People near an out of control bushfire in the Otways who have not yet left are being urged to do so by sunset, before extreme heat bears down on Victoria on Tuesday.

Police and SES volunteers have begun doorknocking properties near the Carlisle River fire, south of Colac, but are urging people not to wait for police.

Bushland on fire in the Otways during the weekend.Geelong West Fire Brigade

“The message is to leave today,” Forest Fire Management Victoria said in its latest update just before midday.

“Prepare to evacuate before sunset today. If you choose to stay, emergency services may not be able to help you.”

There are three relief centres for people to evacuate to – two in Colac and one in the Geelong suburb of Grovedale.

People in Lorne and Wye River, affected by flash flooding two weeks ago, are now being urged to monitor changing fire conditions.

The Otways blaze began on January 7, but broke containment lines during Saturday’s extreme fire danger day in the south-west. Smoke from the fire blanketed Melbourne in the early hours of Sunday.

The latest Otways warning comes as Northern Victoria braces for record-breaking temperatures of up to 49 degrees on Tuesday and a week-long heatwave, intensifying the risk of bushfires.

Emergency Management Commissioner Tim Wiebusch said parts of northern Victoria were likely to experience seven consecutive days above 40 degrees.

Smoke from the fires is seen in central Melbourne on Sunday. Arsineh Houspian

“We haven’t seen heatwave conditions like this in Victoria for almost 20 years,” Wiebusch said, referencing the heat before and on Black Saturday in 2009.

The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts that the town of Ouyen, in the state’s far north-west, will reach 49 degrees on Tuesday, which would be a Victorian record.

“Hopetoun and Walpeup are both forecasting 48 degrees on Tuesday, [so] we could potentially see an all-time record for those two locations,” forecaster Diana Eddie said.

She said a cool change was likely to reach the state’s south-west by late Tuesday afternoon, but would not arrive in Melbourne until about 10pm.

Bushland on fire in the Otways during the weekend.Geelong West Fire Brigade

Melbourne is forecast to hit a maximum of 30 degrees on Monday and a top of 44 degrees on Tuesday.

The city was forecast to have cooler maximum temperatures in the mid-20s on Wednesday and Thursday.

The bureau issued heatwave warnings for much of the state from Sunday to Wednesday. The warning was at “extreme” level for the state’s north-east and “severe” across northern Victoria.

Maximum temperatures would be in the high 30s to mid-40s in the northern half of the state during the heatwave, and peak on Tuesday in the 40s “right across” Victoria, the bureau said.

Bushfire smoke shrouding Melbourne CBD on Sunday.Arsineh Houspian

Slightly cooler weather is forecast for Gippsland’s coastal region, where maximum temperatures would reach into the low to mid-30s on Tuesday, the bureau said.

Overnight minimum temperatures were expected to be in the high-teens to mid-20s during the heatwave in the state’s north, and between about 15 and 20 degrees in the south.

“Severe to extreme heatwave conditions will persist for an extended period, peaking on Tuesday and Wednesday before gradually easing over south-western parts from mid-week following a milder southerly change,” the bureau said on Sunday.

“Severe to extreme heatwave conditions are not expected to ease across remaining parts of the state until a cooler change arrives towards the end of next weekend.”

The Carlisle River bushfire on Saturday.Barwon Heads Fire Brigade

Melbourne is forecast to reach a maximum temperature of 32 degrees on Friday, followed by 28 degrees on Saturday and 22 degrees on Sunday.

Air quality alerts for Melbourne, Geelong and surrounds were upgraded shortly after 9am on Sunday, as wind pushed smoke from the Otways across central Victoria.

“The smoke may aggravate existing heart and lung conditions and cause irritated eyes, coughing and wheezing,” warnings read.

Firefighters preparing to battle the Carlisle River bushfire.Carlisle River Fire Brigade

A State Control Centre spokesperson said several strike teams battled the Carlisle River fire on Saturday night and into Sunday, focusing on protecting buildings.

Chief Fire Officer Chris Hardman said buildings might have been lost, but assessors were yet to examine the damage in thick bushland.

“That heating that will be with us on Tuesday will again cause that fire to move, potentially rapidly,” he said.

Hardman also warned that the Walwa fire in the High Country near the NSW border could challenge firefighters for weeks, as it had grown to more than 100,000 hectares.

The Carlisle River bushfire triggered a huge emergency response.Barwon Heads CFA

“As early as later [on Sunday], or certainly [on Monday], we could see that fire escape its containment lines and move to the south,” he said. “Although there are no large communities at risk, this is one to watch in the weeks ahead.”

More than 1000 structures have been damaged by bushfires in Victoria this summer, 289 of them homes.

The Longwood fire devastated parts of central Victoria earlier this month, but it is now contained.

A total fire ban is yet to be declared across Victoria this week.

“It’s very early in the season,” Hardman said. “We’ve had some terrible fires, but it’s not the time to turn our gaze away from the challenges ahead.”

Ambulance Victoria said paramedics responded to 11 cases of children locked in cars as temperatures soared on Saturday.

“Hot cars can kill,” Ambulance Victoria emergency management director Dale Armstrong said.

“Victorians also need to be cautious and take preventative steps to avoid illnesses such as heat stroke, those at most risk, [for example] the elderly, the young, the pregnant and those with medical conditions.”

Heat stroke could be fatal in up to 80 per cent of cases, Armstrong warned.

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Otways communities urged to prepare to evacuate, Victoria to reach 49 degrees tomorrow