New estimates suggest a staggering toll as the war nears its one-year mark.
Ever since the war in Ukraine began, they have been among the most difficult facts to ascertain: the numbers of soldiers killed and wounded on either side. The much-used phrase “fog of war” applies — and in this war, it’s made even murkier by a desire among Russians and Ukrainians alike to obscure the truth about their losses.
U.S. and European officials have offered rare assessments recently of casualties on either side: a staggering 180,000-200,000 Russians dead and wounded; and 100,000 or more Ukrainians in those categories. On Norwegian TV, Gen. Eirik Kristoffersen, Norway’s defense chief, put the estimate of Russian casualties at 180,000 and the Ukrainian toll at roughly 100,000 wounded. Meanwhile, U.S. and other Western officials say the number of Russian troops killed and wounded in Ukraine is “approaching 200,000.”
An already high toll has jumped in the midst of particularly heavy fighting in and around the eastern city of Bakhmut. U.S. officials told the New York Times and Wall Street Journal that the toll in that region alone has occasionally been more than 100 troops killed or injured in a single day on either side.
As these officials and others who follow the war closely have said from the beginning, it is extremely difficult to accurately determine these figures. The sources for their estimates include satellite imagery, intelligence intercepts and on-the-ground media reports. They take in reporting from both governments as well — though again, those are not often the most trustworthy sources.
The U.S. has not offered a public assessment of Russian casualties since November, when the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark A. Milley, said that more than 100,000 troops on each side had been killed and wounded since the war began. More recently, speaking with reporters in Germany last month, Milley said, “I would say it’s significantly well over 100,000 now.”
This much is clear: Both sides — and the Russians in particular — have incurred staggering losses in a war that few thought would last a month, much less a year. To put the figures in perspective, the U.S. toll of dead and wounded in nearly 20 years of war in Afghanistan was just under 25,000.
We offer a comprehensive set of data points on the war in Ukraine below. Grid originally published this document on March 24, the one-month anniversary of the war. We update it every Thursday to provide a fuller picture of the conflict.
Civilians killed: at least 7,000 (probably thousands more)
On June 7, a Ukrainian official said at least 40,000 Ukrainian civilians had been killed or wounded since the war began. The official offered no breakdown of dead versus wounded civilians. The United Nations’ latest estimate of civilians killed is more than 7,000, but it consistently notes the figure is an underestimate, as is its estimate of total casualties — a combination of deaths and injuries — given as more than 18,000. (Updated Feb. 8; source, source, source.)
Ukrainian soldiers killed: at least 13,000
Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, estimated in early December that as many as 13,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed since the war began. In early November, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Mark Milley, estimated that both sides had seen about 100,000 soldiers killed or injured. More recently, on Sunday, Norwegian Chief of Defense Eirik Kristoffersen also estimated the Ukrainian side to have over 100,000 personnel killed or injured. (Updated Jan. 25; source, source.)
Russian soldiers killed: between 5,937 and 134,000
From the early days of the war, casualty counts for Russian soldiers have varied widely — depending on the source. Ukraine raised its estimate of Russian soldiers killed in the conflict to more than 134,000 on Wednesday. These numbers have been updated frequently through the Facebook page for the country’s General Staff of the Armed Forces. In its first update on casualties since March, Russia claimed in late September that there had been 5,937 Russian military deaths. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in April that there had been “significant losses of troops, and it’s a huge tragedy for us.”
A report by Meduza, an independent Russian media outlet, and the Russian branch of the BBC confirmed at least 10,000 dead Russian soldiers as of Dec. 9.
Russia has also suffered a high rate of casualties among senior officers. Thirteen Russian generals have been killed, according to Ukrainian authorities; the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency puts the figure at eight to 10. Grid’s Tom Nagorski and Keating previously reported on the possible explanations for this “inconceivable” toll: poor communications and command-and-control structures within the Russian military. (Updated Feb. 8; source.)
Total displaced Ukrainians: approximately 14 million
There are over 8 million Ukrainian refugees currently reported in other European countries. United Nations’ data indicates over 18 million Ukrainians have crossed the border since the start of the war, but millions have returned home, largely from Poland, as Nikhil Kumar and Kseniia Lisnycha reported. In late October, the International Organization for Migration’s latest survey of internally displaced Ukrainians found more Ukrainians returning home from within Ukraine, but 5.9 million remained displaced within their own country. (Updated Feb. 8; source; source.)
Internally displaced Ukrainians: approximately 5.9 million
An overview of the violence
Global food markets: Wheat prices rose sharply after the invasion but have since fallen back to prewar levels.
