ANALYSIS
What is it between Presidents Trump and Putin?
Yesterday, the 47th President of the United States declared a truce between Ukraine and Russia.
“Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine,” Mr Trump posted on Truth Social.
“Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!”
Ukraine’s 6th President, Volodymyr Zelensky, responded, saying it was “news to me”.
“But if Russians agree to an energy ceasefire, Ukraine will agree,” he added.
It also appears to be news to Russia’s 4th (now life) President, Vladimir Putin. His forces continue to strike energy infrastructure across Ukraine.
Then there’s Mr Trump’s own ruling Republican Party.
Several members of Congress have responded with outrage.
“Let’s be honest. Trump is and always has been weak on Putin,” outgoing Republican Senator for Nebraska Don Bacon stated on social
“We need a President who is up to the task of leading the Free World.”
Several Republican Senators on Capitol Hill’s powerful Foreign Affairs committee also weighed in on the dispute.
“The United States should not provide Putin with a financial lifeline while Russia continues to kill Ukrainian civilians. The Administration must immediately reverse course,” a statement from four Republican and two Democrat senators reads.
The embattled US President desperately needs success.
He heads into crucial national midterm elections with record-low polling and soaring cost-of-living concerns.
His proclaimed ceasefire followed a sanction-busting announcement on Saturday that he would buy 4.8 million tons of cut-price diesel directly from Moscow.
The intention is to shore up supplies and reduce fuel costs among his core constituents.
Declare first. Deal later
Mr Trump explicitly blamed Mr Zelensky for the US diesel shortage over the weekend.
He didn’t acknowledge Ukraine as being the surprisingly successful defender against a military invasion by Moscow.
His own failed attacks with Israel on Iran and its subsequent blocking of the Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb Strait access points for Middle Eastern oil didn’t rate a mention.
And it’s not the first time the President has made a unilateral ceasefire declaration on behalf of others.
“Mr Zelenskyy has to do one thing. He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia,” Mr Trump told reporters during his September visit to Ireland.
“Let him go after targets but not diesel fuel, because he’s causing a shortage.”
A few days later, on September 14, came the announcement of a ceasefire nobody was expecting.
“Ukraine has agreed not to hit Russian Energy targets. Russia has agreed to do, likewise! The World’s Diesel price rise is mostly caused by the Russia/Ukraine War, not Iran.”
Kyiv and Moscow seemed unaware of the agreement.
“If our partners are ready to ensure that Russia genuinely refrains from striking our electricity system, other energy facilities, critical infrastructure, and food supply routes, then, of course, we are ready to ensure a corresponding halt to our strikes,” President Zelenskyy said at the time.
“Ukraine is not convinced that Russia is willing to abide by any agreement.”
He was right.
The relentless bombing of power stations and energy infrastructure continued, uninterrupted.
Nothing’s changed since.
Moscow has reportedly bombed another power plant shortly after Mr Trump’s latest peace declaration.
Mr Zelensky expects no letup in the attacks.
“Unfortunately, Ukrainian skies have been infested with Russian ‘shaheds’ all day today,” he said in an address this morning.
“There have been glide bomb strikes and strikes on our energy infrastructure too. A power plant in Kharkiv was attacked this evening.”
‘Greatest priority’
The US Congress banned all Russian energy imports in 2022. And it passed legislation last month ordering the Trump Administration to impose substantial new tariffs on any nation importing oil and gas from Moscow.
The move was designed to punish those indirectly supporting President Putin’s war efforts. But Mr Trump threw it all into disarray with his Saturday diesel-purchase deal.
“Diesel Prices for Americans and, indeed, the World, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST,” he declared on social media.
Diesel cost $US6.28 per gallon ($2.38 per litre) at the weekend. That’s up from $UA3.67 a gallon ($A1.39 per litre) a year ago.
“Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority,” he added.
Mr Trump needs to win back their favour.
A Pew Research Centre survey released last week reports that 74 per cent of US adults express concern about energy prices.
That’s up from 43 per cent in January.
US oil reserves are reported to be largely depleted after being released to keep fuel prices down during the first eight months of the Iran war. Mr Trump needs to find cheap fuel elsewhere to keep his core MAGA constituents happy.
Mr Zelensky was unimpressed.
