The Texas Department of Insurance said Thursday that home and auto insurance rates are "trending down for many Texans."
According to the agency's news release, most homeowners insurance companies that filed rate changes since July 1 proposed decreases, "affecting about 700,000 Texas policyholders." Filed homeowners rate changes over the past 90 days "averaged a 4.3% decrease," the release said. For auto insurance, TDI said companies filed rate decreases affecting 4.4 million policyholders.
"Lower rate filings are an encouraging sign for Texas consumers," Insurance Commissioner Amanda Crawford said in the release.
The cuts are real. But a 13 Investigates review of state records found they are only part of the story.
TDI confirmed to 13 Investigates that the 4.3% figure is a simple average of every company's filing, so a small insurer counts the same as the largest.
"The average isn't weighted by premium volume or number of policyholders," TDI spokesperson Mistie Hinote said in a statement. "Individual company trends will vary."
The release also did not mention TDI's average auto filing rate. Asked by 13 Investigates, Hinote said auto insurers "on average, filed for a 0.6% increase in insurance rates in the last 90 days."
And while the release counted policyholders getting cuts, it did not say how many are getting increases.
State Farm Lloyds, Texas's largest homeowners insurer, filed a 4% statewide homeowners rate increase on July 29, according to its filing with TDI.
In that filing, State Farm estimates how the change would affect each of its roughly 987,000 Texas homeowners policies: 751,000 would see increases; 234,000 would see decreases. More than 135,000 would rise 10% or more and nearly 1,800 would rise more than 25%.
By State Farm's own estimate, it will raise rates on more homeowners policies than the 700,000 policyholders TDI said are getting cuts across all companies.
The filing notes the estimates do not include the effects of inflation coverage. The increase is scheduled to take effect for renewing policies Nov. 1.
The 4% is less than State Farm's own analysis supported. Its filing memo says the data showed a need for 10.9%.
In the Houston area, State Farm's filing shows Harris County rates increasing by an average of 3.6%, Fort Bend County 5.3%, and Montgomery County 5.8%.
TDI has not finished reviewing the filing. In a written objection that is part of the public record, regulators asked State Farm to explain its higher rate need "given assumed favorable industry and company results in 2025... and lowering reinsurance costs."
State Farm responded that "many things go into an indication outside of reinsurance costs." It cited poor liability loss experience, severe storms in Texas, and rising insured home values, which it said put "upward pressure" on rates "despite favorable results in 2025."
TDI's statement to 13 Investigates echoed that point about 2025.
"Insurance companies saw fewer losses than usual in 2025," Hinote said. She said Crawford has "encouraged insurance companies to look at their data to determine if they can support and adopt lower rates."
State Farm's Texas homeowners business recorded a net underwriting profit of about $541 million in 2025, according to TDI's annual market report.
Other insurers are raising rates too, according to TDI filing data.
Since July 1, insurers filed 26 homeowners rate decreases and five increases. Besides State Farm, Amica Mutual filed a 4% increase, and AIG Property Casualty filed a 15.2% increase. Both are much smaller Texas homeowners insurers than State Farm.
More auto filings increased than decreased: 25 increases and 15 decreases, though about half the increases came from one company that files separately for many small programs. Two Allstate companies, which together wrote about $1.3 billion in Texas auto premiums last year according to TDI financial data, filed increases of 6.9% and 5.5%. Both are scheduled for renewing policies starting Oct. 15.
By contrast, State Farm filed a 0.5% auto rate decrease, effective Nov. 25.
The relief follows a sharp run-up. TDI's weighted average homeowners rate change was 10.8% in 2022, 21.1% in 2023 and 18.7% in 2024, before moderating to 4.3% in 2025.
"After three years of double-digit rate increases, the average weighted rate increase statewide in 2025 was 4.3%," Hinote said. For auto, she said average rates rose less than 1% in 2025, with similar trends in 2026.
The average premium per homeowners policy written in Texas rose from about $1,500 in 2020 to about $2,460 in 2025, roughly 63%, according to an ABC13 analysis of TDI's 2025 and 2021 annual reports.