The Cardinals return from their bye week looking for a third straight victory. Stanford has won four games at home but hasn’t won on the road in more than two years. Louisville would prefer to keep it that way.
LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB+WAVE) — Stanford has played eight football games this season. Four times, the Cardinal have looked like a respectable Atlantic Coast Conference football team.
The other four times, they’ve looked like they never should have gotten off the airplane. And on three of those occasions, they had to get on one.
Stanford is 4-1 at home, with victories over Georgia Tech and NC State. On the road, it’s 0-3, having been outscored 150-17. The Cardinal haven’t won a road game since beating Syracuse in September 2024, a stretch of 14 consecutive losses.
Saturday, they visit Louisville.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, have their own consistency problem to sort out.
Louisville (4-3, 3-2 ACC) returns from its only bye week of the season riding a two-game winning streak, having beaten Florida State and Syracuse. The offense leads the nation in plays of 40 yards or longer. Quarterback Lincoln Kienholz has run for 10 touchdowns. Defensive back Kaleb Beasley is tied for the national lead in interceptions.
And Jeff Brohm is still looking for his team to play four good quarters of football.
“We haven’t really done that,” Brohm said this week. “It’s not super easy to do. The other team’s good, too. They got good players, good coaches. But we want to play clean, solid football.”
Stanford (4-4, 2-3) arrives with some momentum of its own, having beaten NC State 31-28 last Friday. That’s the same NC State team that handed Louisville one of its three losses.
And the last time these teams met, Louisville led by 14 points in the fourth quarter before giving up 17 points in the final seven minutes and losing on a field goal as time expired.
The Cardinals are favored by more than three touchdowns Saturday. They’ve earned that respect with an offense capable of scoring from practically anywhere.
But they’ve also spent seven games demonstrating that there’s a considerable difference between being capable of winning comfortably and actually doing it.
Saturday would be a good time to close that gap.
How to Watch
Who: Stanford (4-4, 2-3 ACC) at Louisville (4-3, 3-2 ACC)
When: Saturday, Oct. 31, 3:15 p.m. ET
Where: L&N Stadium, Louisville, Ky.
TV: ACC Network. Announcers: Jorge Sedano, Rodney McLeod Jr. and Annabelle Hasselbeck
Radio: 93.9 The Ville / 970 WGTK — Paul Rogers, Craig Swabek and Jody Demling
Favorite: Louisville by 22.5
Over/under: 60.5
Series: Stanford leads 1-0, winning 38-35 in Palo Alto in 2024.
Homecoming: Saturday marks Louisville’s 100th Homecoming game. The Cardinals are 62-37 in the previous 99.
What to Watch
1. Can Louisville finally put together four quarters?
Brohm has been talking about consistency since before the season began. Seven games later, he’s still talking about it.
Louisville’s offense has been spectacular in stretches and frustrating in others. The defense has struggled with breakdowns, particularly against the pass, and the Cardinals have made enough mistakes to turn three winnable games into losses.
There has been progress.
Since Brohm turned offensive play-calling over to his brother Brian and became more involved in defensive oversight, Louisville has won twice.
The Cardinals were outstanding for much of their 44-20 victory over Florida State. Against Syracuse, they surrendered some big plays in the first half before tightening up defensively and winning 34-26.
Brohm said the staff has changed its practice approach, emphasizing quality repetitions and more competition between the first-team offense and defense.
“We’ve changed the way we practice the last couple weeks,” he said. “I just think every little detail matters now.”
He also identified two specific offensive problems: slow starts and inconsistent fourth-quarter execution.
Those are worth watching Saturday.
Louisville has scored 42.8 points per game at home this season. Against a Stanford defense that ranks last in the ACC in points allowed, the Cardinals should have opportunities.
The question is whether they can take advantage of them without the mistakes and lapses that have repeatedly complicated their season.
2. Which Stanford team gets off the airplane?
Stanford’s home-road statistics are almost difficult to believe.
The Cardinal are 4-1 in Palo Alto. They’ve beaten Georgia Tech and NC State, two teams that have given ACC opponents plenty of trouble.
Away from home, they’ve lost to Duke, Wake Forest and Notre Dame by a combined 150-17. That’s an average score of 50-6. Stanford’s 14-game road losing streak is the longest active streak in major college football.
But there are reasons not to dismiss the Cardinal entirely.
Quarterback Davis Warren, a transfer from Michigan, ranks among the ACC’s leading passers. He’s thrown for at least 300 yards three times this season.
Running back Micah Ford has rushed for 329 yards in Stanford’s last two games, the most by any FBS player during that span. Against NC State, he had 150 yards rushing and 208 from scrimmage.
Stanford has won two straight, and its offense has improved considerably.
In their four victories, the Cardinal have averaged 34 points and 485.5 yards. In their four losses, those numbers fall to 5.8 points and 233.8 yards.
There’s not much middle ground. If Stanford brings its home offense to Louisville, this could be interesting. If it brings its road offense, it might have trouble keeping up.
3. How much will Louisville miss Lawayne McCoy?
The Cardinals will be without their leading receiver and one of the nation’s most dangerous big-play threats.
McCoy, a junior transfer from Florida State, leads Louisville with 513 receiving yards and four touchdown catches on just 25 receptions. He averages 20.5 yards per catch. Eight of his receptions have gained at least 25 yards, and 14 have gone for 15 or more.
