New forecasts from Westpac suggest that relief at the petrol could be short-lived when it comes to mortages

Australians are being handed a small win at the petrol pump but it risks being quickly eclipsed by a far larger hit to mortgage repayments.

In a rare national address, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said the government was moving to ease immediate cost-of-living pressure, telling Australians: "We're making fuel cheaper today because we understand that Australians are under serious pressure."

The address comes as the federal government's temporary fuel excise cut comes into effect, shaving the tax from 52.6 cents to 26.3 cents per litre for three months and saving drivers about $19 per tank.

But new forecasts from Westpac suggest that relief could be short-lived, with the bank tipping the Reserve Bank of Australia will deliver three more interest rate hikes this year.

That would take the cash rate to 4.85 per cent, a 17-year high and the most aggressive tightening cycle since the Global Financial Crisis.

The great hip-pocket trade-off

The fuel excise cut offers immediate relief at the bowser, but economists warn it does little to address the underlying inflation problem.

Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis says while the policy may ease short-term pressure, broader inflation dynamics remain stubborn.

Luci Ellis - Chief Economist, Westpac Banking Group (pic Westpac) Credit: View

She said: "Despite the weaker economic outlook and potential undershoot of the inflation target implied by these revised forecasts, we think the RBA will be slow to reverse this policy tightening and risks getting behind the curve in coming years. We push out the date for rate cuts and pencil in four rate cuts, one per quarter in February, May, August and November 2028. We have low conviction about the exact timing."

Meanwhile, Canstar's director of data insights Sally Tindall warns households are effectively caught in a "merry-go-round of money" - saving at the petrol pump, only to hand it back to the banks.

Why rates are still rising

At first glance, the policy clash looks contradictory, why make energy cheaper while the central bank keeps tightening?

The inflation paradox:When government cuts costs like fuel excise, households retain more disposable income. That additional spending can prolong inflationary pressure, something the RBA is actively trying to contain.

Second-round effects:While petrol prices may ease temporarily, broader oil-linked costs - including transport, aviation and manufacturing - remain elevated, embedding "sticky" inflation across the economy.

The target:The RBA aims to keep inflation between 2 and 3 per cent. It is currently tracking towards a peak of around 5.4 per cent - well above target.

What it means for your mortgage

If Westpac's forecast plays out, the impact on borrowers will be immediate and material.

Based on Canstar modelling for a standard 25-year loan:

$600,000 loan: An extra $276/month (new hikes) and an extra $457/month total in 2026

$800,000 loan: An extra $368/month and an extra $609/month total in 2026

$1,000,000 loan: An extra $460/month and an extra $762/month total in 2026

In other words, the $19 saving at the bowser could be quickly overwhelmed by hundreds of dollars in extra monthly repayments.

What to do now

With further rate moves potentially ahead, economists say households may have a narrow window to act.

Move before May: Variable-rate borrowers should consider negotiating now. Dozens of lenders are still advertising rates below 5.75 per cent.

Bank the fuel win: Redirect any savings from cheaper fuel into an offset account to build a buffer against future hikes.

Watch the market shift: Higher rates are already cooling demand in previously resilient suburbs. The coming quarter could be one of the most volatile periods for housing sentiment since the post-GFC adjustment.

Home

Albanese's $19 fuel win being swallowed by a $700 mortgage hit