven by record political advertising spending, there’s high interest in the contests for Texas governor, U.S. Senate, and U.S. House. But voters will also decide contests for three state House seats, El Paso County judge, two county commissioners and four City Council seats, among dozens of other choices on the ballot.
So far, early voting numbers are surpassing previous records in El Paso and across the state. That means city and county races might be decided by voters with only a casual knowledge of local issues and candidates, said Carlos Sierra, an independent political consultant.
“I don’t think enough voters who are going to turn out pay attention to those issues,” Sierra said. “If voters are turning up for Talarico and Hinojosa, then with the other local candidates, they’re just going to vote for either name ID or a sign they saw. Some obviously know the issues and know their council members, but I don’t think most do.”
Early voting runs through Oct. 30, and the midterm election is Nov. 3.
At press time Friday, after four days of early voting, 62,709 ballots had been cast, according to records from the El Paso County Elections Department. That represents 11.5% of El Paso’s 540,904 registered voters. At the same point in the 2024 general election, 63,941 El Pasoans had cast early votes, representing just over 12% of registered voters.
Political polling suggests that high gas and grocery prices, the ongoing war with Iran and immigration roundups are souring many voters across the country. In El Paso, an anti-incumbent sentiment might also be taking hold, fueled by a series of events over the past year.
Those include tax increases by the city of El Paso, El Paso County and other taxing jurisdictions, utility rate hikes, and the investigation into Marathon Petroleum’s release of pollutants into the air in August. The Deck Plaza freeway project has also faced opposition from residents concerned about its potential cost to taxpayers.
At the county level, news of cost overruns at the El Paso County Sheriff’s Office could also influence voters’ decisions, Sierra said.
“This could make fair play for getting rid of the incumbents,” he said. “That’s where that high turnout can really shake things up.”
El Paso city Rep. Josh Acevedo, who is not on the November ballot, said he has also seen El Pasoans’ anger toward local governments.
“I’ve been talking to different people around the city that are not necessarily in my district, and I do feel like some of those people are having that anti-incumbent feeling,” said Acevedo, who has advocated for terminating the incentive agreement the city approved for Meta’s data center under construction in far Northeast El Paso.
“Right now on a national level, at a state level, and at the local level, people are wanting to be represented by strong voices and they’re really seeing a lot of complacency,” he said.
High turnout among voters who do not closely follow local issues could also mean some skip those races altogether, Acevedo said.
“Unfortunately, some of these council races might be skipped, and they’re so important because the local races are the first line of defense,” he said. “I’m hoping that people will do their homework, look at people’s websites.”
While many races across the state and country are showing thin margins between the two major political parties, El Paso is still firmly a Democratic stronghold and expected to vote that way in the midterms, said Michael Apodaca, chairman of the El Paso Democratic Party.
The more voters who come out, the stronger the voice for Democrats, he said.
“We’re definitely matching the same amount of folks that came out in 2018, which was the highest midterm election that we’ve ever had in El Paso County,” he said. “We feel very confident that El Paso is going to stay Democratic in this cycle and the next cycles because our party represents what this community is about.”
Michael Aboud, chairman of the El Paso Republican Party, criticized local Democratic leadership, saying city and county governments “are spending us into bankruptcy.”
What’s needed, he said, are conservative office holders who will implement stricter fiscal policies.
“El Paso Republican voters need to get out and vote so that we could have a better government in the city of El Paso and county of El Paso,” he said, adding, “and El Paso needs to have a voice in Austin. Currently we have no voice because the Democrats will not speak up.”
Most political observers agree that El Paso will elect primarily Democratic leadership. But Texas, with polls suggesting razor-thin margins in statewide races, is considered by many to be a toss-up.
“It’s going to be closer than people think,” said Sierra, who believes super PAC money from MAGA Inc. and Elon Musk – who has donated more than $276 million to Republicans – will make the difference for the Texas GOP.
Sierra is also hesitant to put too much weight on polling that attempts to predict how Republicans will vote.
“A lot of Republicans are known for not answering polls and not trusting them,” he said.
The Texas political landscape has changed during the past year. Even the Texas congressional redistricting pushed last year by President Trump and Gov. Greg Abbott is “really not helping Republicans at this point,” Sierra said.
The intended strategy was to redraw boundaries between neighboring Republican and Democrat districts to favor the GOP. But as Democrats become more competitive across the state, even in these split districts, the redistricting effort could backfire on Republicans, Sierra said.
The rest of the country is watching Texas because it’s one of a handful of key states that can determine the nation’s balance of political power, he said.
“Texas was never in anybody’s plan to be a win for the Democrats, so that would be just a huge upset. It would change things, especially for the presidential election in two years,” Sierra said. “If Democrats start putting Texas in play, that’s like Democrats losing California or New York. That would change the entire electoral map for presidential politics.”
For election information, including voting center locations, visit the El Paso County Elections Department website.