Kickoff | Louisville vs. Florida State: How to watch, what to watch

The Cardinals have lost three games by a total of nine points. The Seminoles are coming off their most dominant performance of the season. Friday night could tell us plenty about where both teams are headed.

Louisville quarterback Lincoln Kienholz hands off to Isaac Brown in the first half of the Cardinals' season-opening loss to Ole Miss in Nashville, Tenn. (Eric Crawford)

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WDRB+WAVE) — Five games into the college football season, Louisville and Florida State are looking at the same Friday night football game from very different directions.

Florida State is beginning to look like Florida State again. Louisville is trying to figure out what happened to Louisville.

The Seminoles arrive at L&N Stadium fresh off a 38-7 dismantling of Virginia, a performance that included 10 sacks, five rushing touchdowns by quarterback Ashton Daniels and the kind of defensive dominance that used to be a Florida State trademark.

Louisville arrives with three losses by three points apiece, a 2-3 record and the uncomfortable realization that a season built around ACC championship ambitions has become a fight to keep even ambitions of being in contention from disappearing entirely.

The Cardinals aren’t getting blown out. They’re getting beaten at the finish line.

They have lost to Ole Miss, Wake Forest and NC State by a combined nine points. Seven of their last eight losses, dating to 2024, have come by three points or fewer. At some point, close stops being comforting.

“We have not been able to win close games here, and we’ve got to find a way to get over the hump and win those close games,” Louisville coach Jeff Brohm said Monday.

The Cardinals still have plenty of football to play. Their offense is averaging 486 yards and 38.6 points per game. They have explosive playmakers, a talented quarterback and enough quality to make a run through the second half of the schedule.

But the margin for error is gone. And the opponent coming to town suddenly looks like a team that has found something. Florida State receiver Micahi Danzy said the Virginia game “felt like old Florida State being dominant on just both sides of the ball.”

Maybe it was. Or maybe the Seminoles simply had one terrific afternoon.

Friday offers another test.

For Florida State, the question is whether the turnaround is real. For Louisville, the question is whether it can start one of its own.

How to Watch

Who: Florida State (3-2, 1-1 ACC) at Louisville (2-3, 1-2 ACC)

When: Friday, Oct. 9, 7 p.m. ET

Where: L&N Stadium, Louisville, Ky.

TV: ESPN. Announcers: Mike Monaco, Jordan Rodgers and Dana Boyle

Radio: 93.9 The Ville / 970 WGTK — Paul Rogers, Craig Swabek and Jody Demling

SiriusXM: Channel 258 (Florida State broadcast)

Favorite: Louisville by 3.5

Over/under: 59.5

Florida State leads the all-time series 18-6, including a 7-3 record in Louisville. The Seminoles have won the past two meetings, including a 16-6 victory in the 2023 ACC Championship Game.

What to Watch

1. Can Louisville’s defense stop Ashton Daniels?

This is not the quarterback Louisville’s struggling defense would have ordered for a get-well game.

Daniels ran for five touchdowns against Virginia, setting a Florida State record and tying the ACC record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback. He finished with 136 rushing yards, including an 81-yard touchdown run, and threw for another 183.

And he isn’t simply a runner. Against Alabama, Daniels threw for 377 yards on just 17 completions. He also accounted for two passing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns and a two-point conversion.

Brohm knows the problem. Louisville faced Daniels when he played at Stanford, and the quarterback hurt the Cardinals through the air.

“Definitely, though, his strength is running the ball,” Brohm said. “We got to contain him, so that’ll be very important that we stop the run and contain the quarterback in the running game.”

But there’s the catch. Louisville has repeatedly allowed receivers to run free in its secondary. Loading up to stop Daniels on the ground could leave the Cardinals vulnerable to the explosive passing plays that have already cost them dearly.

Brohm acknowledged this week that the problem involves both execution and scheme. He wants fewer adjustments, clearer communication and defenders who know exactly where they are supposed to be.

Defensive lineman Demeco Kennedy sees a responsibility up front.

“I feel like half those big plays don’t happen if we get more pressure,” Kennedy said.

The Cardinals have spent much of the season searching for defensive answers.

Daniels is about to ask some difficult questions.

2. Was Florida State’s defensive performance a breakthrough or a one-week wonder?

Ten sacks. Thirty-seven rushing yards allowed on 40 carries. Just 205 total yards surrendered on 72 plays.

Those aren’t just good defensive numbers. They’re extraordinary ones, particularly against an ACC opponent.

Florida State held Virginia to 2.85 yards per play, stopped the Cavaliers on all four fourth-down attempts and allowed just seven points. The Seminoles have surrendered only 14 points over their past two games.

Defensive coordinator Tony White said the difference wasn’t some magic adjustment. It was 11 players doing their jobs. The pass coverage gave the rush time to arrive. The rush made the coverage better. Players communicated. Assignments were carried out.

Now consider the opponent.

Louisville’s offense leads the nation with eight touchdowns of 50 yards or longer and is tied for the national lead with 37 plays of at least 20 yards.

Lincoln Kienholz can run and throw. Isaac Brown has the speed to turn an ordinary carry into a touchdown. Louisville has multiple receivers capable of getting behind a defense.

Florida State coach Mike Norvell knows the challenge.

“It’s going to be a heck of a matchup,” he said, praising Brohm’s ability to attack defenses and use his personnel.

Louisville’s offense has been productive enough to win games. Florida State’s defense suddenly looks good enough to take those opportunities away.

Something has to give.

3. Can Louisville finally finish a football game?

This is becoming the defining question of the Cardinals’ season. Against Ole Miss, Louisville rallied from a slow start but lost on a last-second field goal. Against Wake Forest, it had opportunities to tie or win before a late field-goal attempt was blocked. Against NC State, the Cardinals piled up 485 yards, including 231 rushing, but lost three fumbles that led to 18 Wolfpack points.

