Omar Qureshi

youtu.be/rTjKKD4d9WQ

More on the new x-date of June 5. The Bill market is NOT trading as if June 5 is the x-date. Its yield was 6.79% on Wednesday and is 5.53% now, not that different from the 5.48% yield of the now "before x-date" June 1 Bill. What does this mean? *…

Contrarian theory says that when the large speculators get very extreme (second panel), the market's trend is over and should reverse. But not with interest rates this time. These speculator short extremes should have signaled a reversal weeks ago.…

Wall Street was correct all along. June 1 is NOT the x-date. Crossing now *YELLEN ESTIMATES DEBT-LIMIT MEASURES WILL RUN OUT BY JUNE 5 ---- Also: *TREASURY CASH PILE DROPPED TO $38.8B THURSDAY, LEAST SINCE 2017 *US HAS JUST $67B OF EXTRAORDINARY…

It took four years, but airport traffic finally returned to the summer of 2019 levels. https://t.co/KHu5O5OBii

By the way... Orange is Office REITS Blue is Bank Stocks Orange is Regional Banks Should we play the Sesame Street game, "One of these things looks like the other?" https://t.co/Vkh1poDBFT

The Bill curve from Wednesday's close to now. The drop in June Bill yields the last two days is the hope of a debt limit deal coming imminently. https://t.co/2NrUafI42L

We all know about the tech boom (purple) and the decent year the S&P 500 is having (black), but what is on the opposite end of this? That would be real estate, especially office real estate (orange), that made a new low for the year yesterday.…

The "Bank Walk" continues unabated. Another $47B flowed into money market mutual funds this past week. --- Before SVB's failure on March 10, $47B/week would have been huge. Now it is a normal week. SVB focused depositors on banks, and they realized…

June rate hike is now "game on" https://t.co/ViyomZwMvj

When Cortés arrived in what is today Mexico his men were tired. So, he burned his ship (no returning) to motivate them. Crossing now *YELLEN: UNINVOLVED IN PLANNING FOR WHAT HAPPENS IN DEFAULT CASE Is Yellen saying there will be no payment…

Updated two minutes ago. Normally, the Bill (blue) and FF (orange) curves should trade on top of each other. So, look at the gap between the two lines as a measure of stress. The May 30 and early July Bill yields are below the orange line,…

Recall that yesterday Goldman said the x-date was June 8 or 9. Then after the close Yellen pushed back and said it is still June 1. (below) Now the Republicans are pushing back on Yellen. So ... what is the x-date? The date the US defaults unless…

June 15 Bill yield is now 6.23%. https://t.co/Mxdy9IP8uk

The size of the two largest stablecoins, Tether/USDT (Blue) and Circle/USDC (orange), are shown below. They are moving opposite the conventional wisdom. --- May 11, 2022, was the day before LUNA/UST failed. This event peaked the amount of Tether…

LeBron looked more Muggle than Wizard this past week.

1/3 Earlier today bloomberg.com/news/articles/… PacWest Bancorp, one of the US lenders engulfed in the regional banking turmoil, agreed to sell a $2.6 billion portfolio of real estate construction loans amid efforts to shore up liquidity. 2/3 Two…

Crossing now ... *YELLEN: DEBT-LIMIT MEASURES COULD STILL RUN OUT SOON AS JUNE 1 *YELLEN: NOW `HIGHLY LIKELY' CASH WILL RUN OUT BY EARLY JUNE She is pushing back on Goldman bloomberg.com/news/articles/… 📷Bloomberg.com

Bill curve update as of now. June 6 bills out to 5.90% July 5 bill down to 4.78% Sell early June, but July Remember, no one knows the fair value of an x-date bill. Is it zero because it “defaulted” and has no recovery value? Or is it merely a…

Jim Bullard, the President of the St. Louis Fed, spoke this morning. Here is the red headline from Bloomberg. *BULLARD: I'M THINKING TWO MORE RATE HIKES THIS YEAR As this chart shows, the market disagrees. @dandolfa @DavidBeckworth…