He responded on Saturday by calling the deal “weak”, warning it would give Mr Putin “millions, billions” in revenue to pursue his war “even more aggressively”.
Members of the US Congress agree.
They’re also worried about Presidential subservience to Congress, as detailed in the US Constitution.
“Congress was clear: the US should not import oil from Russia until it ends its aggression against Ukraine and ceases threats against our NATO Allies,” the six senators wrote in their statement.
“President Trump’s decision to allow Russian diesel imports to the US runs directly counter to that law.”
‘Great Man’ politics
Mr Trump is convinced Mr Zelensky is the problem.
Not President Putin. Not Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. Not Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Not himself.
“I suggest they get a new leader who can make a deal because he could have made many deals and for some reason he never does,” Mr Trump complained outside the White House on Saturday.
“And let me go a step further. If I were President, you wouldn’t have ever had that war. That war would have never started.”
President Putin started that war.
And, for Mr Zelensky, accepting his offers means surrender.
President Putin has repeatedly demanded all of Ukraine’s eastern provinces and its complete demilitarisation. He also insists Russian be made Ukraine’s official language, and Russian Orthodoxy the national religion.
It’s a steep price to pay for Mr Trump’s success in the US midterm elections.
Senator Bacon, following a trend among outgoing Republican officials to bravely speak their mind, called Mr Trump’s behaviour “disgusting”.
“It must really hurt seeing polls showing Americans have higher favourability towards Zelensky than they have Trump. You should honestly ask yourself why,” he said.
Meanwhile, Mr Zelensky is attempting to navigate the surprise ceasefire announcement without upsetting the mercurial US President.
“There was a statement from the president of the United States that an energy ceasefire has been secured,” he said yesterday, adding he was yet to see its details.
“This is good news for everyone – and it is important that it become reality.”
Ukrainian MP Oleksandr Merezhko was less diplomatic.
“I’m sitting in a dark apartment when there is no power, where there is no water,” he told US media this morning.
“We were outraged, honestly speaking, by this so-called diesel deal between President Trump and Putin. It’s taken as a betrayal because we don’t understand what’s going on.
“And if our closest friend, the United States, is given some support or given money to the Russian war machine, it’s tantamount to helping Putin to kill us.”
Republican revolt
Republican Representative for Pennsylvania Brian Fitzpatrick says he will introduce a bill to Congress demanding the deal be overturned.
“Russia illegally invaded Ukraine. Russia is squarely to blame,” Mr Fitzpatrick states.
“We will be introducing bipartisan legislation to block any and all purchases of Russian oil … It will be forced to the Floor via discharge, and it will pass overwhelmingly.”
He has dubbed the Bill the “Ronald Reagan Peace Through Strength Act”. But he will have to wait until after the November elections before Congress can address the matter.
Senator Bacon says he will second the act. He won’t be there for the vote.
Then South Carolina Republican Senator Thomas Tillis took to US media to voice his opposition.
“I’m not the only Republican concerned with this,” he said in a weekend interview.
“Look, this has deadly consequences. Giving Vladimir Putin any sense that we’re going to put our foot on the brakes – versus putting our foot on the accelerator to ending this war and ensuring peace in Europe – we’ve got to go back.
“And I do believe there’s a legitimate case for saying the president’s not following the law.”
He emphasised Russia as the aggressor. Not the aggrieved.
“Russia is the one who can end this war by backing out of a territory they occupied,” he insisted.
Ukraine has only one oil refinery. Multiple strikes over the course of the almost five-year war have largely put it out of action. But Ukraine’s heat and electricity-generating infrastructure has once again become a primary target as the Northern Hemisphere moves toward winter.
Russia has a vast national network for processing and distributing oil and gas. Ukraine has reportedly launched an average of three attacks per month on this infrastructure in and around Moscow so far this year.
Mr Trump’s voters don’t like high fuel costs.
That makes Mr Zelensky a problem.
And the easiest available target.
“Trump is really mad. He feels Zelensky is taking the US for granted,” an unnamed White House official told Axios this morning.
“We import diesel and gas. What we need is for the Russians to stop attacking our electricity grid,” a Ukrainian official retorted.
“The Russians are thinking about it,” the White House official replied.
“We will know soon if they are ready.”