The last two came on promising fourth-quarter possessions.

Louisville doesn’t have an offense that can’t move the ball. It has an offense that hasn’t consistently turned those yards into winning plays when it matters most.

Brohm acknowledged Monday that the fourth quarter has become a problem.

“We have to be more consistent in scoring in the fourth quarter,” he said.

The defense hasn’t been able to provide enough late stops, either.

And then there’s the emotional component.

How many times can a team come within a play of winning, lose, and come back believing that next time will be different?

Kennedy said the Cardinals can’t spend their days thinking about the final record or what might have been.

“Close isn’t good enough,” he said.

Friday night, Louisville has to make that more than a slogan.

4. Can Louisville protect the ball — and Lincoln Kienholz?

Louisville’s offensive line faces one of its stiffest tests of the season.

Florida State ranks among the national leaders in sacks, and defensive coordinator Tony White showed against Virginia that he’s willing to bring pressure with a five-man front and trust his defensive backs in man coverage.

That creates a problem for any offense.

Louisville has enough explosive weapons to punish aggressive defenses, but those plays require time to develop. Kienholz also has to avoid the costly turnovers that helped sink the Cardinals in Raleigh.

The injury report provides some encouragement. Kienholz is probable after playing through an ankle injury at NC State. Offensive linemen Anwar O’Neal also is listed as probable, though Cason Henry is questionable.

Koen Entringer, whose absence has hurt Louisville’s defensive secondary, is listed as probable as well.

The running back situation is less certain.

Keyjuan Brown is questionable after losing two fumbles at NC State. Running backs coach Chris Barclay said Brown had been dealing with injuries and missing practice time, but emphasized that one bad game should not define his season.

“I don’t want one bad day to ruin a career,” Barclay said.

Isaac Brown, meanwhile, is coming off a 125-yard rushing performance, his 12th career 100-yard game.

Louisville has the offensive personnel to challenge Florida State.

Keeping them healthy, keeping Kienholz upright and keeping possession of the football will be essential.

From the Game Notes

Defensive distress: Louisville is allowing 423 yards per game, ranking No. 125 among 138 FBS teams and fourth-worst in the Power 4. The Cardinals rank No. 130 in passing defense and No. 113 in scoring defense.

Kienholz delivers: Lincoln Kienholz ranks 15th nationally in passing efficiency (173.2), completing 69.2% of his passes with nine touchdowns and one interception. He also leads Louisville with six rushing touchdowns and is tied for the national lead in completions of 50-plus yards (five) and 60-plus yards (four).

Red-zone frustrations: Louisville has scored on 15 of 18 red-zone trips (83.3%), ranking 90th nationally. Its touchdown rate of 66.7% ranks 56th. Florida State, by comparison, is a perfect 21-for-21 on red-zone scoring opportunities, with 17 touchdowns.

Fourth-quarter drought: Louisville has managed just seven fourth-quarter points in its past two games, both three-point losses. The Cardinals have scored 48 fourth-quarter points for the season, including 14 against Ole Miss.

Beasley gets the ball: Louisville defensive back Kaleb Beasley is tied for second nationally with three interceptions, including two against SMU. The Tennessee transfer has three of the Cardinals’ four interceptions this season.

Penalty problems: Louisville ranks No. 130 nationally in penalty yards per game (82.4). The Cardinals have been penalized 39 times for 412 yards through five games.

Turnover toll: Louisville has scored just seven points off turnovers this season while surrendering 25. The 18-point difference is twice the combined margin of its three losses.

Ten is plenty: Florida State’s 10 sacks against Virginia were its most in a game since 1997 and one shy of the school record.

A kicking certainty: Florida State kicker Gabe Panikowski has made all 21 field-goal attempts of his college career, including six this season.

FSU Famous Alum: Lee Corso. Before he became one of college football’s most recognizable television personalities, Lee Corso played football at Florida State, where he was a roommate of Burt Reynolds. And Louisville fans have a special connection to him. Corso coached the Cardinals from 1969 through 1972, compiling a 28-11-3 record and leading Louisville to its first bowl appearance, the 1970 Pasadena Bowl. He later became a fixture on ESPN’s College GameDay, where his headgear selections became one of the sport’s most enduring traditions.

Kirk Herbstreit, his longtime sidekick on ESPN, caught up with him before this season. He said Corso is fighting some physical ailments that come along with being 91 years old, but that he remains engaged with college football.“We’d all be lucky to have such cognitive thinking at 91,” Herbstreit said. “His eyes are sharp. He’s dialed in. He’s just going through some stuff that makes it tough on him. … But he knows about teams. He knows about players. He’s got opinions. I just sat there and listened and loved hearing him talk about that. He’s great. I told him that everybody loves him, everybody misses him. He feels that love.”

Crawford’s Pick

Louisville 34, Florida State 31

I keep coming back to the same thing about Louisville. The Cardinals aren’t a bad football team. But they’re doing an awfully good imitation of one when the game is on the line.

They can move the ball. They have dangerous players. They’ve been competitive against quality opponents. What they haven’t done is put everything together long enough to win some games they should have won.

Florida State is a concern, to put it mildly. Daniels is exactly the kind of quarterback who can make Louisville’s defensive problems worse. And 10 sacks in one game suggest the Seminoles may have found something on that side of the ball.

But I don’t think Louisville is finished. Brohm, for all the struggles with success, is hard to beat in big games when his team’s back is to a wall. Kienholz makes enough plays and the Cardinals finally get through a close game without finding a way to lose it.

It won’t be comfortable. Nothing about this Louisville season has been.

But I’m picking the Cardinals to stop the slide.

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Kickoff | Louisville vs. Florida State: How to watch, what to watch