In other words, more than half the time McCoy catches a football, Louisville moves the chains at least 15 yards.
His four touchdown receptions have covered 54, 61, 33 and 33 yards. In Louisville’s most recent game, a 34-26 victory at Syracuse, he caught five passes for 93 yards, including a 40-yarder.
He isn’t the only offensive absence. Tight ends Travis Egan and Hamilton Atkins are out, as are offensive tackle Bryten Close and offensive linemen James Glover-Tyson and Anwar O’Neal. Offensive lineman Gradey Anthony is questionable.
But McCoy is the player whose absence could change how Stanford defends Louisville.
The Cardinals have demonstrated that their big plays can come from almost anywhere. Six different players have scored touchdowns of 50 yards or longer this season. Louisville has 11 such touchdowns, with at least one in every game.
Tre Richardson leads the team with 30 receptions. TreyShun Hurry has 28 catches for 337 yards, and tight end Jaleel Skinner has added 275 receiving yards and three touchdowns.
And Louisville’s running game has become one of the nation’s best.
The Cardinals average 5.9 yards per carry, fourth nationally, and have already scored 25 rushing touchdowns, matching their entire total from last season.
Kienholz has 10 of those touchdowns. Among Louisville quarterbacks, only Lamar Jackson and Malik Cunningham have run for more in a season. His 82-yard touchdown run against Syracuse was the longest by a quarterback in school history.
He has played through injuries, and he said the bye week helped.
“The more that I get in there, the better I feel,” he said. “Just maximizing my time throughout the week to get in there and make sure my body’s ready for Saturday is super important.”
McCoy’s absence removes one dangerous option. It doesn’t leave Louisville short of alternatives.
4. Can Louisville’s defense handle Stanford’s improving offense?
Warren is coming off one of his best performances.
Against NC State, he threw for 234 yards and three touchdowns in the first half alone. Stanford finished with a 300-yard passer, a 100-yard rusher and a 100-yard receiver in the same game for the first time since 2015.
That’s the kind of balance that can cause problems for Louisville.
The Cardinals have struggled in pass coverage throughout the season, and Brohm was particularly unhappy with several breakdowns against Syracuse. He cited two deep passes surrendered in man coverage and another on third-and-17 while Louisville was in Cover 2.
Those weren’t sophisticated offensive plays. They were mistakes Louisville shouldn’t have made.
The second half was better. Louisville forced turnovers, got stops and protected its lead.
One reason has been Beasley.
The Tennessee transfer has five interceptions in his last five games, tied for the national lead. After picking off two passes against SMU, he has intercepted one in each of his last three games. He had none in two seasons with the Volunteers.
He’s the first Louisville player to intercept five passes in a season since Jaire Alexander in 2016.
Stanford has been careful with the football. Warren is among a small group of FBS quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts and no more than two interceptions.
Louisville has one of the nation’s most productive ballhawks. Stanford has a quarterback who rarely gives the football away.
Something may have to give.
Complicating matters for both teams is a lengthy injury report, particularly in the secondary.
Louisville defensive back Antonio Watts is out, and defensive backs Jaydin Broadnax and Kris Brunson are questionable. Up front, defensive linemen Daylen Russell and Sam Dawson are out, and Jerod Smith II is probable.
Stanford is thinner still in the back. The Cardinal will be without cornerbacks Brandon Nicholson, Breylan Thompson and Sam Neely III, defensive back Zaiden McDonald, and linebackers Matt Rose and Preston Jernegan.
Stanford’s depleted secondary could make McCoy’s absence a little easier for Louisville to overcome.
From the Game Notes
The explosive Cardinals: Louisville leads the nation in plays of 40, 50 and 60 yards or longer. The Cardinals have 52 plays of at least 20 yards, second nationally behind West Virginia, which has played one more game.
A rushing revival: Louisville averages 215 rushing yards per game, which would be its highest average since Lamar Jackson’s final season in 2017.
The bye-week advantage: Louisville is 4-1 following a bye under Brohm. His career record following bye weeks is 10-6.
Stanford Famous Alum: John Steinbeck. The Nobel Prize-winning author of The Grapes of Wrath, Of Mice and Men and East of Eden attended Stanford from 1919 to 1925, though he left without graduating.
Steinbeck also has a Louisville connection. In 1956, he came to Churchill Downs to cover the Kentucky Derby for The Courier-Journal. Needles won that afternoon, but the race made an impression on the novelist.
He described it as one of the most beautiful, violent and satisfying experiences of his life. Steinbeck also wrote that during Derby Week, Louisville was the capital of the world.
Crawford’s Pick
Louisville 41, Stanford 17
On paper, this is the kind of game Louisville ought to win comfortably.
Stanford’s road performances have been dreadful, and Louisville has an offense capable of turning a competitive game into a blowout in a matter of minutes.
But I also understand why Brohm isn’t taking anything for granted.
Stanford beat NC State last week. Louisville didn’t. And the Cardinals haven’t exactly established a reputation for making things easy on themselves.
Still, this is a favorable matchup.
Louisville should be able to run the football against Stanford, even without McCoy stretching the defense. Kienholz presents problems with his mobility, and Isaac Brown has the speed to turn a small opening into a touchdown.
The biggest question is whether Louisville’s defense can avoid the breakdowns that have allowed opponents to stay in games. The Cardinals have spent much of this season making games more difficult than they needed to be. I think Saturday will be an exception.